Who else thought Georgia's polls were the first to close tonight? As far as polls go, I suppose that's right. But West Virginia's GOP convention today is the first to deliver any tangible Super Tuesday results. The state has 30 delegates total, 18 at-large delegates of which were at stake in today's convention (The remaining 12 will be decided on during the state's May primary.). After coming in second on the first vote (one where a majority was required to win any delegates), Huckabee managed the plurality necessary to wrap up all 18 delegates in the winner-take-all contest. Romney placed second which his campaign hopes is not a sign of things to come in other winner-take-all contests today. Second place and nothing to show for it won't get him very far.
UPDATE: Wagging a finger at Huckabee and McCain over a supposed back room deal in West Virginia won't get Romney very far either. This isn't the start Romney hoped for when the day's voting began.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday Voting: Georgia
Lines may be long in other parts of Georgia, but on Athens' east side things had slowed to a trickle by mid-afternoon. It was in and out for my wife and me since there was only one item on the ballot. The only thing that slowed things down any more than usual was having to show a picture ID, the by-product of an ever-controversial law requiring voters to show them before voting.
Elsewhere across Georgia, the morning was marked by long lines at polling stations. The long lines brought upwards of 200 complaints to the office of the Secretary of State.
In Atlanta, the Obama campaign has been investigating a phone scam that falsely offered some elderly voters the option to vote by phone. Despite that, Obama is seen as leading Clinton by a large margin in the state.
Elsewhere across Georgia, the morning was marked by long lines at polling stations. The long lines brought upwards of 200 complaints to the office of the Secretary of State.
In Atlanta, the Obama campaign has been investigating a phone scam that falsely offered some elderly voters the option to vote by phone. Despite that, Obama is seen as leading Clinton by a large margin in the state.
Super Tuesday
Some days you just don't need to over-complicate things with an inclusive title. Suffice it to say, today is a BIG day in the race for both parties' nominations. For a look back at Super Tuesdays past, have a look at CQ's take on the history.
Here's some of what's happening out there:
As I mentioned in a previous post, the year-end reports are in to the FEC. Here's a look at those numbers from The Washington Post (and a take from The Fix). The Democrats continue to hold a decided advantage in money raised (with Obama and Clinton both just north of $100 million raised for the year). So there are some interesting dynamics at play here. Countervailing forces, if you will. First of all, the leading indicators (presidential popularity, state of the economy, etc.) point toward this being a good election season for the Democrats. On top of that, there has been much more energy on the part of Democratic partisans to support and contribute to the Democratic pool of candidates than their counterparts on the GOP side have to Republican candidates. However, the way the race is shaping up, the GOP nomination could be decided well in advance of the Democratic choice. McCain looks to be in good shape to, if not wrap things up today, then to do quite well for himself while simultaneously putting his opponents at a large disadvantage. With things so evenly divided on the Democratic side, an even, or near even, split of states/delegates in today's contests could trigger a protracted battle between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination. So while all the signs indicate a Democratic year, circumstances could boost the GOP's chances in November. For that to play out, the GOP nominee would have to unify the part behind him while the Democratic contenders continue to beat each other up, providing more general election fodder. Here's the take on the subject in a post from The Caucus yesterday.
Speaking of protracted battles, CBS News and The New York Times have polled the Democratic superdelegates again. Clinton continues to hold a 2-1 edge (204-99) over Obama in that count. However, there are still 493 superdelegates who either did not provide an answer or still consider themselves undecided. That's nearly 62% of the superdelegates. So while the argument could be made that Clinton is the establishment candidate because of the support she has among those superdelegates, there are a number who haven't decided yet and could break in the other direction. I need to check and see if comparable polls were done of superdelegates in previous cycles; just to see when a majority of them broke for one candidate or another. Again, Clinton has the edge, but there are enough left out there to swing superdelegate support to Obama.
I'm going to hold back on a full-scale analysis of the polls today and yield to the coverage by Real Clear Politics (A Freudian slip there. At first I typed in Real CleaN Politics. Wishful thinking?). Now, on Sunday I had a look at McCain's poll position in February 5 states with winner-take-all delegate allocation rules. Those links are still live so you can compare and contrast the changes in those polls since Sunday evening. You'll notice:
That Romney has pulled to within striking distance of McCain in California (A virtual tie despite the endorsement of Gov. Schwarzenegger.).
The three way dead heat continues in Georgia.
A continued competitive, three way race in Missouri.
McCain's leads lengthened in the mid-Atlantic (NY & NJ).
