Remember that Defense Authorization Bill That Could Affect the Timing of Primaries?

Yeah, this bill.* Well, it looks as if S1390 will be voted on in conference today. The Senate version contains the provision that would require states to mail out absentee ballots at least 45 days prior to the general election (... a move that would cause September primary states -- not presidential primaries -- to be shifted to earlier dates to comply). The House bill for defense authorization did not contain this provision, so the conference vote will determine whether it is included.

Tracking...

Hat tip to Ballot Access News for the link.

*The original bill discussed was S1415, but the 45 day rules outlined in that bill seem to have been added into S1390.


Recent Posts:
Predicting Presidential Elections from Biographical Information

The 2012 Presidential Candidates: Pawlenty and Petraeus

State of the Race: New Jersey (10/6/09)

Predicting Presidential Elections from Biographical Information

Why crunch a bunch of numbers via regression to forecast a presidential election, when the candidates' biographical data seemingly gets you closer to the actual results? I don't know. This won't put number crunchers out of business (Good, I didn't waste 2008 after all!), but the findings from a study by Armstrong and Graefe do shed light on an interesting new avenue by which elections outcomes can be predicted. Here's how they constructed their model:

"We created a list of 49 cues from biographical information about candidates that were expected to have an influence on the election outcome. Then, we estimated whether a cue has a positive or negative influence on the election outcome. ... We distinguished two types of cues: (1) Yes / no cues record whether a candidate shows a certain characteristic or not. (2) More / less cues are more complex as they also incorporate information about the relative value of the cue for the candidates that run against each other in a particular election. In general, the candidate who achieved a more favorable value on a cue was assigned a value of 1 and 0 otherwise. For more information on the coding see Appendix 1. Finally, the sum of cue values for each candidate in a particular election determined his PollyBio index score (PB)."

And what did that yield? Out of the 28 elections between 1900 and 2008, the candidate with the highest PB index score won 25 times (see below).

Source: Armstrong and Graefe (2009). "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates"

My first thought was, "I'll bet they missed the close ones." Well, those are the types of elections most of the forecasting models have the hardest time predicting. But that wasn't necessarily the case here. The Armstrong and Graefe model missed 1948 (Truman), 1976 (Carter) and 1992 (Clinton) and on the former two had company from other noted forecasting models. The only notable miss was Clinton's election in 1992.

"PollyBio failed in predicting the correct winner for the three elections in 1948, 1976, and 1992, in each of which an incumbent president was running. A look at the data helps to explain the failure for these three elections. Gerald Ford in 1976 and George Bush in 1992, who were both wrongly predicted to win, had particularly strong biographies. For our set of ‘yes / no’ cues, which did not include relative measures between candidates (like height, intelligence, or attractiveness), Ford and Bush achieved the highest score of all 56 candidates in our sample (together with Theodore Roosevelt in 1904 and William McKinley in 1900). By comparison, Harry Truman, who PollyBio failed in predicting to win the 1948 election, scored particularly low on the same set of cues. Being the only U.S. president after 1897 who did not earn a college degree, Truman achieved the lowest score of all incumbents in the sample. Among all candidates, only three achieved a lower score."

What was the common theme? A switch in power from one party to the other? They are all Democrats -- Southern Democrats at that (Fine Missouri's a border state.). No, those weren't it. All three elections involved incumbents. The model seems to do better in open seat races than in those where incumbents were involved.

So why wait for election day in 2012? Start comparing the bios of the prospective Republican candidates against Obama now. Who stacks up best? (My guess is Romney or Gingrich.) Hey, it is a race that involves an incumbent.

Hat tip to Political Wire for the link.


Recent Posts:
The 2012 Presidential Candidates: Pawlenty and Petraeus

State of the Race: New Jersey (10/6/09)

Here's what things would have looked like in New Jersey had the Rasmussen poll been released tomorrow.

