FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

How widespread is Wii use on the Hill? Is this a generational thing? We need to have some research done on this.

Pat, in addition to being a former high school class mate of mine was also the youngest member of Congress when he was elected in 2004 and held that distinction until after Aaron Schock was elected last year.




And I can't let this one pass (too funny on a Friday). Hat tip to Alex Koppelman for the link.



Enough fun. I'll have a New Jersey update up sometime this evening and will probably get to the monthly update of the 2012 GOP presidential candidates on Twitter first.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/30/09)

Democratic Change Commission Set to Meet on Oct. 24 in Washington

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

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The other shoe dropped today on the day of the first gubernatorial debate in New Jersey. Yesterday it was Quinnipiac that showed a closer race after having shown Chris Christie comfortably ahead for much of the year. Today it is Monmouth/Gannett, that's following suit. Of course, Daily Kos/Research 2000 are going to show an equally tight race in the morning.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Sept. 24-29, 2009	+/- 4.3%	527 likely voters	40	43	8	8

Again, though, this is evidence not of a Corzine comeback (He has inched into the 39-40% range this week.), but of Republican Chris Christie's decline from a summer peak in the lower 50s. Independent candidate Chris Daggett initially seemed to be taking away support from Corzine, but as Christie drops and Daggett remains around the same level in the polls, on its face at least, it appears as if he may be drawing more support from the Republican.

We'll have to see what the internals on the Kos poll look like in the morning.

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/30/09)

Democratic Change Commission Set to Meet on Oct. 24 in Washington

More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/30/09)

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FHQ typically eschews an out of context glance at one single poll, all by its lonesome. Taken in context, though, single polls can be of use. Take for example the polling numbers released this week in the Virginia governors race. On Tuesday, we got some fairly divergent numbers from Public Policy Polling and Survey USA. The former showed a tighter race, while the latter broke with the trend established across other recent polls, showing a significant berth between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds. If you average the two polls (without any kind of weighting), you end up with a 51.5-42 McDonnell edge. That outcome was echoed in the Rasmussen poll released on Wednesday.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Rasmussen	Sept. 29, 2009	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	42	51	7

Is that where this race stands? Possibly, but by FHQ's measure that overestimates McDonnell's position in the race but is consistent on Deeds. The underlying dynamic in this race is based on who undecideds side with (whether it will break toward one candidate or be split fairly evenly) and how well each side is able to turnout its voters. McDonnell has been mostly stable over the last few weeks in FHQ's averages and comfortably ahead of his Democratic rival. The Republican has been in the 48-49% range while most of the movement has been with Deeds. That continues to be the story. With less than five weeks left in the campaign, Deeds is faced with having to swing those undecideds and independents (something with which the thesis matter seemed to be helping) and energize his base of voters.

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Recent Posts:
Democratic Change Commission Set to Meet on Oct. 24 in Washington

More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

Democratic Change Commission Set to Meet on Oct. 24 in Washington

From Frank Leone at DemRulz:

The DNC Change Commission, which is reviewing the Democratic Party Presidential candidate nomination process will meet on Saturday, October 24, 2009, at 9:30 (tentative) at the Capital Hilton, 1001 16th Street, NW, Washington DC. The Commission will continue to focus on state nomination process calender, superdelegates, and caucuses. I plan to attend and report.

FHQ might [MIGHT] follow Leone's lead and attend. I'll have to check my schedule around that time. I'll keep you posted.


Recent Posts:
More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

Iowa seems safe for 2012; at least its presidential caucuses are in the eyes of one Iowan on the Republican Party's Temporary Delegate Selection Committee.

"The focus of the discussion has moved beyond Iowa to what comes after it, [Temporary Delegate Selection Committee member Brian]Kennedy said after Monday's meeting in Washington."

In other words, the bigger fight ahead of the 2012 nomination cycle from both parties' perspectives is not who is first (or among the first) but preventing an early logjam similar to 2008's Super Tuesday again instead. Iowa and New Hampshire are simply better able to make a move to early January or even December of the year prior to the election year than are other states.

"Everyone has their parochial issues, but I think they've decided it's a fight not worth waging," Kennedy said. "There's a recognition you have to have a broad consensus to get a two-thirds vote of the RNC. If you do something as dramatic as changing Iowa and New Hampshire, that might make it difficult to achieve the two-thirds."

But what's under consideration by the 15 members of the Republican panel is what is the most interesting.

"We've probably looked at every proposition made over the last decade," Kennedy said, including holding a series of primaries or regional primaries or a national primary where Republicans would vote for their top three choices to narrow the field. Nothing has been ruled out, but he senses little interest in upsetting the Iowa-New Hampshire-South Carolina apple cart.

Regional primaries are nothing new, but this idea of a national primary with a top three vote is a new twist. I don't know if what the Republicans have in mind is an instant runoff system. That would certainly add a new element to the selection of presidential nominees.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

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New Jersey's race for governor seems to be tightening some. FHQ has long been moderately skeptical of Chris Christie's return from a midsummer's polling peak. But now that one of the main hold outs -- one of the polls that has consistently shown the Republican up by near double digits (or more) leads -- has indicated that the race is closer, strange things may indeed be afoot at the Circle K. Given that Governor Corzine is still mired in the high 30s, this seems to be pointing toward independent candidate Chris Daggett having a significant impact on the outcome of this race.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Quinnipiac	Sept. 23-28, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1188 likely voters	39	43	12	6

But let's not read too much into one poll. The truth of the matter is that this poll has very little effect on the FHQ averages for the race. In fact, the numbers have basically flatlined for the two major party candidates since the previous poll -- last week's Democracy Corp poll. Where does that leave us with less than five weeks left in the race? Well, Christie is slowly dropping but Corzine isn't going much of anywhere. The governor continues to occupy a spot in the 37-39% range and doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast. The question for him now is, "Can Daggett pull enough away from Christie to keep the incumbent in office?" With a little over a month left, we're about to find out.

