The 2012 Frontloading Problem: What's Our Incentive?

Yesterday I spoke with someone from Gannett about both parties' current attempts to devise rules systems governing the 2012 presidential nomination process. We discussed a lot in our five minute conversation, but the thing that struck me was his question on the likelihood of more rogue states in 2012. FHQ's standard answer is that as long as both parties are on the same page on the issue of timing, then most states will fall in line.

However, I think that there is some need for a caveat. The big what if in the back of the minds of those within the national parties is whether states will actually go along with that. What if they don't? What's is the incentive for those 19 pre-March states to move back to comply with the likely rules for 2012? In most cases, in the opinion of this site, states will just comply. It just won't be an issue. Yet, for other states there may be no incentive to move back. Additionally, that latter group of states may not flinch at the enforcement mechanism put in place by either or both parties. And therein lies the question that came out at the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting last week: What is that enforcement mechanism? I don't know about the Republican Party, but I got the sense that no one in the room last week knew what that was or more importantly what it should be.

As I said, I don't think it will be a problem in a majority of the 19 cases.* Most states will fall in line and the system will revert to its earlier nothing-before-the-first-Tuesday-in-March form. There are, in FHQ's estimation, a small handful of states that could dare the national parties to do something -- anything -- to sanction them by sticking to their 2008 calendar positions. And I don't think the parties would have much recourse but to let them.

Yes, but where is that line of demarcation? Which states would be better able to call the national parties' bluff if they really wanted to?

Allow us to enlist the help of our Electoral College Spectrum [This version of the spectrum is based on the final results in the 2008 election.]. The idea of the spectrum is simple: It rank orders the states from the most lopsided Democratic state (Hawaii in the top left corner) to the most lopsided Republican state (Wyoming in the bottom right corner). The two extreme columns aren't that helpful to us. Those are the most reliably Democratic and Republican states. But as we move inward the states get more competitive. And the more competitive a state gets, the more leverage it would have on the national parties in terms of primary timing.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (262/279)	GA-15 (159)	NE-4 (58)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	IA-7 (269/274)	SD-3 (144)	KY-8 (54)
RI-4 (14)	MI-17 (185)	CO-9*** (278/269)	ND-3 (141)	LA-9 (46)
MA-12 (26)	OR-7 (192)	VA-13 (291/260)	AZ-10 (138)	AR-6 (37)
NY-31 (57)	NJ-15 (207)	OH-20 (311/247)	SC-8 (128)	AL-9 (31)
DE-3 (60)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (338/227)	TX-34 (120)	AK-3 (22)
IL-21 (81)	WI-10 (222)	IN-11 (349/200)	WV-5 (86)	ID-4 (19)
MD-10 (91)	NV-5 (227)	NC-15+1**** (365/189)	MS-6 (81)	UT-5 (15)
CA-55 (146)	PA-21 (248)	MO-11 (173)	TN-11 (75)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (153)	MN-10 (258)	MT-3 (162)	KS-6 (64)	WY-3 (3)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 269 electoral votes. McCain's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. ****Nebraska allocates electoral votes based on statewide results and the results within each of its congressional districts. Nebraska's 2nd district voted for Barack Obama on November 4.

Let me parse this out.

Say you're a state legislator or the governor in Florida. Your primary is already scheduled for the last Tuesday in January. You have a pretty good idea that you'll be a competitive state in the general election. You also know that losing half your delegates is a meaningless threat from the parties. It is the influence over the identity of the nominee that counts. That's all the Republicans did in 2008. The Democrats initially had that same sanction, but added a candidate-focused penalty as well. Candidates who campaigned in rogue states would not have any delegates they won in that state's contest seated at the Democratic convention. [Of course, it didn't play out that way for the Democrats in 2008.]

Given that information and the 2008 experience (Think Indiana and North Carolina from the primaries to the general election for the Democrats.), what would you do? Personally, I'd balk at the parties. If you are a state that is already scheduled early (earlier than the proposed party-designated March starting point), why not roll the dice? The parties would be stuck. Why would they pass up a golden opportunity for some early grassroots party-building for the general election in a state that will ultimately prove consequential to either side's electoral college calculus? They wouldn't; not in the way the Democrats did with Florida and Michigan in 2008. If all either party is doing is stripping a rogue state of half their delegates, then it could be open season for movement, as it isn't likely to deter states from either staying early or moving to earlier dates. But if they are trying to keep the candidates out of the state -- like the Democrats did in 2008 -- then the move is potentially counterproductive down the road in the general election.