The 2012 Presidential Candidates: Pawlenty and Petraeus

Jonathan Bernstein beat me to this, but this is something that I have thought more and more about recently. Why are members of the press and the punditocracy going out of their way to pretend that Tim Pawlenty is not running for president? As Jonathan noted:

"No, actually, it [not seeking a third gubernatorial term, starting a PAC, etc.] does mean he's running for president. It doesn't mean he'll still be running by the time we get to the Ames straw poll, and doesn't mean he'll formally announce a candidacy or wind up contesting primaries and caucuses. For now, though, Pawlenty is running for president, and there's no point in observers keeping to the fictions that candidates must observe (because of political convention, but also because of campaign finance rules)."

Is there anyone out there who thinks Pawlenty is not running for 2012? He may not be running in 2012, but he's aiming for it.

It's funny, John Zaller (UCLA political scientist) was at UGA about 18 months ago for a lecture and discussed the underlying model from The Party Decides. As he and his co-authors developed the model, Mark Warner served as the ideal combination of appeals to the various wings (interests, elites) of the Democratic Party. And it certainly looked in 2005-2006 as if Warner was going to run. He had finished his time as governor in Virginia, he had established a PAC and ventured onto the speaking circuit. Of course, not even six months after that appearance before the Netroots, Warner was out. Was Warner running for 2008? Yes, but he didn't end up running in 2008.

And Pawlenty doesn't even have a Hillary Clinton-type looming as the assumed standard bearer for the party.

And Petraeus?

Well, earlier in the week, The New York Times raised the possibility of a general with a smaller voice in/with a new administration being motivated to run against that administration in 2012. I'll admit that is an interesting theory -- it has definitely been talked about -- but even if his role has been diminished on matters such as Afghanistan, wouldn't there have to be a fundamental shift in the public's focus from domestic to foreign policy issues for the general to be an effective candidate? If Afghanistan deteriorates to the point that it supersedes the economy as the main issue in 2012 (and I suppose it could), then maybe. But what kind of chops does Petraeus have on domestic issues or more importantly economic matters? Is it just me or am I missing something here? Now, he could be a solid candidate, but we know nothing about his stances on things on the home front.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey (10/6/09)

Here's what things would have looked like in New Jersey had the Rasmussen poll been released tomorrow.

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/5/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey (10/6/09)

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It is always one thing to say you're gaining on your competition, but to actually get in a position to surpass him or her is another thing entirely. And while Jon Corzine hasn't exactly been gaining on Chris Christie in the polls so much as Christie has been sliding, the incumbent is now within striking distance. Of all the poll releases since (the completely arbitrary date of) September 21, all six have shown a race within four points. [And depending on the sample sizes, all are within the margin of error.] And in the Fairleigh Dickinson poll out today, Jon Corzine has his first poll lead since January. One could say it has been a roller coaster ride. It has; just not for Corzine, who in the two polls released today reached the high water mark or his polling support this entire year. Despite that, Corzine has been stuck for the better part of the year in the 37-38% range in most polls while Chris Christie has been the one to see a dramatic rise into the 50% range and a subsequent fall since.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 5, 2009	+/- 4%	750 likely voters	44	47	6	3
Fairleigh Dickinson [pdf]	Sept. 28-Oct. 5, 2009	+/- 4%	667 likely voters	44	43	4	5

Before we look at the broader picture, we need to make a side note about the Fairleigh Dickinson poll and Chris Daggett*. The independent candidate received 4% in the poll, but in a split sample question that named either Daggett or another independent candidate, Gary Steele, directly (as opposed to having either candidate volunteered by the respondent in the full sample question), Daggett garnered 17% of the vote. Steele pulled in 12%. In other words, there appears to be some apprehension among likely voters concerning the two major party candidates. The reason that FHQ used the volunteered Daggett results over the split sample results was that the split sample size was so small for a New Jersey-wide poll. In the interest of transparency, though, the results for that question (Corzine 38, Christie 37, Daggett 17) yielded averages of Corzine 38.7%, Christie 45.8% and Daggett 7.9%. The gap, then, between the Corzine and Christie would be the same, albeit with both candidates a sliver under where they are in the graphic above.