On the Democratic side, Obama has continued to inch up closer to Clinton in national polls following his South Carolina win. If you look at th graphic on that link Obama leaped both after his win in Iowa and again after South Carolina. Are all or most of the people who supported other candidates choosing Obama? There is a reason those folks didn't back Clinton from the start.
Also on Real Clear Politics, there is an article laying out the various scenarios that could play out as the returns start to come in this evening.
For those of you who are lurkers on the site, feel free to stop by this evening and discuss the results as they come in. I'd like to get a nice discussion going and there shouldn't be any lack of things to talk about.
Finally, if you're really bored this evening and have access to Newsource 15 (UGA's TV news station out of the Grady School) be sure and look out for me on their Super Tuesday special this evening at 10pm. Here's the link to the live stream. The boredom reference is more a reflection of my appearance than an indictment of the show/station itself.
Here's some of what's happening out there:
As I mentioned in a previous post, the year-end reports are in to the FEC. Here's a look at those numbers from The Washington Post (and a take from The Fix). The Democrats continue to hold a decided advantage in money raised (with Obama and Clinton both just north of $100 million raised for the year). So there are some interesting dynamics at play here. Countervailing forces, if you will. First of all, the leading indicators (presidential popularity, state of the economy, etc.) point toward this being a good election season for the Democrats. On top of that, there has been much more energy on the part of Democratic partisans to support and contribute to the Democratic pool of candidates than their counterparts on the GOP side have to Republican candidates. However, the way the race is shaping up, the GOP nomination could be decided well in advance of the Democratic choice. McCain looks to be in good shape to, if not wrap things up today, then to do quite well for himself while simultaneously putting his opponents at a large disadvantage. With things so evenly divided on the Democratic side, an even, or near even, split of states/delegates in today's contests could trigger a protracted battle between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination. So while all the signs indicate a Democratic year, circumstances could boost the GOP's chances in November. For that to play out, the GOP nominee would have to unify the part behind him while the Democratic contenders continue to beat each other up, providing more general election fodder. Here's the take on the subject in a post from The Caucus yesterday.
Speaking of protracted battles, CBS News and The New York Times have polled the Democratic superdelegates again. Clinton continues to hold a 2-1 edge (204-99) over Obama in that count. However, there are still 493 superdelegates who either did not provide an answer or still consider themselves undecided. That's nearly 62% of the superdelegates. So while the argument could be made that Clinton is the establishment candidate because of the support she has among those superdelegates, there are a number who haven't decided yet and could break in the other direction. I need to check and see if comparable polls were done of superdelegates in previous cycles; just to see when a majority of them broke for one candidate or another. Again, Clinton has the edge, but there are enough left out there to swing superdelegate support to Obama.
I'm going to hold back on a full-scale analysis of the polls today and yield to the coverage by Real Clear Politics (A Freudian slip there. At first I typed in Real CleaN Politics. Wishful thinking?). Now, on Sunday I had a look at McCain's poll position in February 5 states with winner-take-all delegate allocation rules. Those links are still live so you can compare and contrast the changes in those polls since Sunday evening. You'll notice:
That Romney has pulled to within striking distance of McCain in California (A virtual tie despite the endorsement of Gov. Schwarzenegger.).
The three way dead heat continues in Georgia.
A continued competitive, three way race in Missouri.
McCain's leads lengthened in the mid-Atlantic (NY & NJ).
On the Democratic side, Obama has continued to inch up closer to Clinton in national polls following his South Carolina win. If you look at th graphic on that link Obama leaped both after his win in Iowa and again after South Carolina. Are all or most of the people who supported other candidates choosing Obama? There is a reason those folks didn't back Clinton from the start.
Also on Real Clear Politics, there is an article laying out the various scenarios that could play out as the returns start to come in this evening.
For those of you who are lurkers on the site, feel free to stop by this evening and discuss the results as they come in. I'd like to get a nice discussion going and there shouldn't be any lack of things to talk about.
Finally, if you're really bored this evening and have access to Newsource 15 (UGA's TV news station out of the Grady School) be sure and look out for me on their Super Tuesday special this evening at 10pm. Here's the link to the live stream. The boredom reference is more a reflection of my appearance than an indictment of the show/station itself.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Romney in Maine, Super Tuesday Voting Machines and the Super Bowl
Mitt Romney managed to get back in the win column again Saturday with a victory in the Maine Republican caucuses. So once again, Romney has bested his competition in a caucus state. That means all but an Iowa victory is separating im from having swept the caucus states thus far (Wyoming, Nevada, and Maine). Now, this isn't to suggest that Romney will sweep the caucuses on Tuesday (There are six in all: Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota.), but it is an interesting footnote to the proceedings since January 3.