The parties could come down hard on states that would go their way in November regardless. They could keep those states in line with little or no threat of it coming back to haunt the party and their candidate in November. I could also foresee the national parties being able to strong arm state parties making the decisions on caucuses to comply (That extra filter of the state government doesn't exist in those states.). But in competitive general election states? The parties would have to be blinded by the need to sanction rule-breakers in the short term to hamstring themselves long term in the general election in an electorally consequential state.

So, if you're Florida or Virginia or Arizona or Missouri or Michigan and you are already scheduled in the pre-window period, why not hold your spot and see what the parties will do to you? [Of course, I don't see the Republicans attempting that kind of sanction. Then again, I didn't see the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee proposing to require early states to allocate delegates proportionally versus having the freedom to determine the mode of allocation either.] In a nutshell, there isn't a whole lot the national parties could (or would) do in that case. It would hurt them in the general election.

* I should note that there is a sequence to all of this. If one of these states telegraphs that it is going to stay in place, thus violating the proposed rules the two parties have out there at the moment, it could open up the floodgates. A handful of states with some leverage could become a full scale 19 -- or more -- state problem.

Thoughts on the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting

As FHQ alluded to on Friday, we sat in on the festivities at the Democratic Party's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting on both Friday and Saturday. The intent of the meeting was to begin reconciling the recommendations of the Democratic Change Commission with the political and structural realities on the ground with regard to the rules governing the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination.

[For a blow-by-blow account of the two day rule-a-thon, you can follow our real-time Twittering at @FHQ.]

As some have already said, this was a jump off the deep end into the minutiae of delegate selection rules. However, the committee members revved up for the discussions surrounding the three areas the Change Commission was tasked with re-examining: primary and caucus timing, superdelegate reduction/elimination and caucus rule uniformity. The most animated portions of the proceedings came at the tail end of Friday's session and at the beginning of Saturday's. Of the 21 rules -- based on the 2008 delegate selection rules -- Rules 9 (superdelegates) and 11 (timing) seemed to elicit the most concern; the departure from the '08 rules the Change Commission's recommendations represented did, at least. The decisions on both rules were tabled at this meeting pending further discussion at the July 9 and 10 meeting in Washington that will finalize a set of rules for the full DNC to vote on in August.

But let's look at some of the discussion around these two issues from Friday and Saturday:

Superdelegates

Well, if the Change Commission's recommendation is approved, they won't be superdelegates anymore. They'll be NPLEOs (National Pledged Party Leader and Elected Official). That's right. The recommendation calls for the elimination of add-on delegates and a change to the superdelegates as we knew them in 2008. Under these rules, the party and elected officials would lose their independence in 2012. They would be proportionally pledged to candidates based on the results in the primaries or caucuses in their states.

As you might imagine, this didn't sit particularly well with a group of folks (the RBC) who happen to be superdelegates. No one seemed to like the loss of independence (read: influence). That loss prompted RBC member, Mame Reiley, to ask if leaders shouldn't be able to lead instead of follow. She cited Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama ahead of the Massachusetts primary (and Hillary Clinton's win there) as an example. In other words, how could you tell an elite within the party to support someone they don't want to support (with the only alternative being to become a non-voting delegate)? To FHQ's mind this isn't any different from the average delegate moving over to the actual nominee at the convention despite that earlier pledge. It happens routinely. Still, the members of the RBC took issue with the proportionality calculus and how that would play out in reality. Some made the argument that it was the job of the RBC to plan for the worst case scenario, a floor fight over the nomination. But while that may be true, it isn't likely to be the reality in 2012. As RBC member, Ray Buckley said, "I'm ambivalent about this...because I don't think the president will be challenged in 2012."

There were some alternate proposals bandied about. The one that seemed to resonate was one that had alternate delegates becoming actual delegates as a means of diluting the influence of the superdelegates. This seemed like a clever enough idea, but obviously needs to be fleshed out some. That represents quite an expansion of the number of delegates which has implications for floor seating because there would still have to be alternates who also get a spot on the floor even if they are not voting.

I don't see that proposal making it nor do I necessarily see the Change Commission's proposal getting through the full DNC. One thing we can likely count on is the elimination of the add-on delegates. Beyond that, there may not be a whole lot of movement on the superdelegates issue. With Obama running unchallenged in 2012 (more than likely), that group will return to its spot in the background of the process.

