A Follow Up on the Oregon Primary Bill

FHQ was fortunate enough yesterday and today to have exchanged emails with Tyler Smith, the attorney who spoke on behalf of the Oregon Republican Party at the public hearing on HB 2429 on March 9. As we have discussed here during this week, that bill proposes moving the Oregon primaries -- including the presidential primary -- from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June. No, that shift is not on the surface all that consequential, moving the Beaver state's primary from late in the presidential nomination process to latest in the presidential nomination process.

However, as is often the case, local factors can play a significant role in shaping a state party's reaction to any elections legislation and that is the situation here. FHQ's statements regarding the points raised in the hearing on HB 2429 were extensions of an Oregon-based blog that left some doubt as to the true nature of both the Republican and Democratic stances on the bill in question. First of all, as Mr. Smith pointed out to me, he was the only one who made any statement at the hearing. The Democratic Party of Oregon has yet to weigh in and the only representative of the party to speak on the matter was House Leader Dave Hunt who co-chairs the committee from which the legislation originated. And that was not necessarily the official position of the state party.

As for the Oregon Republican Party response, it makes more sense given the proper context. Mr. Smith explained that Oregon Republican Party bylaws require the party to have completed the delegate selection process -- a process that is complicated by the fact that the party allocates delegates proportionally --by July 1 (Article XVII, Section A). However, if in 2012, the Oregon presidential primary is on June 12, the results would not be certified until thirty days later, or July 11. As the allocation is proportional, that certification is necessary in order complete the allocation properly. But beyond that, it is less than proper to have allocated delegates ten days after the deadline to have done so. The primary move proposed in HB 2429, then, is a very real problem for the Oregon Republican Party.

Well, why not just change the deadline? Why indeed. Again, let us look to the Oregon Republican Party's bylaws. Changes can only be made at the Biennial Organizational Meeting (Article XXVI, Section A) which occurs between January 1 and February 28 of odd numbered years (Article IV, Section A), a point that has already passed in this presidential election cycle. The party also has the option of make amendments to the bylaws -- presumably including the aforementioned July 1 deadline -- at "duly convened" meeting of the Oregon Republican Party State Central Committee (Article XXVI, Section A). There is time in which to make that change, but it is unclear if the State Central Committee is willing or able to get together to get that done should the bill passed the Oregon legislature and be signed into law.

This really is a fabulous example of the overlap of state party and national party rules with state law. And that in a nutshell is why fundamentally altering the presidential nomination process is so difficult.

Recent Posts:

Substitute House Bill in Missouri Now Includes Provision to Move Presidential Primary to March

The Links (3/11/11): Staffing Up

Oregon Democrats and Republicans on Opposite Ends of Primary Debate

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Substitute House Bill in Missouri Now Includes Provision to Move Presidential Primary to March

A committee substitute to a broader elections bill in the Missouri House now includes a section that would move the Show-Me state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. The bill, HB 121, is sponsored by the same representative -- House Elections Committee chair, Tony Dugger (R) -- as the other state House measure designed to shift the date on which the presidential primary is held. At this point, both HB 121 and HB 503 have emerged with favorable reports from committee and the only difference between the two bills in terms of election dates is that the former seemingly eliminates the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February as a date on which general municipal elections can be held. The latter leaves that February date as an option. In terms of the presidential primary, though, the intent is the same; to move the date back to March.

Recent Posts:

The Links (3/11/11): Staffing Up

Oregon Democrats and Republicans on Opposite Ends of Primary Debate

An Update on Utah: Locked in on Feb. 7?

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Links (3/11/11): Staffing Up

The week that was in the invisible primary in the 2012 race for the Republican nomination was one of signing staff for nascent presidential runs.

Haley Barbour brought in Jim Dyke as a communications adviser and James Richardson as an online communications aide to Haley's PAC. Dyke has South Carolina ties and John DiStaso at the Manchester Union-Leader links Richardson to New Hampshire, though he's made the rounds online, with the College Republican National Committee and with the RNC in 2008 and the NRSC in 2010.

Tim Pawlenty meanwhile has either signed Eric Woolson or at the very least gained his support if Pawlenty runs. Regardless of the distinction, this is big simply because Woolson worked with Mike Huckabee in 2008.

Rick Santorum continues to add PAC staff in New Hampshire.

And even though this isn't technically staff, Mitt Romney continues to work Florida for important campaign donors and endorsements. The move could pay dividends in the state during the primary and general election phases of the campaign.

