State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/13/09)

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Another day brought another upper single digits lead for Republican Bob McDonnell in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Even though, the survey from Rasmussen preceded last night's debate in Richmond, the status quo result combined with the fact that the debate didn't shift the narrative of the race noticeably to make it seem like another typical day in the late stages of this race. And with that debate out of the way, that's one more opportunity lost for Deeds to put a positive spin on his campaign after the longstanding negative attacks on McDonnell for his past writings wore thin with likely voters in recent polls.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 12, 2009	+/- 4%	500 likely voters	43	50	6

With the opportunity lost, however, things are very much stuck in a rut in this race. McDonnell is ahead and has been better than 50% in most of the recent polls. The Republican is exactly on that mark in FHQ's averages of the race, with Deeds still struggling to break the 43% here for the first time since July. If this one's going to get close down the stretch, Deeds is going to have to happen on a magic formula and/or find some other controversial McDonnell writings (even then that latter narrative is likely dead). With the enthusiasm gap working against the Democrat in this race, as evidenced by the low projected African American turnout, it just looks as if the tried and true Virginia gubernatorial election trend will continue: Democratic president, Republican wins the governors race (or as we saw four and eight years ago, Republican president, Democrat wins the governors race).

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/13/09)

If you hold an Iowa Caucus, will the 2012 candidates come?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/12/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/13/09)

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Public Policy Polling released a new poll from New Jersey this morning and the state of the race has moved very little. In fact, because the new poll looked so similar to the last most recent poll (from Democracy Corp), nothing changed much at all with the exception of both major party candidates dropping a tenth of a percentage point. Christie's shift is a continuance of his slide in surveys of late whereas Corzine's move was more a function of his most recent poll rating (41% in the Democracy Corp poll) being slightly higher than the 39% support the incumbent Democrat received in the PPP poll.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 9-12, 2009	+/- 4.1%	571 likely voters	39	40	13	8

The real news continues to be Chris Daggett's rise in the last few weeks. His 13% showing in the PPP poll pushed the independent closer to the 10% mark in FHQ's averages of the race's competitors. But it isn't all good news for Daggett (and Corzine by association). As was brought up again today by Marc Ambinder at the Atlantic, Daggett faces the very real possibility that voters will have issues locating him on the ballot. The major party candidates get the first two rows in the gubernatorial ballot with the first slot being determined by a coin flip between the Democrats and Republicans. Everyone else, though, is crammed into a third row (see FHQ's discussion of this from last week). What will happen then? PPP found that only 44% of Daggett's supporters in this poll were committed to the independent and that Christie led by a 48-34 margin over Corzine as a second choice. If you aren't really committed to the third party guy, and you can't find him on the ballot, then what is the likelihood that you throw in the towel and mark the name of your second choice -- the guy who's not the unpopular incumbent.

Now, is that likely to happen? Possibly in a lower information, off-year election like this where the race is close. Usually the impact of something like this would be felt at the margins and wouldn't affect the outcome. But we're talking about a statistical tie in this race in the most recent polls. Yes, FHQ's averages are still a bit skeptical (owing to the fact that we have turned the other way on several Neighborhood Research polls and a handful of internet-based polls that have shown a close race as well) and lag behind. However, the margin between Christie and Corzine is definitely creeping closer.

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Recent Posts:
If you hold an Iowa Caucus, will the 2012 candidates come?

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/12/09)

Rick Davis

If you hold an Iowa Caucus, will the 2012 candidates come?

Well, the Des Moines Registered is sounding the alarm. It seems the prospective candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination aren't coming to the Hawkeye state anywhere near as many times as the prospective 2008 candidates did by this point four years ago.

Is that a fair comparison, though? 2008 was such an historic election cycle, that it would honestly be tough to top on any front. I suspect the Republicans will have raised more money by the time Iowa rolls around in early 2012 than their 2008 counterpart managed, but that may be about it. Both nominations were truly open and competitive for the first time since 1952 and interest in the race and participation skyrocketed because of it. Wouldn't it, then, be a fairer comparison to look at the 2004 Democratic candidate visits to the state instead?

How many times had Kerry and Edwards and Dean and Gephardt visited Iowa by this point in 2001? Well, through all of 2001, there were 14 Democratic visits to the state. And while that tops the handful of visits the Des Moines Register alludes to, the difference isn't really all that pronounced. The one big difference between the two cycles (early 2004 and early 2012) is that Iowa was close in 2000 and not in 2008. Furthermore, the losing 2008 party (the Republicans) is the party with that active nomination for 2012. In other words, the GOP has got some work to do to make up ground in the Hawkeye state. That said, we're not talking about a windfall of visits in either cycle.

So what's the big deal?

