Democratic Change Commission Set to Meet on Oct. 24 in Washington

From Frank Leone at DemRulz:

The DNC Change Commission, which is reviewing the Democratic Party Presidential candidate nomination process will meet on Saturday, October 24, 2009, at 9:30 (tentative) at the Capital Hilton, 1001 16th Street, NW, Washington DC. The Commission will continue to focus on state nomination process calender, superdelegates, and caucuses. I plan to attend and report.

FHQ might [MIGHT] follow Leone's lead and attend. I'll have to check my schedule around that time. I'll keep you posted.


Recent Posts:
More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

Iowa seems safe for 2012; at least its presidential caucuses are in the eyes of one Iowan on the Republican Party's Temporary Delegate Selection Committee.

"The focus of the discussion has moved beyond Iowa to what comes after it, [Temporary Delegate Selection Committee member Brian]Kennedy said after Monday's meeting in Washington."

In other words, the bigger fight ahead of the 2012 nomination cycle from both parties' perspectives is not who is first (or among the first) but preventing an early logjam similar to 2008's Super Tuesday again instead. Iowa and New Hampshire are simply better able to make a move to early January or even December of the year prior to the election year than are other states.

"Everyone has their parochial issues, but I think they've decided it's a fight not worth waging," Kennedy said. "There's a recognition you have to have a broad consensus to get a two-thirds vote of the RNC. If you do something as dramatic as changing Iowa and New Hampshire, that might make it difficult to achieve the two-thirds."

But what's under consideration by the 15 members of the Republican panel is what is the most interesting.

"We've probably looked at every proposition made over the last decade," Kennedy said, including holding a series of primaries or regional primaries or a national primary where Republicans would vote for their top three choices to narrow the field. Nothing has been ruled out, but he senses little interest in upsetting the Iowa-New Hampshire-South Carolina apple cart.

Regional primaries are nothing new, but this idea of a national primary with a top three vote is a new twist. I don't know if what the Republicans have in mind is an instant runoff system. That would certainly add a new element to the selection of presidential nominees.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

[Click to Enlarge]

New Jersey's race for governor seems to be tightening some. FHQ has long been moderately skeptical of Chris Christie's return from a midsummer's polling peak. But now that one of the main hold outs -- one of the polls that has consistently shown the Republican up by near double digits (or more) leads -- has indicated that the race is closer, strange things may indeed be afoot at the Circle K. Given that Governor Corzine is still mired in the high 30s, this seems to be pointing toward independent candidate Chris Daggett having a significant impact on the outcome of this race.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Quinnipiac	Sept. 23-28, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1188 likely voters	39	43	12	6

But let's not read too much into one poll. The truth of the matter is that this poll has very little effect on the FHQ averages for the race. In fact, the numbers have basically flatlined for the two major party candidates since the previous poll -- last week's Democracy Corp poll. Where does that leave us with less than five weeks left in the race? Well, Christie is slowly dropping but Corzine isn't going much of anywhere. The governor continues to occupy a spot in the 37-39% range and doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast. The question for him now is, "Can Daggett pull enough away from Christie to keep the incumbent in office?" With a little over a month left, we're about to find out.

[Click to Enlarge]

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

[Click to Enlarge]

Which is it?

Deeds continues to close in...

or

News 7/Survey USA poll shows frontrunners in November elections

That is the question with two new and divergent polls out today in the Virginia governors race. FHQ is of the opinion that it doesn't have to be an either or proposition. Let's look at the facts:

1) Obviously the PPP poll is more in line with recent polling showing a tighter race. McDonnell is still ahead and is right below the 50% mark.

2) The Survey USA poll, then, appears to be an outlier, but in actuality is fairly closely aligned with the other polls the firm has done on this race since July. The poll at the beginning of September showed a 54-42 McDonnell lead and this current poll matches the former state attorney general's high water polling mark from a Survey USA poll in July. That July poll was also the first poll to show McDonnell breaking away from Deeds following the Democrat's primary victory in early June. That trend survived until about a week into September.

But is it an outlier or not?

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Sept. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	631 likely voters	41	55	4
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Sept. 25-28, 2009	+/- 4.1%	576 likely voters	43	48	9

One really has to look no further than the three areas the Republican Governors Association pointed to this morning to see:

1) The number of Ds to Rs.
2) The spread among women.
3) The spread among independents.

Let's look at the numbers:

In the PPP poll:
1) The sample was 37% Democrats and 29% Republicans.
2) Deeds led by 8 points among women.
3) The Democratic state senator trailed McDonnell by 16 among independents (but that was down from 29 points with the same group a month ago.).

In the Survey USA poll:
1) The sample was 37% Republican and 32% Democratic.
2) McDonnell led by 10 points with women.
3) McDonnell also led by 24 points with independents.

