2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Jan. 17-23)

Compared to the previous week, this last week was slow on the presidential primary movement front. That said, what do we now know?

• The only new bill to move (or cancel) a presidential primary this past week was a House companion bill to the Washington Senate bill that was proposed a week ago. At a public hearing for the Senate bill, state Republican Party chair, Luke Esser, spoke against the plan, one endorsed by Democratic governor, Christine Gregoire, and Republican secretary of state, Sam Reed.
• The real news was the roller coaster in Arizona. First, there was talk of the Arizona Republican Party possibly opting to "move" their primary to February. Of course, it is already scheduled for the fourth Tuesday in February. Then it was revealed that the resolution the party was to vote on at their meeting this weekend would only ask Governor Jan Brewer to use her proclamation power to move the primary. And then, to top it all off, what was originally reported to have been a possible unanimous vote in favor of the resolution (Resolution #12) turned into the measure failing to pass at all on Saturday. The state still has a February primary, so either the legislature will have to act or Brewer will have to use her privilege to shift the presidential primary to a later date.As has been mentioned in this space several times, there are currently 18 states with presidential primaries scheduled for February 2012. That would put those 18 states in violation of both parties' delegate selection rules for 2012.
• As has been mentioned in this space several times, there are currently 18 states with presidential primaries scheduled for February 2012. That would put those 18 states in violation of both parties' delegate selection rules for 2012.
• Of those 18 primary states, 13 of them (California, Connecticut, Missouri, New York, Arizona, Georgia, Delaware, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey and Virginia) have convened their 2011 state legislative sessions.
• Of those 13 states, 3 (California, New Jersey and Virginia) have bills that have been introduced and are active within the state legislature to move their contests' dates. Both California and New Jersey have bills that would eliminate an early and separate presidential primaries and position those events with the other primaries for state and local offices. That would mean June presidential primaries for both states if those bills pass and are signed into law.
• One additional early state from the 2008 cycle, Washington, has proposed temporarily (for the 2012 cycle) canceling the state's presidential primary. That primary is currently scheduled for the fourth Tuesday in May according to the law. However, that same law allows the secretary of state to propose a different date and the state parties can propose their own alternative. If either or both propose(s) a different date a bipartisan committee (made up of party members and state government officials), by a two-thirds vote, has to approve the change.
• Utah (one of the aforementioned 18 states) convenes its legislative session this week. Oklahoma (February), Alabama (March), Florida (March) and Louisiana (April) get down to work later in the year.
• For this next week, then, the 14 early states in conflict with the national parties' rules will be the ones to watch. That includes the 13 mentioned above and Utah.
  

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Romney Takes New Hampshire GOP Straw Poll

Former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, won Saturday's straw poll of New Hampshire Republicans by a more than three to one margin over his next closest competitor, Texas representative, Ron Paul. In a crowded field of candidates, Romney emerged with 35% of the vote (273 total votes cast of the 493 members in attendance -- 55% turnout) and won despite Tea Party-aligned state party chair candidate, Jack Kimball, winning that race. In other words, even with some Tea Party atmosphere to the proceedings, Romney -- not necessarily a favorite of the movement that grew from the grassroots up following President Obama's victory in the 2008 election -- won and did so by a margin that largely reflects what polls of the early primary state have shown.

Mitt Romney: 35%

Ron Paul: 11%

Tim Pawlenty: 8%

Sarah Palin: 7%

Michelle Bachmann: 5%

Jim DeMint: 5%

Herman Cain: 4%

Chris Christie: 3%

Rick Santorum: 3%

Mitch Daniels: 3%

Newt Gingrich: 3%

Mike Huckabee: 3%

Mike Pence: 3%

Rudy Giuliani: 2%

Judd Gregg: 2%

Gary Johnson: 2%

Other: 2%

Donald Trump: 1%

Haley Barbour: 1%

Jon Huntsman: ~1% 0*

John Thune: ~1% 0*

There isn't much to read into this other than the Romney-Tea Party angle discussed above. The fact that 220 members opted to sit on the sidelines is noteworthy, but may only indicate that it is still a little too early.

*I just got a nice email from James Pindell, the political director from WMUR, the station which held the straw poll vote. Jon Huntsman and John Thune not only got less than 1% of the straw poll vote, they each got 0 votes. That correction has been made in the results above.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Lazy and Non-binding Saturday in Arizona and New Hampshire

2012 is on the agenda at two Republican state party meetings today. Both Arizona and New Hampshire are set to elect new state party chairpersons and both state parties are acting with an eye toward 2012.