Maine results. (Well, partial ones from the Maine GOP.)
The other consideration for the GOP candidates heading into Super Tuesday this week is whether those states going have winner-take-all systems of delegate allocation. Which February 5 states fall into that category and how do the polls look for the top GOP candidates there? Looking at the map from the New York Times posted early last week, these are the states (There was some skepticism among the group during the live discussion group this week as to how accurate these were. They have been checked and verified at The GreenPapers.com.):
Meanwhile with Super Tuesday just around the bend, Common Cause has released a report concerning the states most likely to have voting machine issues this week. And yes, Georgia is on there as one of the six states most likely to have "mishaps" with their machines (Arkansas, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee are the rest.). In other words, there may be some side stories that make waves come Wednesday morning other than simply who won, who lost and how many delegates each candidates has.
Also, tonight is the Super Bowl. As I did with the State of the Union address this past week, I'll ask here whether the Pats-Giants game will distract from the campaign going on across all sectors of the country. The Orange Bowl on the night of the Iowa caucuses did nothing to dampen the spirits of caucus goers there, and this won't pull people's attention away for too long. Obama is up with "local" ads for the game.
Maine results. (Well, partial ones from the Maine GOP.)
The other consideration for the GOP candidates heading into Super Tuesday this week is whether those states going have winner-take-all systems of delegate allocation. Which February 5 states fall into that category and how do the polls look for the top GOP candidates there? Looking at the map from the New York Times posted early last week, these are the states (There was some skepticism among the group during the live discussion group this week as to how accurate these were. They have been checked and verified at The GreenPapers.com.):
Arizona (53 Delegates)If we look at just these states, McCain looks to be in very good shape. He's behind in two (MA & UT), ahead but close in another three (CA, GA & MO) and comfortably ahead in the rest. That could net him 335 delegates; nearly a third of what is needed for the nomination. And that doesn't count what he's already secured and the delegates he could get from the other Super Tuesday states. Unlike on the Democratic side (which uses a proportional allocation), the GOP has some variation here. Romney could come in a respectable second in several of these states and have nothing to show for it. That puts him in a real bind as Tuesday approaches.
McCain 41% Romney 25
California (not a true winner-take-all) (173 Delegates)
McCain 37% Romney 32
Connecticut (30 Delegates)
McCain 45% Romney 23
Delaware (18 Delegates)
No recent polls (But McCain did win there in 2000.).
Georgia (not a true winner-take-all) (72 Delegates)
McCain 31% Romney 29 Huckabee 25
Massachusetts (This contest's allocation is disputed. NYT and TGP have it as proportional, while Rhodes Cook--via Paul's Larry Sabato email the other day--has it as winner-take-all. This is Romney territory anyway.) (43 Delegates)
Romney 54% McCain 29
Missouri (58 Delegates)
McCain 35% Huckabee 28 Romney 26
New Jersey (52 Delegates)
McCain 49% Romney 26
New York (101 Delegates)
McCain 51% Romney 23
Oklahoma (not a true winner-take-all) (41 Delegates)
McCain 40 Huckabee 19 Romney 17
Utah (36 Delegates)
No link available (Like Massachusetts, Utah is considered Romney country.).
*All poll numbers are from Real Clear Politics averages of the most recent polls in the states. Delegate numbers are from The New York Times.
Meanwhile with Super Tuesday just around the bend, Common Cause has released a report concerning the states most likely to have voting machine issues this week. And yes, Georgia is on there as one of the six states most likely to have "mishaps" with their machines (Arkansas, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee are the rest.). In other words, there may be some side stories that make waves come Wednesday morning other than simply who won, who lost and how many delegates each candidates has.
Also, tonight is the Super Bowl. As I did with the State of the Union address this past week, I'll ask here whether the Pats-Giants game will distract from the campaign going on across all sectors of the country. The Orange Bowl on the night of the Iowa caucuses did nothing to dampen the spirits of caucus goers there, and this won't pull people's attention away for too long. Obama is up with "local" ads for the game.