Recent Posts:

Oregon Democrats and Republicans on Opposite Ends of Primary Debate

An Update on Utah: Locked in on Feb. 7?

Oklahoma Senate Passes Second Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Oregon Democrats and Republicans on Opposite Ends of Primary Debate

The public hearing yesterday on HB 2429 -- a bill proposed in the Oregon House in January to move the Beaver state's primary from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June -- clearly indicated a partisan break in sentiment on the intent of the legislation. Oregon Democrats -- the majority party in the Oregon House -- came out in favor of the move.

House Democratic Leader Dave Hunt, who co-chairs the House Rules Committee, said he's considering the bill because it would shorten the period for the general election and provide more space between the new even-year sessions of the Legislature and the primary.

In the even years, the session could run as late as the filing deadline in early March, said Hunt, adding that he would prefer to provide some breathing space between the two.

Shortening the general election by what would amount to three weeks is probably not a solid enough argument for Democrats to make, but the filing deadline argument has some precedent. Discussions in Kentucky during the 2011 legislative session and in Arkansas in 2009 -- both concerning bills to move primaries to August -- contained similar arguments. The perceived benefit is that the filing deadline and thus the decision to run for candidates comes at a point in which the legislature is no longer in session. The "breathing space" Hunt mentions would separate legislative decisions from decisions to run for office; that the latter would have less influence on the former.

Legislative members of the Oregon GOP and the state party voiced far different opinions on the proposed move.

At the hearing, Tyler Smith, a lawyer representing the Oregon Republican Party, opposed the bill. He said the later primary date could complicate the ability of the party to select delegates for the Republican National Convention. And Rep. Vicki Berger, R-Salem, said she was skeptical of holding elections so close to summer when voters have their attentions diverted.

I don't know that either side has really developed a clear set of arguments on this proposed move. Three or four weeks deeper into the spring (or school year summer) probably won't make all that much difference to voters and it certainly won't complicate national convention delegate selection. Other states have scheduled and have had in the past early June primaries with little or no difficulty. The only potential conflict is that a later primary may come slightly closer to the point at which the state parties hold state conventions and begin identifying actual delegates to attend the national conventions. Those occur in July in Oregon, though, and the results of any primary would certainly have been finalized by that point whether in May or June.

In any event, there don't seem to be strong arguments for or against this measure and that doesn't necessarily bode well for the bill passing and being signed into law. Plus, in the grand scheme of things, it isn't in any way altering the impact Oregon is likely to have on the outcome of the Republican nomination race. Both dates are late enough that any impact would be dependent upon the race lasting that long. It could happen, but that goes against the grain of all post-reform Republican nominations.

NOTE: See an update on this post (with a deeper explanation of some of the state-level factors) here.

Recent Posts:

An Update on Utah: Locked in on Feb. 7?

Oklahoma Senate Passes Second Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March

The Links (3/9/11): Ohio

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

An Update on Utah: Locked in on Feb. 7?

While some continue to harp on the Florida problem, there are other states that more immediately threaten the informally bartered scheduling arrangement the two national parties hammered out last year for the 2012 presidential primaries. Minnesota is somewhat locked into a February 7 caucus date for 2012, and while that falls just a day after when the national parties would like Iowa to hold its first in the nation caucuses, the state parties in Minnesota have the final say in the matter. The Minnesota GOP and DFL have to pay for the caucuses and can choose to schedule them when and where they want, though the national parties can lean on the state parties in a way that they cannot with state legislatures. The Minnesota situation is one, then, that has yet to completely play out. To some extent, it may depend on what happens in Florida. Should the state legislature in the Sunshine state opt to shift the primary back, pressure would grow on Minnesota's GOP to shift back as well.¹

Minnesota aside, however, the most imminent threat to the 2012 calendar is Utah. As FHQ pointed out last week, the state legislature in the Beehive state was set to wrap up the work of its 2011 session by March 10 -- today. At that point there were several active bills that dealt with or mentioned the state's Western States Presidential Primary, but none that directly dealt with an alteration of the February 7 date on which the primary is scheduled for 2012. In other words, there was active legislation dealing with elections, but it would take an amendment including a provision to change the presidential primary date as opposed to a newly introduced piece of legislation.