Arizona:

Obviously, FHQ has already spent some space in the last day or so discussing what has turned out to be a non-binding resolution by Republicans in the Grand Canyon state. The resolution would call on Republican governor, Jan Brewer, to use her proclamation power to schedule an early presidential primary for 2012. Former governor, Janet Napolitano, used the same executive power in both 2004 and 2008 to move the state's primary to the earliest date allowed by the two parties (the first Tuesday in February). But Arizona Republicans are asking a bit more of their governor this time around (assuming the resolution passes and that seems likely). If followed, Arizona's delegation to the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa would be halved.

Brewer would be smart just to leave well enough alone and try to blame the state legislature for inaction. The state's presidential primary is already set -- according to state election law -- for the fourth Tuesday in February. Blame the lack of movement on a do-nothing legislature. The only question that would come out of this is whether the governor has the power to move the primary date back. The law granting the governor the power to move the primary date does not specify, though it implies, that the objective is to move the primary to an earlier and more advantageous date rather than a later and compliant date.

The only thing that will come out of today's vote in Phoenix is that there is some desire among Arizona Republicans to have a meaningful primary election regardless of RNC rules.

New Hampshire:

In the Granite state today, the state Republican Party is meeting in Derry to select a new chairperson, but is also holding a straw poll of the approximately 500 state party members in attendance. FHQ quipped the other day that this wasn't going to tell us much because it won't come close to approximating what will happen in the actual primary; one that is open to independents who obviously won't be at the Republican meeting today.

But here's the thing: It isn't an altogether meaningless exercise. First of all, that battle for Republican chair is one that pits an establishment candidate, Juliana Bergeron, against a Tea Party-backed choice, Jack Kimball. Who comes out on top there speaks to the direction of the state party. Secondly, with polls of the state consistently showing Mitt Romney as the leading choice among primary voters in the nation's first primary state, the odds-setting concerns how well the former Massachusetts governor will do in the straw poll.

Those two things don't necessarily jibe all that well. Romney is not a favorite of the Tea Party (and vice versa), and if they flex their muscle in the vote for New Hampshire state party chair, that doesn't necessarily bode well for his chances of a strong showing in the straw poll. Let's state that a bit differently. If Kimball wins the chair race, Romney is very likely to come in under the level of support he has had in polls of the state in the straw poll.

That's what should be looked at coming out of today anyway.

...with a mind toward the fact that independents aren't participating and will be in next year's primary.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Much Ado About Nothing in Arizona Tomorrow

At least we're starting to get a clearer picture of what's actually happening within the Arizona Republican Party now. The resolution that is set to be voted on at the party's state meeting in Phoenix tomorrow is nothing more than a call for Republican governor, Jan Brewer, to use the proclamation power the state legislature granted the governor in the 1990s to position the Grand Canyon state's presidential primary in a more advantageous (read earlier and more influential) place on the calendar relative to other states.

In other words, this resolution, if passed, is in no way binding on the frontloading/primary movement calculus in Arizona for 2012. Here's a suggestion: do nothing. The primary is already scheduled in February (on the fourth Tuesday of the month). My gut tells me that some earlier February 2008 states will actually comply with the national parties' rules and cluster on the first Tuesday in March. That leaves a calendar similar to what existed in 2004: the exempt states followed by a handful of early February states, a relative lull with a contest or two on the remaining weeks of February and then a modified but less compressed Super Tuesday during the first week in March.

That lull period would be where Arizona would be positioned if the state government did absolutely nothing. Considering those earlier states would be states that would not only lose half their delegates -- given RNC rules -- but also be subjected to proportional allocation of delegates, it is close to a sure thing that the nomination would not be wrapped up, officially or not, before that point. Arizona could have an impact by doing nothing at all.

Spare us the non-binding resolution.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

More on the Arizona GOP's Potential "Move" This Weekend

Late last night it was reported that the Arizona Republican Party is set to approve a resolution at its meeting in Phoenix this weekend to keep its 2012 presidential primary in February. As we mentioned, though, this is interesting considering it would only take doing nothing in the state legislature to accomplish this. State election law in Arizona already accounts for a primary on the fourth Tuesday in February. The governor, furthermore, can use her proclamation power to move the primary even further up on the calendar to a more competitive date. And since Jan Brewer is still a Republican, this would not seem like too much of a roadblock. [CNN at least reports that Brewer has the final say, but that seems to render meaningless the potential move by the Arizona GOP this weekend.]

Why go the state party resolution route then?

That is the main question and it still not entirely clear to me, but it could have some significant implications at least for Democrats in Arizona if it comes to pass.

If the Arizona Republican Party passes this resolution this weekend, it likely means there will be no action from the legislature on changing the election laws regarding primary timing or who can participate. That lack of action on primary timing means that Democrats will be stuck with the February primary date which would be in violation of the DNC's rules on delegate selection. The alternative for Arizona Democrats is to foot the bill for a caucus (most likely) that will be scheduled at a time that fits the Democratic Party's rules (some time on or after the first Tuesday in March).