So where does that leave this race? Things certainly are tightening, but FHQ's graduated weighted average continues to show a pretty good lead for Christie. It is still above seven points, but only barely so. The remarkable thing is that now it is Christie who is basically in the same position he was in back in June following his primary victory. Meanwhile, Corzine, who was stuck on the line between 37 and 38 all summer is the candidate who is gaining (both recently and relative to his comparable numbers in June). Christie may be ahead, then, but that margin continues to shrink, or will if subsequent polls continue to show these dead heats.

...and there is no indication yet that we won't continue to see that. That makes for an interesting last month to this particular race.

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*Also note that Daggett has now been added to both the header graphic and the trendline graphic immediately above.


Recent Posts:
Here's what things would have looked like in New Jersey had the Rasmussen poll been released tomorrow.

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/5/09)

Wow! Who Knew Independents and Libertarians (Among Others) Were Non-Partisan?

Here's what things would have looked like in New Jersey had the Rasmussen poll been released tomorrow.

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An update with the Fairleigh Dickinson and Rasmussen poll results is on its way.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/5/09)

Wow! Who Knew Independents and Libertarians (Among Others) Were Non-Partisan?

Rove on Pawlenty in 2012

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/5/09)

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One week further down the gubernatorial campaign trail in the Old Dominion and the picture looks the same.

...at least from Survey USA. The polling firm continues to show a double digit lead for Bob McDonnell. However, this is the closest the race has been in the series of polls Survey USA has done in the Virginia gubernatorial race since the two polls immediately prior to the June 9 Democratic primary (leads of one point and four points for McDonnell, respectively). But minimally closing the gap yet remaining over ten points back is a small consolation to the Deeds campaign as the contest enters the final four weeks. FHQ is still of a mind that these polls are on the McDonnell-heavy side. The likely voter model Survey USA has been using has yielded more Republicans than Democrats -- as has Rasmussen -- yet Rasmussen has found a tighter race. Well, slightly tighter anyway.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Oct. 2-4, 2009	+/- 4%	608 likely voters	43	54	4

Now, FHQ is not saying that this race is closer it appears; Survey USA just appears to be an outlier. Does that put McDonnell in the driver's seat? This poll certainly isn't hurting the Republican's averages here. He's topped the 50% mark for the first time since the early September Survey USA poll pushed him beyond that point. But that was quickly followed by the seemingly thesis-triggered contraction of the margin between the two major party candidates. For Deeds that September surprise may have come a month too early.

There's still might be time enough for a comeback, but as Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling tweeted today:

"Very few minds are being changed in Virginia. Deeds will need remarkable Dem turnout: http://tinyurl.com/ybs2rml"

I think that sums it up.

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Recent Posts:
Wow! Who Knew Independents and Libertarians (Among Others) Were Non-Partisan?

Rove on Pawlenty in 2012

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

Wow! Who Knew Independents and Libertarians (Among Others) Were Non-Partisan?

[Click to Enlarge]

I'm guessing that Chris Daggett won't have much of an impact on the outcome of the New Jersey gubernatorial election in Warren County on November 3. He won't if this ballot is used. Given a complaint by Libertarian gubernatorial, Ken Kaplan, that "Non-Partisan" tag will now be "Nominations by Petition." Still, Daggett is almost hidden on that ballot while the two major party candidate slates (The governors have lieutenant governor running mates for the first time ever this year.) have columns all to themselves. According to Ballot Access News, "New Jersey and New Hampshire are the only states in the nation that gives [sic] party column headings to the qualified parties, but not to the unqualified parties."

Will it have an impact in Warren County next month? Well, McCain won the county by a shade less than 7000 votes in November out of almost 49,000 cast (56%). This would seem to be Christie country. However, if Florida taught us anything during the 2000 election, it is that ballot design matters.

Hat tip to Ballot Access News for the link.