That window now seems to have closed. First of all, the deadline for one chamber of the legislature to have finished up consideration of bills and transmit them to the opposite chamber came and went with little fanfare on March 7 -- this past Monday. That deadline does not preclude the second chamber from adding amendments to an engrossed bill -- one that has passed one chamber -- but no such action has occurred between Monday's deadline and the today's final day of the session. In fact, the bills that even make mention of the Western States Presidential Primary now fall into two categories: 1) Bills that failed to pass one chamber by Monday and 2) Bills that have already been enrolled -- passed both chambers -- and are in the process of being transmitted to the governor for his consideration. Neither the bills that are dead nor those that are on the way to the governor include any provision to shift the February date on which the 2012 Utah presidential primary will be held.

Utah, then, is locked into February 7 for next year. The state-sanctioned, state-funded primary will take place on February 7 and while it is true that the state parties in Utah, like Minnesota, have some final say in this, they are less likely to pony up the money necessary to hold a caucus at a later date when a state-funded option is available. Utah Democrats may face some pressure from the DNC to hold a later caucus, but it is unclear how receptive the party would be to that. The best indication of their motives will be when the state party releases a draft of its delegate selection plan for public comment. Republicans in the state, however, have more incentive to buck the national party rules. They have a contested nomination race that might involve up to two favorite son candidates (Romney and Huntsman) and they, of course, have a state-funded option on February 7 at their disposal. So while there is a tradition of caucuses -- early in the post-reform era -- and party-run primaries in the Beehive state, Republicans are now likely to ignore that given a state-sanctioned alternative, albeit at non-compliant time -- on the first Tuesday in February.

With Utah seemingly more locked in on February 7 than Minnesota, the Republican calendar will undoubtedly and now somewhat more officially, kick off some time in January as opposed to the parties' preferred point in February.

NOTE: More on the situation in Utah here.

--

¹There is no doubt that the Minnesota DFL will schedule a later caucus date to comply with DNC rules. They will not pay the full costs of a caucus in February only to have the national party strip the state's Democratic delegation of half or more of its ranks in an uncontested race.

Recent Posts:

Oklahoma Senate Passes Second Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March

The Links (3/9/11): Ohio

Oregon Bill to Move Primaries Back to June

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Oklahoma Senate Passes Second Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March

For the second time in as many weeks, the Oklahoma Senate has passed a bill to shift the Sooner state's presidential primary back from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. However, SB 602 differs from SB 808 -- passed last week -- in that the former not only changes the presidential primary date but it also alters the date on which statewide and local primaries are held. The statewide primaries would move from the last Tuesday in July to the last Tuesday in June.

The legislation has a state House equivalent (HB 1615) that is sponsored by the same representative -- Rules Committee chair, Rep. Gary Banz (R-101st, Midwest City) -- who sponsored the House version of SB 808 (HB 1614). Now all four bills are being considered in the House.

Recent Posts:

The Links (3/9/11): Ohio

Oregon Bill to Move Primaries Back to June

The Links 3/8/11

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Links (3/9/11): Ohio

Is there something unique about Ohio and the race to 270 electoral votes in the presidential general election?

William Galston says yes at least in terms of Obama's reelection chances.

Others agree but disagree:

Dave Weigel maps it.

Jonathan Bernstein says the Buckeye state is just like any other close state: in an election that favors one candidate over the other, most of the swing states are likely to break for that favored candidate.

Nate Silver parrots Bernstein and adds that "as the nation goes, so goes Ohio".

Ohio is like any other state in the middle column of the figure below (The figure reflects the 2008 results but with 2012 electoral vote numbers.):

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (153)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (166)	NE-4 (58)
VT-3 (10)	WA-12 (165)	IA-6 (263)	SD-3 (150)	KY-8 (54)
RI-4 (14)	MI-16 (181)	CO-9*** (272/275)	ND-3 (147)	LA-8 (46)
MA-11 (25)	OR-7 (188)	VA-13 (285/266)	AZ-11 (144)	AR-6 (38)
NY-29 (54)	NJ-14 (202)	OH-18 (303/253)	SC-9 (133)	AL-9 (32)
DE-3 (57)	NM-5 (207)	FL-29 (332/235)	TX-38 (124)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (77)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (343/206)	WV-5 (86)	ID-4 (20)
MD-10 (87)	NV-6 (223)	NC-15+1**** (359/195)	MS-6 (81)	UT-6 (16)
CA-55 (142)	PA-20 (243)	MO-10 (179)	TN-11 (75)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (149)	MN-10 (253)	MT-3 (169)	KS-6 (64)	WY-3 (3)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. McCain's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. ****Nebraska allocates electoral votes based on statewide results and the results within each of its congressional districts. Nebraska's 2nd district voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

It will blow with the partisan winds like any other state, but Ohio isn't anymore unique than other competitive states like Colorado or Virginia or Florida or North Carolina. The Buckeye state ended up in Obama's column in 2008 but is not a necessary part of the president's electoral vote calculus in 2012; not anymore than any other competitive state anyway.