Needless to say, this potential move has far-reaching implications not only for the shape the overall primary calendar will have, but for the Democrats in Arizona as well.

CORRECTION: In an earlier version of this post I made mention of Erin McPike's post last night that highlighted an attendant resolution that will also be voted on at the Arizona Republicans' meeting tomorrow. Though it wasn't clear in her piece, I said that the other resolution would close the 2012 presidential primary to all but registered Republicans. This second resolution is all the more curious in that circumstance because the presidential primaries are already closed to all but those registered with a party. Thanks to Richard Winger from Ballot Access News for the clarification. The intent of the subsequent resolution is to impact the primaries for offices other than the presidency. It is a completely separate issue as a result.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

It only takes one state to unravel the process: Arizona GOP Mulls Violating RNC Rules

Erin McPike at RealClearPolitics:

The Arizona Republican Party is preparing to pass a resolution Saturday that would bump its primary date to February, when traditional early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and now, Nevada, will hold their nominating contests. The move could touch off a scramble for the early states to go even earlier.

This is an interesting move considering that Arizona law already positions the Grand Canyon state's presidential primary in the month of February and gives the governor (Jan Brewer - R) the option of issuing a proclamation to move the primary up even further to place the state's voters in a position to have an influence if the late February date is not early enough.

To me, this seems superfluous, but what do I know? It should be noted that Arizona Republicans have a history of this. The party held an early 1988 caucus in August of 1986. And apparently Arizona Republicans are willing to take the 50% delegation penalty to have some influence in 2012 as well.

Your move Florida Republicans. Oh, and Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina might want to be ready, too.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Tim Pawlenty: Book Sales, Low; Google Searches, Up ...Briefly

But hey, Chris Christie is surprisingly and consistently heavily searched (compared to some of the other top tier Republicans*). Maybe there is something (else) to being asked on a regular basis whether you're running for president.

Former Minnesota governor, Tim Pawlenty, is off to a slow start selling books, but his rounds on the pre-presidential campaign memoir circuit have people searching for him at a higher rate on Google.

...for a little bit anyway.

*No, Sarah Palin is not included. Her search volume always dwarfs all the other candidates'.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Yeah, but what about the caucuses? 2012 Caucus Date Calculus

FHQ has done a fair amount of talking about the impact state legislatures (and more broadly speaking, state governments) will have on the 2012 presidential primary calendar. That offers a glimpse into the overall decision-making calculus -- in terms of timing -- but does not provide the full picture. Obviously, state legislatures or state governments have a say in the matter when it comes to states that utilize primaries as the mode of delegate allocation. However, that discounts or completely misses activity in caucus states. I argued and ultimately found that the state parties that are behind the decision on timing in caucus states generally -- all other things being held equal -- have an easier time of shifting the dates on which their delegate selection events are held. State parties do not face the potential partisanship that is inherent in states with divided government at the time the frontloading* decision is made.

The ease with which state parties can move their caucuses around then, if they so choose, is greater than it is in primary states where the decision has to be filtered through the state legislature and the governor (see this flowchart for an illustration and discussion of the path of least resistance). That said, what do we know about when the decision is likely to be made on when 2012 caucuses will be held? This is a tougher question to get at than the decision in primary states. One cannot simply say, "We know the state legislatures meet during these various windows of time and that is when the decision will be made" in caucus states. What we do know is that the decision in caucus states is likely to be made around the same time as the decisions in primary states. In other words, usually in the winter or spring of the year preceding a presidential election year. Furthermore, we know that the decision is likely to be made during state party gatherings that fall in that window of time; state party central committee meetings or state party conventions, for example. When are the 2008 caucus states' (the ones that don't have their caucus timing determined by state legislatures**) parties meeting over the next several months?

2011 State Party Meetings (Winter & Spring) -- Caucus States
State	Democratic Meetings	Republican Meetings
Alaska	Central Committee Winter Meeting: February 4-6, 2011	Central Committee Winter Meeting: February 2011*
Hawaii	--	Republican State Convention: May 14-15, 2011
Kansas	Washington Days Party Gathering: February 25-26, 2011	Executive Committee Meeting: January 28, 2011 State Party Committee Meeting: January 29, 2011
Maine	State Party Committee Meetings: January 23, 2011 March 27, 2011 May 22, 2011	--
Minnesota	State Central Committee Meeting: February 5, 2011	Spring State Central Committee Meeting: April 16, 2011**
Nebraska***	--	--
North Dakota	--	--
Washington	Spring State Committee Meeting: April 30, 2011	--
Wyoming	--	--
Notes: *The Alaska Republican Party left the official date of this meeting mark as ?? in a summary of the minutes from their last central committee meeting. **The Winter meeting took place during December. ***The Democratic side is the one worth looking at here. The Republican Party in the state has typically used the May state-funded primary for delegate allocation. The Democratic Party in Nebraska first utilized a caucus in 2008. Without a contested nomination race in 2012, Nebraska Democrats are likely to revert to the primary.