[Before I shift gears to the timing issue, there's one other point I'd like to raise about superdelegates and conventions. It was interesting to me from my basement position in the ivory tower to see how these matters were viewed by some of the elites within the party. Academics tend to take a macro view of conventions. They matter in that they move the needle in the polls in their immediate aftermath. But as Seth Masket pointed out last week when the GOP tapped Tampa to be its 2012 convention site, the link between conventions location and electoral results is tenuous at best. The same holds for conventions overall. But members of the parties involved in the process don't necessarily share the same view. Instead of a macro view, they adopt a micro view. To the elites, winning in November matters, but things like convention seating and hotel arrangements matter. One of the DNC staffers was joking with me before the Saturday session about the Michigan delegates having to stay in Boulder during the 2008 convention in Denver. Rick Stafford, and RBC member from Minnesota, said the Democrats from the Land of 10,000 Lakes suffered a similar fate for holding a pre-window caucus in 1988; staying "somewhere in Georgia." These folks will protect that turf unless compelled to do otherwise. The bottom line is that these sorts of things matter to folks within the RBC and that obviously has the potential to impact the rules that emerge from this process.]

Timing

This issue was why FHQ went to Washington for this meeting in the first place. Presidential primary and caucus scheduling (or movement from cycle to cycle) is our bread and butter. And while Tom Schaller is right that not much substance came out of this meeting, the group will have a large discussion in July that will have found its roots in the groundwork laid on Friday and Saturday.

First, the Change Commission has called for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to retain their privileged positions in the pre-window period of the primary calendar from 2008. The Democrats got a major assist on making that recommendation a reality from the Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee last week. The TDSC followed the Change Commission's lead in not only keeping those four states early but in knocking back the start date of the process from January to February and preventing all other states from going before a the first Tuesday in March (A return to -- at least for the Democrats -- something akin to the 2000 primary calendar.). That's a big deal and it certainly helps both parties on the enforcement front somewhat. If both parties have the same timing rules, it makes it far less likely that a Republican-controlled state government, for example, will opt to flaunt Democratic Party rules to maintain or move to an earlier, pre-window date on the calendar (This assumes a scenario where the Democrats adopt the Change Commission recommendations on timing, but the Republicans are more open to allowing earlier contests.). Enforcement of the delegate selection rules is more difficult when the parties aren't on the same page. However, just because it appears that the parties will, I won't call it coordinate, but correspond with each other on timing, doesn't necessarily mean there won't be any rogue states like Florida and Michigan in 2012. Enforcement of the timing strictures was one of the sticking points with members of the RBC during this discussion. In the end, it really wasn't dealt with, but pushed to the July meeting instead. There are enticements (bonus delegates) for going later, but will that get the 19 states currently scheduled (according to state law) in February to move their primaries in accordance with the possible rules changes? That is the question at this point. Nothing has worked thus far on that front as a means of curbing frontloading, but both parties will have to hope that all works out for the best when and if both produce similar calendars for 2012.

There was also a varied discussion over the Change Commission's recommendation for encouraging more regionally or subregionally clustered primaries. More questions than answers emerged from this particular topic. What constituted a cluster? Are big states like California and New York large enough on their own to constitute clusters? How do you get states to cluster? What enticements can be used? How do you go about scheduling which cluster goes first? Getting states to cluster is the conundrum. It seems that Democratic-controlled states would be better able to cluster states controlled by the Republicans or with some form or fashion of divided government. [Truth be told, that is one of the major findings of my dissertation on frontloading decisions over time. But who am I to toot my own horn?] Some states are better able to move and the creation of clusters also seems as if it might be fraught with the same sort of Iowa/New Hampshire privileged position issue. [Hello unintended consequences.] I don't know that there is any way of getting to this point other than to allow states to come to clustering conclusions organically. [Think Potomac Primary or the Great Lakes or Yankee Primaries in 1996.]

One final thing that received quite a lot of discussion was the idea of opening the pre-window period to a bidding process for those four slots. A similar proposal system was used by the Levin Commission in 2006 before it added Nevada and South Carolina to the Democratic pre-window period for 2008. But RBC member, Michael Steed, proposed opening all four slots (including Iowa's and New Hampshire's) up for 2012. This received some support in the room, but was shot down by RBC member, Jeff Berman, who said it was too late in the process for that (especially if a set of rules was going to be in place for the full DNC to consider and vote on in August). The proposal process was already well underway at this point in the cycle before 2008. Another talking point concerned just adding an additional slot or two in the pre-window period. This, too, was denied, but an amendment was added to the rule that this be considered for 2016. That was passed while the rest of the timing issue was tabled for the July meeting.