On its face, the Democrat-to-Republican ratio likely explains much of the difference between the two polls. But the numbers among women in the Survey USA poll don't jibe with what has been witnessed in some of the other recent polls showing Deeds making strides among the group. The gap has been relatively small by gender gap standards, but Deeds has seemingly pulled ahead. That divergence doesn't hold with the Survey USA independent numbers. The Insider Advantage polls from late last week showed a similar (+20 point) advantage for McDonnell and, indeed, the previous PPP poll showed a McDonnell edge greater than that.

[Click to Enlarge]

Which is it then? Well, the PPP is more in line with recent polling while the internals from Survey USA are not (though they paint a consistent picture throughout the firm's polling in the race). The fact is, the thesis seems to have had some impact, but is hardly costing McDonnell the race. The Republican is still hovering around 50% in FHQ's averages of the race and Deeds is further back hoping the undecideds in the race break for him in the end.


Recent Posts:
Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

It has been quiet today on the Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee (TDSC) front, and as I said yesterday, FHQ was not bullish on any groundbreaking news coming out of this meeting. Again, they aren't set to have the rules for 2012 in place until next summer. However, not content to just say there was a meeting and leave it at that, I had a back and forth with former Michigan GOP chair, Saul Anuzis.

My question? "Is there any consensus on the TDSC to work with the Democratic Party to bring about meaningful presidential primary reform?"

There was a report that James Roosevelt (former head of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee) and Bill Bennett (former head of the GOP equivalent) talked up the need for coordination on this issue over the summer, but remained skeptical about how widespread that was within the parties. Now, all Anuzis said when he responded was, "Yes, in progress." This is still more evidence that both parties recognize the need to coordinate their efforts if they are going to change the system in any significant way.


Recent Posts:
Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

A couple of weeks ago, FHQ looked into the impact that early voting might have in this year's gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. The conclusion there was that the impact would be minimal. What was glossed over in the process, though (and something FHQ was called on via email), was that New Jersey has a new law on the books this year allowing for no excuses absentee voting by mail. The 2009 gubernatorial election in the Garden state will be the first time this gets a statewide test.

The question, as posed before, is, "Will Republican Chris Christie be able to utilize the enthusiasm gap -- as manifested in recent polls' likely voter models -- to bank early votes and put Corzine on the defensive* down the stretch?"

Though the potential is there for mail-in absentee voting to have an impact, there has not been any overt push by either campaign on that front. Ballots can start going out as early as tomorrow, though (five weeks before the election), so early voting chatter may ramp up.

*This would require more of a last minute get-out-the-vote effort than if votes had been banked early on.

Hat tip to Paul Gronke at Election Updates for the link to the New Jersey Courier opinion piece.


Recent Posts:
Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/25/09)

Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

This is just a reminder that the Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee is meeting today in Washington. There are a couple of members of the Committee who have Twitter accounts that you can follow:

Saul Anuzis: @sanuzis
Fredi Simpson: @fredi_simpson

I sent Anuzis (the former Michigan GOP chair and nominee for the national position this past January) a tweet last week asking him what was on the agenda and he playfully responded, "Everything." His twitter feed will be a good place to look for quick information on the proceedings, though. He updates with feverish regularity (Simpson's pace is far slower.).

Regardless, these are the places to check first for Temporary Delegate Selection Committee news. We'll likely get information here before it trickles down to the actual news.

UPDATE: FHQ should probably also note that no final decisions on 2012 presidential primary reform are due out of this meeting today. We are hoping for a progress report, though.


Recent Posts:
FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/25/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/25/09)

FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

I caught Jay Leno's new show last night for the first time since he hit prime time. Well, I saw the first few minutes of it at least. I'm not a real Leno fan (His humor is too tame for my liking.), but The Office led to Community (I'm sorry. I'm just not at a point where I can voluntarily say no to Chevy Chase. I've got a problem.) led to Leno. In that short period I was struck by Leno's new hair. I haven't seen the guy in a while, but he had aged somewhat and the hair; I couldn't shake the hair. At that moment it hit me. Jay Leno now bears an uncanny resemble to Ross Perot's 1992 running mate, Admiral James Stockdale.


















Well, you knew I had to bring something political into this, right?

And the rest of the week in fun?

Obama is good. Obama is very good. ...at smiling the exact same way.

Barack Obama's amazingly consistent smile from Eric Spiegelman on Vimeo.

Won't somebody please think of the insurance company executives?