Friday, February 1, 2008
The One-on-One Debate
The two remaining Democrats reversed roles with the Republican presidential candidates in this week's debates. Whereas last week the stories were the back and forth bickering between Clinton and Obama in South Carolina followed by the GOP compliment-fest in Boca Raton, the debates of this week were marked by the exact opposite effect. The Republican debate from the Reagan Library showcased the personal exchanges between McCain and Romney (and lest we forget the ever popular Huckabee one-liners and Paul condemnations of the current administration's policies), while the Democrats kept it civil despite the concerted efforts of Wolf Blitzer's to bait the Democrats in to a "fight" last night. At one point he used the phrase naive to describe Clinton's support of what turned into the initial Iraq war authorization. That was the most blatant attempt at baiting on the part of the moderators last night, but certainly not the only one.
Here's the link to some videos of CNN's coverage last night.
And here's the blow-by-blow account of the pillow fight from The Caucus.
So what explains the switch? Sequencing may have something (or a lot) to do with this. See the other party bicker, and claim that mantle of civility. It probably isn't that easy, but I find it hard to imagine that last night's Democratic debate will do anything to change what will happen in next Tuesday's slew of delegate selection events. And that's another commentary on American politics. It is the negative ads and debate performances that alter the shape of things to come (or do a more pronounced job of it).
One other thing that I noticed last night (Other than Stevie Wonder being there. Didn't he become a citizen of the African nation of Ghana about a decade ago? Maybe he still enjoys American politics.) was that CNN has a series of debates scheduled for the end of the month in Ohio (ahead of the March 4 primary there). This may give us an answer to the question that came up in the live discussion group on Wednesday: How will the media play the results on Super Tuesday (as a delegate counting contest or a who-won-the-big-states contest)? By looking forward to back-to-back debates on February 27 and 28, CNN may be showing its hand: That they prefer the delegate counting option. It does make for a different story than we've had recently in presidential elections. At the very least CNN seemingly doesn't see the race ending on Tuesday night. That's fine by me.
The Maine GOP starts their caucuses today and continue on through Sunday. They won't be earth-shattering, but it'll give political junkies a little something to tide them over until Tuesday rolls around.
And here's another Fix take on VP speculation.
Keep in mind that Year-End Reports were due to the FEC yesterday. That will be the first real indication of where the candidates are (or were) financially. I haven't seen much if any press mention of the reports yet. Here's a little from the Boston Globe.
Here's the link to some videos of CNN's coverage last night.
And here's the blow-by-blow account of the pillow fight from The Caucus.
So what explains the switch? Sequencing may have something (or a lot) to do with this. See the other party bicker, and claim that mantle of civility. It probably isn't that easy, but I find it hard to imagine that last night's Democratic debate will do anything to change what will happen in next Tuesday's slew of delegate selection events. And that's another commentary on American politics. It is the negative ads and debate performances that alter the shape of things to come (or do a more pronounced job of it).
One other thing that I noticed last night (Other than Stevie Wonder being there. Didn't he become a citizen of the African nation of Ghana about a decade ago? Maybe he still enjoys American politics.) was that CNN has a series of debates scheduled for the end of the month in Ohio (ahead of the March 4 primary there). This may give us an answer to the question that came up in the live discussion group on Wednesday: How will the media play the results on Super Tuesday (as a delegate counting contest or a who-won-the-big-states contest)? By looking forward to back-to-back debates on February 27 and 28, CNN may be showing its hand: That they prefer the delegate counting option. It does make for a different story than we've had recently in presidential elections. At the very least CNN seemingly doesn't see the race ending on Tuesday night. That's fine by me.
The Maine GOP starts their caucuses today and continue on through Sunday. They won't be earth-shattering, but it'll give political junkies a little something to tide them over until Tuesday rolls around.
And here's another Fix take on VP speculation.
Keep in mind that Year-End Reports were due to the FEC yesterday. That will be the first real indication of where the candidates are (or were) financially. I haven't seen much if any press mention of the reports yet. Here's a little from the Boston Globe.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Edwards, Giuliani, Debates and Super Tuesday
I hope everyone is looking on today as practice for next Tuesday because there is a lot going on in the race today.
The big news that starting coming out around 9am this morning (At least that's when a student, looking up from his laptop during the beginning moments of class told me.) was that John Edwards was going to drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination. We are taught to never say never in politics (and John McCain's wild ride on the Republican side is proof of that), but I took Edwards and his campaign at their word when they said that they were in the race for the long haul (even when that message turned to being a kingmaker at the convention). Edwards' reluctance to cede the race to John Kerry in 2004 seemed to back that up. So, color me surprised to see Edwards bow out now. There is no endorsement planned, but if you believe what some of the pundits are writing (that Edwards takes away from Obama's ability to win), then Edwards dropping out now makes a tiny bit more sense.