At this point, the calendar will is very likely to be adopted by the full DNC, but the questions of clustering and enforcement still remain in shadowy territory. There are no clear answers for either.

Parting Shots

The theme of this meeting was the balance between crafting a set of delegate selection rules that rectifies some of the issues raised by the Democrats' 2008 primary race and reelecting the president. To some members of the RBC those two were countervailing forces. The "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" argument that RBC member Alice Germond made is a tough one to counter. Indeed. Why mess with a formula that worked? Upon further reflection, FHQ is not terribly sympathetic to that line of thought. Now, we don't have a dog in this fight. Reform or not, this site will have an eye to the 2012 rules regardless. However, this argument seems like a veiled attempt to maintain the status quo. After all, how much of the election results in November 2008 were attributable to what happened in the winter and early spring? A Democrat would have won in November regardless, whether it was Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or John Edwards. [Well, Edwards would have been in some hot water in August 2008 with the Rielle Hunter ordeal if he was the presumptive nominee at that point.] At the margins, the competitive races in Indiana and North Carolina may have helped lay the groundwork for Obama and the Democrats successfully turning those long-standing red states blue. But those 26 electoral votes would not have been decisive. They were luxuries that a severely toxic 2008 Republican brand afforded the Obama campaign and the Democrats trying to elect the president.

That said, here are a few things to note. The status quo with some minor changes is probably what both the Democrats and Republicans will produce for this upcoming cycle. There were some problems with the rules in 2008, but that was mostly a function of a close Democratic race. In the post-reform era, that has been more an anomaly rather than commonplace. The best argument for the status quo is not that it worked in 2008 or any other year, but rather that wholesale changes to the system could lead to unintended consequences. For example, no one in the Democratic Party in 1984 could have imagined the potential impact superdelegates -- new in 1984 -- would/could have had in the 2008 process. [This was a point that was raised by someone on the RBC at the meeting this weekend.]

Now, some of the points outlined above regarding the status quo may be moot. It may not matter and here's why: The head of the Democratic Party may want to make the Democratic Change Commission's recommendations a reality. Changes to the rules are not likely to affect the president's chances at renomination. The likelihood of him being challenged for the Democratic Party nod is as close to nil as it gets at the moment. So, why not push these recommendations through? The DNC probably won't balk at the president if this is what he wants. But is that what the president wants? That's the $64 question; the one that is likely to determine the extent to which the Rules and Bylaws Committee goes along with the Change Commission's recommendations.

But we'll have to wait until the July meeting for that answer.

[For more, please go over to DemRulz and read Frank Leone's write up of the events from the weekend as well. He offers a different perspective; both legal and from within the DNC.]

FHQ at the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting (2012 Nomination Rules)

FHQ is on site at the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting to discuss the Democratic Change Commission's 2012 presidential nomination rules recommendations. I'll have some longer updates later, but for now, you can follow in real-time with updates via Twitter.

You can follow us here: http://twitter.com/FHQ

*Also note that our Twitter feed is also in the right sidebar. [But I don't know how quickly that will update.]

It's too bad Kentucky's primary is so late

From GOP12:

A new Magellan Strategies survey (pdf) has Sarah Palin leading her prospective 2012 rivals in Kentucky.

1. Sarah Palin 28%

2. Mike Huckabee 24%

3. Mitt Romney 16%

4. Newt Gingrich 12%

5. Ron Paul 4%

6. Tim Pawlenty 2%

If Sarah Palin wins Kentucky in 2012, she'll already be the Republican nominee. But that's all FHQ is willing to say. As of now Kentucky is scheduled to hold a May 22 presidential primary in 2012.

Gallup on 2012: Obama in a Deadlock with Generic Republican

Oh, and there was an open-ended GOP primary question too. [Here's the Gallup release.]

2012 General Election

Obama: 44%

Republican: 42%

Other: 3%

Not Sure: 11%

Sample: 1025 adults (nationwide)

Margin of Error: +/- 4%

Conducted: Feb 1-3, 2010

Notes: Obama garners nearly 90% support from Democrats and the Republican gets 86% from Republicans in the survey. Among independents, though, the GOP holds a 45%-31% advantage over the president.