Recent Posts:

Oregon Bill to Move Primaries Back to June

The Links 3/8/11

2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Feb. 28-March 6)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Oregon Bill to Move Primaries Back to June

There are a couple of bills before the Oregon legislature -- introduced earlier -- concerning the timing of primaries in the Beaver state, but one (SB 615) leaves the presidential primary alone while moving the state and local primaries to September.¹ The other, however, introduced at the behest of the House Interim Committee on Rules, proposes moving all of the primaries -- presidential included -- from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June. HB 2429, if passed and signed into law, would place Oregon's presidential primary -- and those for state and local offices as well -- on June 12, the final day in which delegate selection events can be held according to the national parties' rules regarding delegate selection.

Section 254.056 of the Oregon Statutes does not as it is currently written separately mention the various primaries, merely the date on which the primary is to be held. SB 615 amends the code to reflect separate dates for the two sets of primaries, but HB 2429 does not. The latter continues to treat all of the primary elections as one and on one date.

Here's the current law:

254.056 Date and purpose of general election and primary election. (1) The general election shall be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of each even-numbered year. Except as provided in ORS 254.650, at the general election officers of the state and subdivisions of the state, members of Congress and electors of President and Vice President of the United States as are to be elected in that year shall be elected.

(2) The primary election shall be held on the third Tuesday in May of each even-numbered year. At the primary election precinct committeepersons shall be elected and major political party candidates shall be nominated for offices to be filled at the general election held in that year. [1979 c.190 §229; 1979 c.316 §20a; 1987 c.267 §1; 1995 c.712 §1; 1999 c.59 §64; 1999 c.999 §28; 2001 c.965 §12; 2003 c.542 §7]

And here is how HB 2429 amends it:

254.056 is amended to read:   254.056. (1) The general election shall be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of each even-numbered year. Except as provided in ORS 254.650, at the general election officers of the state and subdivisions of the state, members of Congress and electors of President and Vice President of the United States as are to be elected in that year shall be elected.   (2) The primary election shall be held on the   { - third Tuesday in May - }  { +  second Tuesday in June + } of each even-numbered year. At the primary election precinct committeepersons shall be elected and major political party candidates shall be nominated for offices to be filled at the general election held in that year.

No, this isn't, as was the case with Idaho, a big move, but it is another proposed move backward and one that was not necessary to bring Oregon back into compliance with national party rules. Overall, it is a curious move simply because it isn't clear what the motivation -- at least in regard to the presidential primary timing -- is.

¹This bill would place the state and local primaries very close to the back end of the window to hold primaries and remain in compliance with the MOVE act mandate (in order to finish primary elections, print ballots and get them out to military and overseas personnel abroad 45 days prior to the general election date).

UPDATE: HB 2429 is slated for a public hearing on March 9.

Recent Posts:

The Links 3/8/11

2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Feb. 28-March 6)

Bill to Tie Presidential Primary to Parties' Use Passes Washington State House

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Links 3/8/11

Charlie Cook asks "next in line" or "no one's in line" for the GOP nomination.

Chris Cillizza has his own take on the "frontrunner-less" GOP field.

Whether a frontrunner emerges may determine whether Alabama is irrelevant in next year's primaries.

Ohio's still concerned about how redistricting might affect the March primary next year.

But that's not new.

Huckabee briefly passed Palin in Google searches last week. I don't know what it says about the metric that Kenya/Portman triggered more searches than Gingrich's "bobbled" announcement last Thursday. Huckabee's jump was the first past Palin since Bobby Jindal in the lead up to and aftermath of his State of the Union response in 2009.

Recent Posts:

2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Feb. 28-March 6)

Bill to Tie Presidential Primary to Parties' Use Passes Washington State House

Louisiana Republican Sees Need to Move Presidential Primary Back

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Feb. 28-March 6)

Last week proved to be a busy one for state legislative action concerning the scheduling of presidential primaries. Legislatures convened, adjourned, introduced legislation, held hearings on bills and passed bills moving or potentially canceling primaries across the country. Here's a recap:

• Pass it on: In Oklahoma, the state Senate passed SB 808 to move the Sooner state's presidential primary back to the first Tuesday in March from the first Tuesday in February. That bill has moved over to the House (where a similar bill has been proposed) for consideration.