Recent Posts:
Rove on Pawlenty in 2012

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

Rove on Pawlenty in 2012

There's nothing groundbreaking here, but in a Thursday address to a gathering at St. Olaf's College in Northfield, MN, Karl Rove had a few things to say about Tim Pawlenty in the context of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

“Tim’s smart, thoughtful, thinks outside the box. He has a lot of new ideas.” But, he added, that between now and the 2012 presidential primaries, Pawlenty will have to roll up his sleeves and help other Republican candidates get elected if he wants a shot at the White House.

Well, I'd say that's why Freedom First PAC is now up and operational. But we'll have to see how effective it is at collecting and distributing money strategically to candidates around the country. Pawlenty's got some catching up to do given where Romney, Palin and Huckabee are PAC-wise.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

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Word of this poll came out prior to the first debate of the New Jersey governors race, but still, following that debate where independent candidate, Chris Daggett stole the show, this can't be good news for the Christie campaign. The Republican is increasingly coming back to the pack and a visible alternative can only serve to potentially split the anti-incumbent/anti-Corzine vote. Is Corzine in the clear, though? No, but the governor did manage to break the 40% barrier which has to be seen as partially positive. After all, if Daggett ends up with around 10% of the vote on November 3, then the race is to 45. 42% is better, but Christie is still closer at 46%

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Sept. 28-30, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	42	46	7	5

But Corzine isn't really at 42%. He is in this poll, but he has certainly been underperforming that mark in all but a few polls throughout all of 2009 and hasn't really been to that height recently. FHQ still has the incumbent Democrat in the same 38% range, but he is inching upward while Christie is sliding. If the race continues on this current trajectory, it is going to, as seems to be the case given recent polling in the Virginia race, be about turnout. And given the Democratic bent of the Garden state that's good news at Drumthwacket.

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Recent Posts:
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

The negative momentum of August seems to have carried over into September. FHQ speculated when looking over the August Twitter numbers for the prospective 2012 GOP presidential candidates that the summer congressional recess and their attendant town hall meetings had kept the candidates away from actively utilizing the service (and gathering new followers). Now granted, not all of the candidates below are members of Congress. In fact. it took adding Mike Pence to the list to even the group up to three members. [After the tied-for-third finish in last month's Value Voters Summit straw poll, we were going to include the Indiana congressman anyway.] So that doesn't seem to be what's driving this downturn.

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Other than Newt Gingrich, no one else seems to be playing the invisible primary field through Twitter (and the former Speaker may not be a prolific Twitterer for that purpose in the first place). Tim Pawlenty is giving all indications that he's laying the groundwork for a run in 2012, John Thune is taking advantage of his position as head of the Republican Policy Committee in the Senate, Rick Santorum actually set foot in Iowa, Mitt Romney's doing all he can to maintain the air of a frontrunner and Sarah Palin is being Sarah Palin. But none of them are using Twitter to build a following and drive a message; well, not in the way that Palin is using Facebook at least. No, none of them are.

...yet.

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Yes, Palin and Gingrich are the best positioned of the bunch to get a message out quickly via Twitter and that is even with Palin not tweeting since she left office in July. @SarahPalinUSA changed back to @AKGovSarahPalin and the former is now its own feed, but remains dormant for the time being. Also, Mitt Romney had another account verified through Twitter, so he's back to square one as well. The former Massachusetts governor continues to look good on paper for 2012, but that hasn't stretched to Twitter.

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Our new addition, Mike Pence, enters with a pretty good tweet per day ratio (more now than the dormant Sarah Palin). Like most however, Pence isn't getting much bang for his buck. For as much as the Indiana congressman is putting into Twitter, he's not getting many followers in return (see Follower Ratio below). Gingrich is understandable. He tweets a lot and has now cracked the one million follower barrier. However, for as much as they use Twitter (not that often), Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty have pretty good followings and resultant follower ratios (followers per tweet per day).

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Still, it was another slow month on the Twitter front for the prospective 2012 Republicans. The argument could be made that the fight is elsewhere now -- away from 2010 or 2012 and focused on health care or cap and trade. That may be true, but couldn't these folks be using Twitter to speak out on those issues? Yes, and some are.


Recent Posts:
FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/30/09)