Drop outs abound! On the GOP side, Giuliani's failed Florida strategy (skipping races rarely works) seems to have him not only on the cusp of getting out of the race but also of endorsing John McCain. Nothing is official yet, but with a debate tonight at the Ronald Reagan Library in California, Giuliani's absence would go a long way toward confirming the speculation. The two (Giuliani and McCain) have essentially switched places in this race. Giuliani has gone from national frontrunner over the summer to being out of the race before it even got to what were perceived as his strongest areas; the delegate-rich states of Super Tuesday. McCain however has gone from bottoming out over the summer to a Lazarus-style return in capturing New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Florida to become the party's frontrunner.
UPDATE:
Now the drop out and endorsement are official.
Also, I caught this on NPR today. You'd expect this kind of "using his words against him" comparison on the Daily Show. Giuliani's book comes back to haunt him. "Giuliani Failed to Heed His Own Leadership Advice"
Incidentally, that debate will be on CNN and cnn.com tonight starting at 8pm (which is interesting considering that that is during rush hour for California voters). The Democrats (sans Edwards) will debate from California the following night as well. That one also starts at 8pm(ET).
What does all this mean heading into next week's extravaganza? McCain looks to be in good shape, but you can't discount the impact of Romney's warchest. As we've moved to a national focus, this thing has moved on to the air war and that is where Romney could have a potential advantage. In the Democratic race, the constant flip flopping of victories between Obama and Clinton means that the race is in a basic dead heat moving into Super Tuesday. So which one has an advantage? Well, the release of the numbers from the FEC reports that are due tomorrow (Jan. 31) may give us an eye into who has more cash on hand and who has the advantage.
The big news that starting coming out around 9am this morning (At least that's when a student, looking up from his laptop during the beginning moments of class told me.) was that John Edwards was going to drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination. We are taught to never say never in politics (and John McCain's wild ride on the Republican side is proof of that), but I took Edwards and his campaign at their word when they said that they were in the race for the long haul (even when that message turned to being a kingmaker at the convention). Edwards' reluctance to cede the race to John Kerry in 2004 seemed to back that up. So, color me surprised to see Edwards bow out now. There is no endorsement planned, but if you believe what some of the pundits are writing (that Edwards takes away from Obama's ability to win), then Edwards dropping out now makes a tiny bit more sense.
Drop outs abound! On the GOP side, Giuliani's failed Florida strategy (skipping races rarely works) seems to have him not only on the cusp of getting out of the race but also of endorsing John McCain. Nothing is official yet, but with a debate tonight at the Ronald Reagan Library in California, Giuliani's absence would go a long way toward confirming the speculation. The two (Giuliani and McCain) have essentially switched places in this race. Giuliani has gone from national frontrunner over the summer to being out of the race before it even got to what were perceived as his strongest areas; the delegate-rich states of Super Tuesday. McCain however has gone from bottoming out over the summer to a Lazarus-style return in capturing New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Florida to become the party's frontrunner.
UPDATE:
Now the drop out and endorsement are official.
Also, I caught this on NPR today. You'd expect this kind of "using his words against him" comparison on the Daily Show. Giuliani's book comes back to haunt him. "Giuliani Failed to Heed His Own Leadership Advice"
Incidentally, that debate will be on CNN and cnn.com tonight starting at 8pm (which is interesting considering that that is during rush hour for California voters). The Democrats (sans Edwards) will debate from California the following night as well. That one also starts at 8pm(ET).
What does all this mean heading into next week's extravaganza? McCain looks to be in good shape, but you can't discount the impact of Romney's warchest. As we've moved to a national focus, this thing has moved on to the air war and that is where Romney could have a potential advantage. In the Democratic race, the constant flip flopping of victories between Obama and Clinton means that the race is in a basic dead heat moving into Super Tuesday. So which one has an advantage? Well, the release of the numbers from the FEC reports that are due tomorrow (Jan. 31) may give us an eye into who has more cash on hand and who has the advantage.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Primary Results from the Sunshine State
The Drudge Report is giving McCain an ever so slight edge via the Florida exit polls. Say what you will about Drudge, but he was calling the battleground states with surprising accuracy during the 2004 election.
The numbers from those polls:
McCain 34.3%
Romney 32.6
Giuliani 15.3
Huckabee 12
*These are not raw numbers from the actual primary. They are exit poll numbers. Keep in mind that absentee and early voting has reached new heights in Florida during the lead up to today.