In the far northwest of the country, the state House in Washington on Saturday passed a bill to require the two major parties there to utilize the presidential primary to allocate all of their convention delegates as a means of justifying having the primary (and the associated costs) at all in future cycles.

• "Do Pass": The Missouri Senate bill to move the Show-Me state's primary back to March was favorably reported out of the Financial and Government Organization and Elections Committee last week. That clear the way for the bill to be considered on the floor of the Senate.

In Alabama, a bill to move the presidential primary back to June to coincide with other statewide and local primaries was not only introduced during the first week of the legislature's session, but it was referred to and favorably reported from the Constitution, Campaigns and Elections Committee as well.

• Introducing...: Bills were introduced in Missouri (to move the primary to June), Alabama (to move the primary to June), Georgia (to give the secretary of state the power to set the primary date) and Connecticut (to move the primary to March) last week. Of those, the Georgia bill holds the most intrigue because it would set up a system of primary date selection similar to what New Hampshire has had in place since the 1970s. The other bills merely propose moving the respective states' primaries back into compliance with the national party rules.

• Can you hear me now?: Hearings were held in the Missouri House and in Washington DC over the active primary legislation in each. Both are still under consideration in committee at the moment.

• Locked in: Minnesota's state law on caucuses triggered a February 7, 2012 date for the states caucuses next year when the two parties failed to coordinate an alternate date. It remains to be seen whether the national parties deem this problematic, but as it stands, the Minnesota caucuses would fall just one day after the date on which the national parties want the Iowa caucuses to be held.

• As has been mentioned in this space several times, there are currently 18 states with presidential primaries scheduled for February 2012. That would put those 18 states in violation of both parties' delegate selection rules for 2012.

• Of those 18 primary states, 16 of them (Alabama, California, Connecticut, Missouri, New York, Arizona, Georgia, Delaware, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Utah, Oklahoma and Virginia) have convened or completed their 2011 state legislative sessions.

• Of those 16 states, 10 (Alabama, California, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Connecticut, Georgia, and Virginia) have bills that have been introduced and are active within the state legislature to move their contests' dates back. California, Missouri and New Jersey have bills that would eliminate an early and separate presidential primaries and position those events with the other primaries for state and local offices. That would mean June presidential primaries for both states if those bills pass and are signed into law. In the remaining states, the efforts are to simply shift the states' presidential primaries from dates in violation of the two major parties' rules to the earliest allowed date (the first Tuesday in March). There is also an active bill in Washington, DC to move the districts primary back to June.

• The Utah legislature will adjourn for the year on Thursday (March 10) and has yet to propose any legislation to shift the date on which the presidential primary will be held next year.

• During this next week, the state legislature in Florida will convene bringing the total of non-compliant states currently in legislative session to 16. Those 16 early states in conflict with the national parties' rules will be the ones to watch. But we are to a point in the cycle where there are still state legislatures yet to convene but also states that are wrapping up business and are thus unable to make changes to election laws past that point (see Utah above).

• How would all of this look if all these bills happened to be passed and signed into law? States with active bills to move their primaries are listed twice, once where law has them currently and once in bold and italicized for where active legislation could move them.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE CURRENT CALENDAR, ONLY WHAT IT COULD LOOK LIKE IF CURRENT LEGISLATION IS ENACTED.

Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Minnesota caucuses, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Utah

Saturday, February 11: Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14: Washington (DC), Maryland, Virginia

Saturday, February 18: Nevada Republican caucuses, Nevada Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, February 21: Hawaii Republican caucuses, Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28: Arizona, Michigan

Tuesday, March 6: Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia

Tuesday, March 13: Mississippi

Tuesday, March 20: Colorado caucuses, Illinois

Tuesday, April 3: Kansas, Maryland

Tuesday, April 24: Pennsylvania

Tuesday, May 1: Tennessee

Tuesday, May 8: Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon

Tuesday, May 22: Arkansas, Kentucky and Washington

Tuesday, June 5: Alabama, California, Massachusetts, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

Tuesday, June 12: Missouri, Washington, DC

Tuesday, August 7: Kentucky

Recent Posts:

Bill to Tie Presidential Primary to Parties' Use Passes Washington State House

Louisiana Republican Sees Need to Move Presidential Primary Back

Bill to Hand Power to Set Primary Date Over to Secretary of State Filed in Georgia

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.