2012 GOP Primary Race

Romney: 14%

Palin: 11%

McCain: 7%

(Scott) Brown: 4%

Huckabee: 3%

Gingrich: 3%

Paul: 2%

Pawlenty: 1%

(Bob) McDonnell: 1%

Fred Thompson: 1%

Jindal: 1%

Other: 10%

None/No Opinion: 42%

Sample: 495 Republicans or Republican-leaning independents (nationwide)

Margin of Error: +/-5%

Conducted: Feb 1-3, 2010

Notes: That's a lot of survey respondents who have no opinion or chose no one. Despite that lack of a clear "face of the party," the generic GOP candidate still fares rather well against the president. Yes, generics usually do pretty well, but still, it isn't a bad place to be if you happen to be on the right.

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Palin for President

Well, I think it is safe to say that Sarah Palin's drop-in on the Tea Party convention in Nashville has accomplished one thing: everyone is talking about her running for president again. Some folks never stopped, but the chatter has hit a new stride post-Tea Party.

Marc Ambinder sees a Palin paradigm shift.

...and Nate Silver is already looking ahead to the 2012 primaries (I don't like the calendar he's using there. For FHQ, it is too hypothetical. We would take a more conservative approach and use a more traditional calendar -- until there's actual proof of a calendar like that having been signed off on by either of the two major parties.)

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PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Jan. '10): Obama Trails (Huckabee) for the First Time

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released their monthly look at the 2012 presidential playing field. Here's a quick look a the toplines (I'll be back later with a full analysis and updated figures.):

Huckabee: 45%
Obama: 44%

Undecided: 11%

Obama: 49%
Palin: 41%
Undecided: 9%

Obama: 44%
Petraeus: 34%
Undecided: 21%

Obama: 44%
Romney: 42%
Undecided: 15%


Margin of Error: +/- 2.8%
Sample: 1151 registered voters (nationwide)
Conducted: January 18-19, 2010

NOTES:

1) The president is under 50% against all four prospective GOP presidential aspirants in this month's poll for the first time since PPP started these examinations last March. How is January going for the president again?

2) The sample voted for McCain in 2008 at the same rate as the actual results (46%), but Obama has dropped off in this sample versus the actual vote total in November 2008 (53% to 47%). Yes, the sample still favors the Obama slightly, but that makes for a much more competitive balance between the president and his Republican counterparts.

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FHQ obviously has not weighed in on this race since the primary set the stage early last month. Here we are, though, on yet another election day. The dynamics in this one have been interesting. In political science we operate under the assumption that there will be some tightening in the polls in any race as election day nears. However, in blue Massachusetts, with Ted Kennedy's seat on the line, the fact that Scott Brown has pulled even and even surpassed Martha Coakley in some polls exceeds even those expectations.

The polls are open (and close tonight at 8pm Eastern) and Bay staters are voting. What are your thoughts on how this race has progressed and who do you think will pull this thing out tonight (...or in the near future if we have to wait!?!)?

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Final Democratic Change Commission Meeting

Frank Leone from DemRulz sends this along concerning the final meeting of the Democratic Change Commission today:

The DNC Change Commission held its final (hour-long) meeting this afternoon (by conference call). The Commission approved a draft report that recommends converting most automatic unpledged “superdelegates” to pledged delegates who will fill slots reflecting the voter preferences in their state’s primary or caucuses – thus becoming automatic, pledged, voting convention delegates. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Commission (RBC) will consider the Commission’s report and then forward proposed delegate selection rules to the DNC for action later in 2010.

Frank has more on superdelegates, but FHQ will focus on the primary timing aspect of the proceedings today.

Calendar: Under the Commission’s proposal numerous states (including Virginia) will have to move their primaries back to after March 1. It will be easier to achieve date changes in 2012 if the RNC agrees to have a similar starting date. Nevertheless, some states will be in a situation where there is a state mandated primary date which does not comply with the DNC’s schedule. The RBC will reexamine the delegate selection rules which provide for sanctions and exceptions.

No, there's nothing new there and FHQ has certainly documented the potential pitfalls in this March 1 plan if the Republican Party does not follow suit with a similar calendar.

I'll have more when Frank gets the full recommendations up.


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Merry Christmas from FHQ

To all our readers, commenters and contributors, FHQ wants to wish you all the merriest of Christmases and the happiest of new years. This site is nothing without you. Thank you.


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