The press is showing some surprising restraint (at least in my eyes) in not really saying a whole lot about the Democratic race thus far. Despite there being no delegates at stake in Florida for the Democrats, turnout has been high. Of course, as Rob rightly points out in the comments section below, there was a tax initiative on the ballot that motivated a lot people to turnout today.
7:31pm: Early results are in. Reports of a tight race between McCain and Romney were right on the mark.
For the Democrats, Clinton is enjoying a margin similar to what Obama had over her in South Carolina last weekend.
I should also add that exit polls are showing that the economy was viewed (see first post at botton) by over half of Democrats and by nearly half of all Republican primary voters are the biggest issue.
9:21pm: With 57% in on the GOP side, McCain has a four point lead.
A couple of other things:
CBS Evening News on their broadcast tonight had a striking figure concerning the number of ads McCain and Romney have run so far. Romney had a nearly 10-1 edge with 4000 some ads run to McCain's 470 or so. Predictably CBS replaced their pre-Florida results segment with post-Florida coverage on their online version of the news. The Fix made mention of the same statistic adding even more information (saying that that was just in Florida). See the fourth bullet point down for that. The Times also has a piece discussing McCain's spending lately. That may explain the shortness of cash in his coffers.
Well, as of 9:37pm, the conservative New York Times (at least when it comes to calling winners of these things and counting delegates) has called the GOP race for McCain. That should certainly help financially heading into the smörgåsbord of primaries and caucuses next Tuesday.
Here are the final results from Florida:
The numbers from those polls:
McCain 34.3%
Romney 32.6
Giuliani 15.3
Huckabee 12
*These are not raw numbers from the actual primary. They are exit poll numbers. Keep in mind that absentee and early voting has reached new heights in Florida during the lead up to today.
The press is showing some surprising restraint (at least in my eyes) in not really saying a whole lot about the Democratic race thus far. Despite there being no delegates at stake in Florida for the Democrats, turnout has been high. Of course, as Rob rightly points out in the comments section below, there was a tax initiative on the ballot that motivated a lot people to turnout today.
7:31pm: Early results are in. Reports of a tight race between McCain and Romney were right on the mark.
McCain 30.2
Romney 30.0
Giuliani 17.4
Huckabee 15.5
For the Democrats, Clinton is enjoying a margin similar to what Obama had over her in South Carolina last weekend.
Clinton 53.5%
Obama 26.1
Edwards 16.5
I should also add that exit polls are showing that the economy was viewed (see first post at botton) by over half of Democrats and by nearly half of all Republican primary voters are the biggest issue.
9:21pm: With 57% in on the GOP side, McCain has a four point lead.
McCain 35.4%For the Dems, Clinton is still up by around 20 points. Is there anyway that if Obama sneaks to within 15 points or less (not really all that likely) of the lead, that he can claim some small measure of victory? I'd lean toward no, but what are other people's thoughts?
Romney 31.4
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 13.3
A couple of other things:
CBS Evening News on their broadcast tonight had a striking figure concerning the number of ads McCain and Romney have run so far. Romney had a nearly 10-1 edge with 4000 some ads run to McCain's 470 or so. Predictably CBS replaced their pre-Florida results segment with post-Florida coverage on their online version of the news. The Fix made mention of the same statistic adding even more information (saying that that was just in Florida). See the fourth bullet point down for that. The Times also has a piece discussing McCain's spending lately. That may explain the shortness of cash in his coffers.
Well, as of 9:37pm, the conservative New York Times (at least when it comes to calling winners of these things and counting delegates) has called the GOP race for McCain. That should certainly help financially heading into the smörgåsbord of primaries and caucuses next Tuesday.
Here are the final results from Florida:
McCain 36.0%
Romney 31.1
Giuliani 14.6
Huckabee 13.5
Clinton 49.7%
Obama 33.0
Edwards 14.4
FLORIDA, More on the State of the Union and Reagan & The Beatles
It is funny to think that the Florida primary is finally here after tracking the state legislature's (and the governor's) activity so intensely last summer/fall. But here it is and there is no shortage of drama. The two man race between McCain and Romney on the Republican side is equaled to some degree by the intensity with which Democratic partisans within the state are participating despite the contest being essentially non-binding. Hillary Clinton is cutting it awfully close tonight; butting up against the DNC rules. When we spoke about the the DNC's decision to strip Florida of all its delegates and the rules regarding candidates campaigning there in the live discussion group, I think the consensus was that the viable Democratic candidates would start showing up there on January 30. Well, Clinton will be there as soon as the polls close for a rally. It is never too early to start thinking about the general election, I suppose.