Protect Insurance Companies PSA from Will Ferrell

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/25/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/25/09)

2012 Presidential Trial Heats: PPP (Sept. '09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/25/09)

[Click to Enlarge]

The story in the Virginia governors race currently is what will Bob McDonnell's campaign do to counteract the effect the former state attorney general's master's thesis has had on the dynamics of his contest with Democrat, Creigh Deeds. The answer this week has been to fight back, taking the thesis issue on directly, and attempt to raise the specter of tax and spend Democrats in Deeds' transportation agenda. And given the post-debate back-and-forth over taxes and the transportation plan, that is probably a wise move on the part of the McDonnell campaign.

Still, polling continues to show a tight race to become the Old Dominion's next governor. That was highlighted again by the release of a new Insider Advantage poll that showed McDonnell with a lead of a little less than four points. And as was the case in the Washington Post poll that came out earlier in the week, this one seems to be showing a shift of women into the Deeds' column. Deeds lead among women here by just under three points.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Insider Advantage	Sept. 24, 2009	+/- 3.8%	602 likely voters	44.2	47.9	7.3

The thing to keep in mind, though, how much room McDonnell and Deeds have to grow their support. Deeds is getting nearly 90% of Democrats (about a third of the respondents) while McDonnell has a shade under 80% of Republicans on his side. The Republican is also winning among independents by over 20 points. If Deeds is to catch up he will likely have to keep pounding McDonnell on the thesis and making the case to independents that the Republican is too extreme. But 20 points is a lot to make up.

And we are just now entering a period where the tax issue may be settling in as well. There was a lag between when the thesis revelation took place and when it seemingly showed up in the polling. If the tax/transportation issue has gained any traction, that may manifest itself in next week's polling.

As for FHQ's averages of the race, the margin is now down to seven points and closing.

[Click to Enlarge]

Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/25/09)

2012 Presidential Trial Heats: PPP (Sept. '09)

PPP 2012 Presidential Poll: Huckabee Still Does Best, but All GOP Candidates Drop Off Against Obama

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/25/09)

[Click to Enlarge]

We're close to entering the final month of Campaign '09 and the polling in New Jersey and Virginia is starting to pick up as a result. There were a couple of new polls out in New Jersey and depending on your perspective both are problematic. FHQ won't pile on Strategic Vision any more than has already been the case (see here and here*) except to accuse Strategic Vision of stealing our numbers -- jokingly of course.

...I think.

The first thing we thought here at FHQ upon seeing those numbers was, "Hey, those are the same as our averages in the race right now. What a coincidence."

Later it became, "Was that a coincidence?" Of course it is, but my real point here is that the inclusion of that data has absolutely no impact on the averages. They basically just serve to reinforce the preexisting state of the race. We'll leave the Strategic Vision poll in the averages until something is definitively proven one way or the other. Innocent until proven guilty, right?

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Strategic Vision	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3%	800 likely voters	38	46	8	8
Democracy Corp [pdf]	Sept. 22-23, 2009	+/- 4%	601 likely voters	39	40	11	9

The other poll from the Garden state came from Democracy Corp. Now, there isn't anything wrong with the GQR poll other than the fact that the firm leans Democratic. The firm has consistently shown a closer race than most other polling outfits, and that doesn't change here. What this and Democracy Corp's other polls seem to imply, given that Corzine continually hover at or below the 40% mark across these and most other polls, is that the support for independent candidate Chris Daggett is coming at the expense of Chris Christie and not Jon Corzine (as has seemed the case in other polling). Still, the poll certainly seems to accurately show the position Corzine is in, but is underestimating Christie's support relative to other recent polls.

How does that affect the Republican candidate's fortunes in FHQ's assessment of the race? Well, it certainly hasn't trailed off like what Pollster is showing (Christie = 43.7%)**, but it has dropped. Throughout our averaging of the polls in this race, Christie has yet to drop below the 46% mark, but is on the cusp of doing so now. [In fact, the Republican technically has dropped below that point because the average rounded up from 45.99.] However, Corzine has been unable to counteract that decrease from his opponent with an increase of his own. And that continues to be the story in this race. Now, Christie's decline may ultimately wind up meaning that undecideds and some Daggett supporters break toward Corzine at the last minute, but we're a long way off from seeing that. For now, Corzine is still trying to figure out how to break 40%.

[Click to Enlarge]

*I had the same question as in one of FiveThirtyEight's early comments to that post. It is fine to compare Strategic Vision to the average across all polling firms but how to other firms stack up under similar isolated scrutiny.
**The Christie decline at Pollster is largely attributable to both the Democracy Corp polls and their inclusion of the Neighborhood Research polls as well. And FHQ is excluding the polls from the latter.


Recent Posts:
2012 Presidential Trial Heats: PPP (Sept. '09)

PPP 2012 Presidential Poll: Huckabee Still Does Best, but All GOP Candidates Drop Off Against Obama

Tracking Pawlenty for 2012