There isn't one. There may be a lack of prospective Republican candidates crossing the borders into Iowa, but I don't know that it has anything to do with the evangelical influence in the Iowa caucus electorate. Let's take a look at history: Iowa may not have chosen the eventual nominee every time in the post-reform era, but it has mattered every year since 1976 with the exception of 1992. And in that year Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for the Democratic nomination and was able shift the candidates' foci toward New Hampshire, skipping Iowa all the while. So far, I don't see any prominent Iowans lining up to seek the nomination.

If Iowa still plans to hold a caucus in 2012 and it remains first (and I have no evidence that it won't), then Republicans, with the media in tow, will make their way there by 2012.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/12/09)

Rick Davis

Won't Somebody Please Think About the Political 'Scientists'!?!

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/12/09)

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It's too bad Public Policy Polling conducted a poll in New Jersey over the weekend. I'm sure those results will be interesting (They are bound to find their way onto FHQ somehow.), but PPP was the last polling outfit to show the Virginia race any closer than eight points -- where the new Mason Dixon poll finds the contest between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds in the Old Dominion. It would be nice to see the before and after because most of the other polling firms weighing in since have shown a widening gap between the two major party candidates in Virginia.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Mason Dixon	Oct. 6-8, 2009	+/- 4%	625 likely voters	4o	48	12

FHQ doesn't have any problem with the 8-9 point spreads; that's around where we have the race pegged at this point. It just feels like a 52-45 or 53-44 sort of win for McDonnell at this point. [And yes, that feeling is filtered through the polling data we have at the moment. It isn't a totally subjective ruling.] And with three weeks left, Deeds has to find a way to shift the narrative in a way that will help him. Again, the thesis narrative seems to have run its course. The media has moved on. The onus, then, is on the Democrat to alter the race in some way, shape or form. That may start with tonight's debate in Richmond, but even then, Deeds will have to overcome quiet a deficit and the difficult balance between local forces and national factors that have stoked Republican enthusiasm in the state.

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Rick Davis

Won't Somebody Please Think About the Political 'Scientists'!?!

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Rick Davis

FHQ Readers:

John McCain's 2008 campaign manager, Rick Davis, is going to be on campus here at Wake on Tuesday. He's going to meet with the political science faculty and some students while he's here. I thought I'd give all our regular contributors a chance to pose a question that I can then attempt to have answered. If you have any questions about the 2008 presidential campaign, especially the approach of the McCain camp, just drop a note in the comments section below. Oh, and I'm guessing the Sarah Palin question will be asked, so you may want to go in a different direction.

Thanks,
Josh


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Won't Somebody Please Think About the Political 'Scientists'!?!

With all due respect to Helen Lovejoy, this isn't about just the children anymore.



Yes, that's right: My fellow political "scientists" and I are under attack. Well, our funding from the National Science Foundation is, at least, now that Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) has introduced an amendment to eliminate it. This quote from the senator's press secretary kills me:

"Political science would be better left to pundits and voters," said Don Tatro, Senator Coburn's press secretary, in an interview.

Indeed. I think Steven Taylor has put it best:

"I can readily accept the notion that there is a debate to be had about federal funding of research (and not just polisci work). That is perfectly legitimate. However, it would be nice if Coburn at least knew what he was talking about. ... It is flatly not the case that the University of Michigan’s work on American elections is somehow equivalent to election-night reporting and commentary. And while there are some bloggers who do attempt to engage in legitimate analysis, some of it truly empirical in nature as well, they are not the same thing as actual political science analysis."

There are some other great reactions out there as well from political scientists (see below). Look, no one wants their funding threatened (Remember the bear DNA study that was a part of the presidential campaign a year ago?) and it is natural for political scientists to want to fight this. But seriously, Senator, if you're going to make this argument, please come up with something better than, "CNN could do just as well." That's simply not true. And that's not just some ivory tower-dwelling political scientist saying that.

Andrew Gelman
Henry Farrell
Joshua Tucker
Matthew Shugart
Dan Drezner
Steven Taylor

Oh, and John Sides awarded Coburn the Cobie.


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FHQ Friday Fun: Things are More Fun in Iowa

...and that doesn't even count the presidential nomination races kicking off there every fourth year.

I can't believe I managed to hold on to this until Friday. Good stuff from Iowa:



Hat tip to Jonathan Martin for the link.


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Senate Bill 1390 is now out of conference and has been passed by the House according to Ballot Access News. As FHQ discussed yesterday, this is the bill that requires all absentee ballots be printed and mailed off to military personnel overseas at least 45 days prior to the general election. This has the unintended effect of forcing states that hold midterm primaries in September to shift those elections to earlier dates. [Here is the complete list of states affected and a broader discussion of the implications.]

Below is a timeline of action taken yesterday in the House on the bill from the clerk of the House. They were treating the differences in the Senate bill coming out of conference as changes to the original House bill (HR 2647).

11:15 A.M. -

Amendment offered by Ms. Slaughter.

Upon the adoption of the conference report the House shall be considered to have adopted the concurrent resolution ( H. Con. Res. 196) making corrections in the enrollment of the bill H.R. 2647.