I don't mean to give the GOP race in the Sunshine state short shrift (because the race couldn't be any tighter between Romney and McCain), but I have been and continue to be fascinated by how this Democratic race in Florida will play out (in the media and within the campaigns). Michigan was one thing: Clinton was the only "big name" on the ballot there, but the big three (or the big two and John Edwards) are all on the ballot in Florida. Clinton still maintains a comfortable lead in Florida.
While I'm passing out poll links, Real Clear Politics now has poll numbers for many of the Super Tuesday states (just click on the links on the left-hand sidebar).
I brought up the State of the Union in a post the other day and I tuned in last night to NBC's broadcast. Now, usually I'm a sucker for these things anyway, but last night I was intrigued by viewing the event through the lens of the current presidential race. Bush didn't mention the race but the coverage (both the shots panning the audience and the comments before and after the speech) were dripping with not so subliminal references.
A few things I noticed:
1) Who made the seating chart? And do the members of Congress have any say in where they sit? Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy were side by side following Kennedy's endorsement of the South Carolina primary winner. Also, with the above two questions in mind, what are we to make of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden sitting next to each other? I'm going to have to look into this at some point. The answer may lie in committee assignments: members of certain committees sit together.
2) Who did Mitt Romney pay to get that cushy interview spot on NBC in between the speech's conclusion and Kathleen Sebelius' Democratic response?
3) Relatedly, where was John McCain? I'm sure he too was in Florida preparing for today's last minute blitz. That and the above Romney interview were curious though. And I say this knowing full well that he may have been on one of the other networks. Being somewhat cable deprived, I didn't have access to Fox News, MSNBC or CNN, but my scan of ABC and CBS found that both had already gone to commercial while the Romney interview was taking place.
4) Speaking of Democratic Kansas governor, Sebelius, I left really impressed after she delivered the Democratic response (Good if not better than the one given by Virginia governor Tim Kaine.). I was surprised by her inclusion in some of the VP speculation lists, but that talk seems warranted after last night's effort.
5) In case you missed it in the comments section yesterday, Rich Clark had some great poll data concerning state of union viewing habits. Be sure to check it out.
Now, I realize some people may be interested in the last part of the title to this post. It isn't everyday that parallels are drawn between the 40th president and the Fab Four. Hear me out though. This idea has been floating around in my head and I want to get it down on (virtual) paper. It has been argued that The Beatles affected all the popular music that came after them. Their various, eclectic phases spawned countless groups and artists who tried to emulate to some extent and expand upon any one of the musical ideas inherent in each phase. Well, how does Reagan fit into this? Is it me or is the Republican party, at least at the presidential level, not similar to this idea? Every GOP presidential candidate since Reagan left office in 1989 has tried to play up all of some of their strengths as a natural progression to the mark that Reagan left on the political world in Washington. Look at the top four candidates in the race for the Republican nomination. McCain could be viewed as the defense proponent. Romney plays the economic conservative and Huckabee the social conservative. Finally, Guiliani had ties to the Reagan administration (that he attempted to play up at last week's debate in Boca Raton). These aren't perfect matches, but it still makes for an interesting point of discussion. Is there any noticeable decay to the Reagan legacy on GOP presidential politics?
Finally, thanks to Paul Gurian (via Jill Rickershauser) for reminding me of the excellent article and multimedia map on the delegates at stake in both parties on February 5. I read that too early yesterday and illness intervened to distract me from posting it. Anyway the map is below and here is a link to the article. Good stuff.
I don't mean to give the GOP race in the Sunshine state short shrift (because the race couldn't be any tighter between Romney and McCain), but I have been and continue to be fascinated by how this Democratic race in Florida will play out (in the media and within the campaigns). Michigan was one thing: Clinton was the only "big name" on the ballot there, but the big three (or the big two and John Edwards) are all on the ballot in Florida. Clinton still maintains a comfortable lead in Florida.
While I'm passing out poll links, Real Clear Politics now has poll numbers for many of the Super Tuesday states (just click on the links on the left-hand sidebar).
I brought up the State of the Union in a post the other day and I tuned in last night to NBC's broadcast. Now, usually I'm a sucker for these things anyway, but last night I was intrigued by viewing the event through the lens of the current presidential race. Bush didn't mention the race but the coverage (both the shots panning the audience and the comments before and after the speech) were dripping with not so subliminal references.
A few things I noticed:
1) Who made the seating chart? And do the members of Congress have any say in where they sit? Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy were side by side following Kennedy's endorsement of the South Carolina primary winner. Also, with the above two questions in mind, what are we to make of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden sitting next to each other? I'm going to have to look into this at some point. The answer may lie in committee assignments: members of certain committees sit together.