This leaves some holes, but gives us some idea of when the decision on the timing of 2012 caucuses is likely to occur. Neither of the North Dakota parties' websites were terribly forthcoming with information about party meetings, nor were the sites of many of the Republican state parties. Sadly, that is the information that is most needed. Democratic caucus timing is near inconsequential, but Republican caucuses, with a contested nomination race, are far more interesting, yet lacking for information.

Let me make a few state-specific notes:

Hawaii Republicans have already changed the date of their caucuses for 2012. At the 2009 Hawaii Republican Convention, the party moved the the delegate allocation decision from the May convention to a February caucus. We should expect a similar decision to take place at the convention again (especially considering the earlier move put the state in violation of RNC rules on delegate selection).

Minnesota's state legislature, as recently as 2009, examined the possibility of switching to a primary for 2012. Take the above information on the Land of 10,000 Lakes with a grain of salt, then. It may be that the state legislature considers that possibility again. [The Minnesota representative on the Rules and Bylaws Committee mentioned at their meeting last May that there was hopeful that the state would finally go that route.]

Finally, will Wyoming Republicans violate Republican Party rules again and hold a very early caucus in 2012? The state party early in 2007 opted to go on the same January 22 date that the Democratic Party had reserved for New Hampshire, but moved again once it was apparent that the Granite state was moving to protect their first in the nation primary status. The latter decision didn't come until August 2007.

Though there are some gaps overall, this gives us at least some information as to when some of the caucus states will decide on when they will hold their first-step meetings.

*I have attempted to be careful with my language within the context of primary movement for 2012. It may be that I slip up and use the term frontloading instead. The reason I raise this issue is that with the new national party rules attempting to curb frontloading, that isn't the issue this cycle. Instead, we're left to examine the decisions of states that are in violation of the rules and need to shift the date of their primaries and caucuses to later dates. That isn't to suggest that there will be no frontloading during this cycle. Rather, we are most certainly going to see far fewer instances of frontloading; states at the back of the pack that decide to move up to the earliest point the parties allow -- the first Tuesday in March -- or to flaunt the party rules and hold February contests.

**Colorado, Minnesota and until recently North Dakota.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

New Hampshire Straw Poll To Be Held Saturday

I hope they invite a representative and proportional group of independents to this straw poll to mimic what next year's primary in the Granite state might actually be like.

From the National Journal:

WMUR-TV is partnering with ABC News to conduct a straw poll on Jan. 22 at the state GOP's convention when it elects its new chair. The attendees will be the state party's nearly 493 committee members, which include many of the most important endorsements for the 2012 presidential contenders.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Washington State Republican Party Opposes Bill to Eliminate 2012 Presidential Primary

Earlier today FHQ discussed the companion House bill that replicates the Senate bill introduced last week to cancel the 2012 presidential primary in Washington state. Both bills were initiated by Democrats in each chamber on the request of Democratic governor, Christine Gregoire and Republican secretary of state Sam Reed. The state House and Senate are both controlled by the Democratic Party (56D - 42R, House; 27D - 22R, Senate) and both bills were introduced and sponsored by members of the Democratic majority in the House and Senate.

Widespread, bipartisan support, then, may not be necessary.

And it doesn't necessarily look like it will happen. The Washington State Republican Party chair, Luke Esser, spoke against the measure yesterday at the public hearing for the Senate bill (SB 5119).

From the party's blog:

The Washington State Republican Party (WSRP) has always used the primary results to determine delegate allocations to the Republican National Convention which officially nominates the President. Eliminating the Presidential Primary disenfranchises thousands of individuals who cannot make their local precinct caucuses. Because of this the WSRP stands against eliminating the primary which was instituted via citizen initiative.

WSRP Chairman Luke Esser will be in Olympia testifying against the bill.

As was detailed in an earlier post, Washington Republicans have for several presidential nomination cycles now split the allocation of their convention delegates between both a caucus and a primary while the Democrats have typically used just a caucus with the state-funded primary serving as an advisory beauty contest. The argument from the state Republican Party reflects that difference and may ultimately fall on deaf (and Democratic) ears in committee and on the floor of each chamber should these bills make it that far. In the end, those majorities will make Republican opposition to the bill (if it exists -- The state party doesn't necessarily speak for individual Republican members of the state House or Senate.) moot.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.