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

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Which is it?

Deeds continues to close in...

or

News 7/Survey USA poll shows frontrunners in November elections

That is the question with two new and divergent polls out today in the Virginia governors race. FHQ is of the opinion that it doesn't have to be an either or proposition. Let's look at the facts:

1) Obviously the PPP poll is more in line with recent polling showing a tighter race. McDonnell is still ahead and is right below the 50% mark.

2) The Survey USA poll, then, appears to be an outlier, but in actuality is fairly closely aligned with the other polls the firm has done on this race since July. The poll at the beginning of September showed a 54-42 McDonnell lead and this current poll matches the former state attorney general's high water polling mark from a Survey USA poll in July. That July poll was also the first poll to show McDonnell breaking away from Deeds following the Democrat's primary victory in early June. That trend survived until about a week into September.

But is it an outlier or not?

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Sept. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	631 likely voters	41	55	4
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Sept. 25-28, 2009	+/- 4.1%	576 likely voters	43	48	9

One really has to look no further than the three areas the Republican Governors Association pointed to this morning to see:

1) The number of Ds to Rs.
2) The spread among women.
3) The spread among independents.

Let's look at the numbers:

In the PPP poll:
1) The sample was 37% Democrats and 29% Republicans.
2) Deeds led by 8 points among women.
3) The Democratic state senator trailed McDonnell by 16 among independents (but that was down from 29 points with the same group a month ago.).

In the Survey USA poll:
1) The sample was 37% Republican and 32% Democratic.
2) McDonnell led by 10 points with women.
3) McDonnell also led by 24 points with independents.

On its face, the Democrat-to-Republican ratio likely explains much of the difference between the two polls. But the numbers among women in the Survey USA poll don't jibe with what has been witnessed in some of the other recent polls showing Deeds making strides among the group. The gap has been relatively small by gender gap standards, but Deeds has seemingly pulled ahead. That divergence doesn't hold with the Survey USA independent numbers. The Insider Advantage polls from late last week showed a similar (+20 point) advantage for McDonnell and, indeed, the previous PPP poll showed a McDonnell edge greater than that.

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Which is it then? Well, the PPP is more in line with recent polling while the internals from Survey USA are not (though they paint a consistent picture throughout the firm's polling in the race). The fact is, the thesis seems to have had some impact, but is hardly costing McDonnell the race. The Republican is still hovering around 50% in FHQ's averages of the race and Deeds is further back hoping the undecideds in the race break for him in the end.


Recent Posts:
Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

Update on Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting

It has been quiet today on the Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee (TDSC) front, and as I said yesterday, FHQ was not bullish on any groundbreaking news coming out of this meeting. Again, they aren't set to have the rules for 2012 in place until next summer. However, not content to just say there was a meeting and leave it at that, I had a back and forth with former Michigan GOP chair, Saul Anuzis.

My question? "Is there any consensus on the TDSC to work with the Democratic Party to bring about meaningful presidential primary reform?"

There was a report that James Roosevelt (former head of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee) and Bill Bennett (former head of the GOP equivalent) talked up the need for coordination on this issue over the summer, but remained skeptical about how widespread that was within the parties. Now, all Anuzis said when he responded was, "Yes, in progress." This is still more evidence that both parties recognize the need to coordinate their efforts if they are going to change the system in any significant way.


Recent Posts:
Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

Impact of Early Voting in New Jersey: A Follow-Up

A couple of weeks ago, FHQ looked into the impact that early voting might have in this year's gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. The conclusion there was that the impact would be minimal. What was glossed over in the process, though (and something FHQ was called on via email), was that New Jersey has a new law on the books this year allowing for no excuses absentee voting by mail. The 2009 gubernatorial election in the Garden state will be the first time this gets a statewide test.

The question, as posed before, is, "Will Republican Chris Christie be able to utilize the enthusiasm gap -- as manifested in recent polls' likely voter models -- to bank early votes and put Corzine on the defensive* down the stretch?"

Though the potential is there for mail-in absentee voting to have an impact, there has not been any overt push by either campaign on that front. Ballots can start going out as early as tomorrow, though (five weeks before the election), so early voting chatter may ramp up.

*This would require more of a last minute get-out-the-vote effort than if votes had been banked early on.

Hat tip to Paul Gronke at Election Updates for the link to the New Jersey Courier opinion piece.


Recent Posts:
Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/25/09)

Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee Meeting Today

This is just a reminder that the Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee is meeting today in Washington. There are a couple of members of the Committee who have Twitter accounts that you can follow:

Saul Anuzis: @sanuzis
Fredi Simpson: @fredi_simpson

I sent Anuzis (the former Michigan GOP chair and nominee for the national position this past January) a tweet last week asking him what was on the agenda and he playfully responded, "Everything." His twitter feed will be a good place to look for quick information on the proceedings, though. He updates with feverish regularity (Simpson's pace is far slower.).

Regardless, these are the places to check first for Temporary Delegate Selection Committee news. We'll likely get information here before it trickles down to the actual news.

UPDATE: FHQ should probably also note that no final decisions on 2012 presidential primary reform are due out of this meeting today. We are hoping for a progress report, though.


Recent Posts:
FHQ Friday Fun: Separated at Birth?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/25/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/25/09)