2) Who did Mitt Romney pay to get that cushy interview spot on NBC in between the speech's conclusion and Kathleen Sebelius' Democratic response?
3) Relatedly, where was John McCain? I'm sure he too was in Florida preparing for today's last minute blitz. That and the above Romney interview were curious though. And I say this knowing full well that he may have been on one of the other networks. Being somewhat cable deprived, I didn't have access to Fox News, MSNBC or CNN, but my scan of ABC and CBS found that both had already gone to commercial while the Romney interview was taking place.
4) Speaking of Democratic Kansas governor, Sebelius, I left really impressed after she delivered the Democratic response (Good if not better than the one given by Virginia governor Tim Kaine.). I was surprised by her inclusion in some of the VP speculation lists, but that talk seems warranted after last night's effort.
5) In case you missed it in the comments section yesterday, Rich Clark had some great poll data concerning state of union viewing habits. Be sure to check it out.
Now, I realize some people may be interested in the last part of the title to this post. It isn't everyday that parallels are drawn between the 40th president and the Fab Four. Hear me out though. This idea has been floating around in my head and I want to get it down on (virtual) paper. It has been argued that The Beatles affected all the popular music that came after them. Their various, eclectic phases spawned countless groups and artists who tried to emulate to some extent and expand upon any one of the musical ideas inherent in each phase. Well, how does Reagan fit into this? Is it me or is the Republican party, at least at the presidential level, not similar to this idea? Every GOP presidential candidate since Reagan left office in 1989 has tried to play up all of some of their strengths as a natural progression to the mark that Reagan left on the political world in Washington. Look at the top four candidates in the race for the Republican nomination. McCain could be viewed as the defense proponent. Romney plays the economic conservative and Huckabee the social conservative. Finally, Guiliani had ties to the Reagan administration (that he attempted to play up at last week's debate in Boca Raton). These aren't perfect matches, but it still makes for an interesting point of discussion. Is there any noticeable decay to the Reagan legacy on GOP presidential politics?
Finally, thanks to Paul Gurian (via Jill Rickershauser) for reminding me of the excellent article and multimedia map on the delegates at stake in both parties on February 5. I read that too early yesterday and illness intervened to distract me from posting it. Anyway the map is below and here is a link to the article. Good stuff.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
State of the Union
How much does Bush's speech take away from coverage during the last day of campaigning before Florida? I'll be honest: it wasn't even on my radar until I saw a reminder on one of the Sunday morning talk shows. I don't recall Clinton's last SotU in 2000 but it was on a Thursday in between Iowa and New Hampshire that year (And there were just eight days between the two then.). There may be a reason I don't recall it and it may be that I was focused completely on Iowa and New Hampshire. Will that be the case with everyone else tomorrow though?
Vice President Speculation
I hate to jump the gun on this, but since the topic came up in the live discussion group this week and since there has been an increasing amount of chatter among the online pundits, I'll make an exception. So, who are the possible VP choices on either side? Well, being that we may be four or five months away from knowing, it is open season on guessing.
The Fix over at Washington Post had a great post earlier this week naming a list of folks on both sides who may figure into the decisions of the eventual nominees. Have a look here and add any other ones not included in the comments section with reasoning behind their inclusion. Notice Georgia's own Sonny Perdue is mentioned as a possibility on the GOP end.
Vice presidential choices were also on the mind of at least one South Carolina voter this week as Bill Clinton was asked in a town hall meeting there to discuss the possibilities. While refusing to do so he went through a list of models for choosing the second in command. It was an interesting approach from someone who has been there. The Caucus outlines the ones he brought up: the balancing the ticket option, choosing the person who finished second to unify the party and the pick someone similar with different strengths.
The Fix over at Washington Post had a great post earlier this week naming a list of folks on both sides who may figure into the decisions of the eventual nominees. Have a look here and add any other ones not included in the comments section with reasoning behind their inclusion. Notice Georgia's own Sonny Perdue is mentioned as a possibility on the GOP end.
Vice presidential choices were also on the mind of at least one South Carolina voter this week as Bill Clinton was asked in a town hall meeting there to discuss the possibilities. While refusing to do so he went through a list of models for choosing the second in command. It was an interesting approach from someone who has been there. The Caucus outlines the ones he brought up: the balancing the ticket option, choosing the person who finished second to unify the party and the pick someone similar with different strengths.
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