11:46 A.M. -

On agreeing to the Slaughter amendment Agreed to by voice vote.

On ordering the previous question on the amendment Agreed to by the Yeas and Nays: 237 - 187 (Roll no. 764).

11:53 A.M. -

UNFINISHED BUSINESS - The Chair announced that the unfinished business was the question of adoption of motions to suspend the rules which had been debated earlier and on which further proceedings had been postponed.

H. Res. 808:

providing for consideration of the conference report to accompany the bill ( H.R. 2647) to authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2010 for military activities of the Department of Defense, for military construction, and for defense activities of the Department of Energy, to prescribe military personnel strengths for such fiscal year, to provide special pays and allowances to certain members of the Armed Forces, expand concurrent receipt of military retirement and VA disability benefits to disabled military retirees, and for other purposes

On agreeing to the resolution Agreed to by recorded vote: 234 - 188 (Roll no. 765).

Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.

12:19 P.M. -

DEBATE - The House proceeded with one hour of debate on the conference report to accompany H.R. 2647.

1:30 P.M. -

POSTPONED PROCEEDING - Pursuant to the rule, the House postponed further proceedings on the conference report to accompany H.R. 2647 until later in the legislative day.

H.R. 2647:

to authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2010 for military activities of the Department of Defense, to prescribe military personnel strengths for fiscal year 2010, and for other purposes

The previous question was ordered pursuant to the rule.

3:23 P.M. -

On agreeing to the conference report Agreed to by recorded vote: 281 - 146 (Roll no. 770).

Motions to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.

3:24 P.M. -

Considered as unfinished business.

H. Con. Res. 196:

making corrections in the enrollment of the bill H.R. 2647

Pursuant to the provisions of H. Res. 808, H. Con. Res. 196 is considered passed House.

H.R. 2647:

to authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2010 for military activities of the Department of Defense, to prescribe military personnel strengths for fiscal year 2010, and for other purposes

Yeah, that's a lot of legislative process to take in. The key is the enrollment part. That tells us that the bill has passed and the "unfinished business" is basically that the enrollment of the bill has to take place first before the bill is presented to the president.


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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/8/09)

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September surprises.

No, they just don't seem to work, at least not from the Deeds campaign's perspective. Bob McDonnell's thesis seemed to have made a dent in the summer margin between the Republican and his Democratic opponent during the latter half of September, but first Rasmussen and now the Washington Post have shown McDonnell stretching what was a shrinking lead a month ago back to around the ten point mark. [We'll set Survey USA to the side for the moment as the firm has consistently shown a much broader McDonnell advantage without terribly much fluctuation. FHQ isn't attacking the methodology just the fact that, unlike the two polls cited above, there really has not been that much change to speak of in the series of Survey USA polls out in this race since the June primary.]

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Washington Post	Oct. 4-7, 2009	+/- 3%	1001 likely voters	44	53	2

So while things may be looking down for Republicans further north in New Jersey, they have trended upward in the Old Dominion. Now mind you, Deeds has been creeping up in FHQ's averages through the last four polls, but that quartet of surveys has also seen McDonnell crest above the 50% barrier and pushed the Republican above that point here at FHQ. Deeds is currently at his highest point in our averages since early July, but he is being outpaced by his opponent at this point and McDonnell is in the drivers seat with just 26 days left until November 3.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/8/09)

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I don't know that there is much to say here. The race for governor in New Jersey is very simply getting tighter. Jon Corzine found himself again on top of the race in a poll for the second time this week, doubling his total of polls led from (way) earlier in the year. Now, that isn't to say that Chris Christie has lost the advantage -- he hasn't here at FHQ or elsewhere -- but the momentum is squarely against the Republican at the moment. And the sudden jump of independent Chris Daggett in the polls (especially this week into the mid-teens) seems to be drawing directly from the former US attorney. All three candidates are breaking new ground. Daggett is threatening to break the 10% mark, Corzine is inching toward 40% and Christie is now about to fall under 45% for the first time since FHQ began tabulating the averages of this race in mid-June.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Democracy Corps [pdf]	Oct. 6-7, 2009	+/- 4%	614 likely voters	41	38	14	7
Survey USA	Oct. 5-7, 2009	+/- 4%	639 likely voters	40	43	14	2

What brought us to this point today? Well, two new polls -- from Survey USA and Democracy Corps -- each showed one of the candidates up by three points. In other words, today's polls were statistical ties. Averaging across the two (without weighting), Christie and Corzine were knotted at 40.5% with Daggett laying claim to the support of 14% of the survey respondents.

With a tie basically prevailing here, every big event (and even some seemingly small ones unforeseen on the horizon) is magnified. As much as the debates may seem like non-starters nationally, they may matter from the perspective that they offer a chance for either major party campaign to shift the narrative coming out of the event and moving forward.

Again, Christie is ahead, but with just under four weeks left to go this one continues to get more and more interesting.

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