Louisiana Republican State Central Committee Passes Resolution on March Presidential Primary

Apropos to our post earlier this morning on Louisiana, the Pelican state's Republican State Central Committee today met and passed a resolution calling on the state legislature to shift the presidential primary there from the second (or third) Saturday in February to the first Saturday after the first Tuesday in March. Now, FHQ had mentioned that there had been some discussion about that particular point or even moving the primary back to April, but it appears as if the former won out.

That isn't all that noteworthy, but some of the comments coming out of the meeting from various members of the committee were enlightening. Ed Anderson at the New Orleans Times-Picayune highlighted the fact that some on the committee had raised the issue of the budgetary constraints that have affected other states' plans -- or planning more appropriately -- for primaries next year:

Michael Chittom, a committee member from Baton Rouge, asked whether the Legislature would be in the mood to finance a presidential primary on any date next year in light of the state's money shortage.

"$6 million is a lot of money in today's budget crisis," Villere said. If canceling the primary is what "we need to do to help with the budget," he said, "I wouldn't see us fighting it. We all have to sacrifice."

Villere said that if the primary is canceled by the Legislature as a cost-saving move, the GOP could hold caucuses, stage its own elections or hold a state convention to pick delegates to the national meeting next year.

So, the tab on the presidential primary in the state comes to approximately $6 million and the Louisiana Republican Party would not be all that averse to shifting to a caucus or convention set up if the state legislature deemed the presidential primary too costly and cut it. That is fairly significant and contrasts with how I described the likelihood of Utah Republicans adopting a later caucus system in the face of a non-compliant -- and less delegate-rich -- primary in February. Why is it that Utah would eschew that option and Louisiana Republicans would seemingly nonchalantly accept it?

Louisiana, like any other state, is unique in how it allocates national convention delegates. On top of that there are differences in how the two parties in the Pelican state accomplish that task. Democrats have typically used the state-funded primary, while Republicans have used, depending on the year, a combination primary-caucus. In 1996, for example, Louisiana Republicans held an early February caucus to allocate some delegates and that preceded the usual second Tuesday in March primary. But in other years, the delegate allocation balance between the two has varied. The point is that Louisiana Republicans have an attendant caucus process alongside the primary.

The issue with Utah Republicans was or would be that they would have to fund a caucus if they were somehow forced to abandon the state-funded primary as a means of allocating their delegates. That isn't the case in Louisiana. Republicans in the state already have the caucus option covered and can fall back on that were the presidential primary to be defunded by the state legislature. Of course whether that is actually a proposal that is on the table is unknown. But what is known is that this is why the Republicans from the meeting today mentioned the Democratic Party in the state. The burden would be higher for Democrats -- sans primary -- than it would be for Republicans, and the state party and the Democratic-controlled Senate may be less willing to go along with such a plan.

The March primary resolution from state Republicans, the possibility of the state legislature eliminating the primary altogether and potential Democratic opposition to the idea are all matters to keep close watch on when the Louisiana legislature convenes next month.

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Public Hearing on Presidential Primary Bill in Connecticut Draws No Input from State Parties

According to this report by Mark Pazniokas in The Connecticut Mirror, the public hearing on HB 6532 on Friday drew no response from either the Democratic or Republican Parties in the Nutmeg state. As the article mentions, the state has to move the date on which it holds its presidential primary in 2012 to comply with the national parties' rules on delegate selection event timing. And that is exactly what this bill is seeking to accomplish, moving the primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March.

The thing that seems to be frustrating Connecticut Secretary of State Denise Merrill is that the state has some options to maximize its delegates based on both parties' delegate selection rules and the state parties have yet to "weigh in", as she said, on whether moving further back for bonus delegates is a worthwhile pursuit. On the Democratic side of the ledger...

If the state delays its primary until April, it will be rewarded with a 10 percent bonus in the number of delegates. Wait until May 1, the bonus doubles to 20 percent.

And if the state can manage to convince two neighboring states to agree on a regional primary date on or after March 20, it will receive an additional bonus of 15 percent.

But that is only part of the equation. Though the RNC does not have the same incentive system, the national party is allowing state parties to decide how they would like to allocate their delegates if they hold contests after April 1. Connecticut Republicans could maintain their winner-take-all allocation they have used in recent election cycles. That tradition would be affected depending on how the state legislature acts on this bill.

The argument could be made that by not voicing an opinion at the hearing the two state parties are in support of the move back to March. Could be. Merrill says it is "all about being relevant" and for a state the size of Connecticut relevance may well be defined as holding a delegate selection event prior to the point at which the nomination has been decided as opposed to attempting to maximize delegates by holding a primary that may fall after that point.

NOTE: As an aside, I think it is noteworthy that the DNC has contacted secretaries of state in the non-compliant states like Connecticut to remind them of the window of time in which states can hold contests.

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The Case for a First Saturday After the First Tuesday in March Primary in Louisiana

Earlier this week FHQ took a look at some of the preliminary discussions in Louisiana as to where the state should move its presidential primary in order to comply with national party rules governing delegate selection in 2012. The two main ideas within the ranks of the Republican Party in the Pelican state -- the party that controls the state legislature and thus the means of altering the primary date -- were to either carve out a less populated date the weekend after the first Tuesday in March or to shift back into April to take advantage of the RNC allowance for winner-take-all allocation after April 1.

Louisiana Republican Party chair, Roger Villere, prefers the latter while Republican State Central Committee member, Mike Bayham, continues to make a push for a set up similar to 2008 when the state positioned its primary on the second Saturday of February. As Bayham points out...

However, by moving to the first Saturday allowed by the national parties in March, Louisiana would be holding its primary before the nominations have been wrapped up.

Most importantly, candidates will have an interest in campaigning here since the major contenders will be assured of leaving the state with something (unlike the controversial system in 2008 where Mike Huckabee received a plurality of the vote but not a single delegate).

With the Louisiana primary held only a few days after the front-loaded first Tuesday in March primary date, the nomination will still be undecided, thus candidates will have to spend time here and educate themselves about federal issues that affect our state, specifically energy production and coastal erosion.

The difference between having the Louisiana presidential primary on the first Saturday following the first Tuesday in March versus any date in April is whether we want our state to matter enough for presidential candidates to visit and make commitments on the federal issues that affect our state versus reverting to our previous role as an irrelevant amen corner.

This discussion highlights the calculus that goes into the primary positioning decision in states the size of Louisiana. More often than not the calculus is simply a matter of giving primary voters in a state a say in selecting a nominee as opposed to gambling with falling after the point at which one candidate has amassed 50% of the delegates plus one (or has a large enough delegate lead to made surpassing that point inevitable). The later a contest is, the less the chances that the results in that state will prove consequential in a nomination race. Bayham is making the point that April will fall too late for Louisiana to matter in 2012. And it is a gamble to be sure. But so too is holding a primary the weekend immediately after Super Tuesday. It isn't clear at this point that the Republican nomination race will not have wrapped up by that point either. The intention is understood though. The attempt is to carve out a niche where Louisiana might have an influence over the process.

Again, it isn't readily apparent that that Saturday position is going to be any more advantageous than an early April date or for that matter any different than the similar position Louisiana was in during the 2008 cycle. I can understand that changing the state-level method of allocating delegates may make a difference,¹ but how much impact will a change there have on the clearest ways of quantifying influence: candidate visits and media attention. How much better than 23 visits can Louisiana do? Will tweaking the delegate allocation rules on the state level impact that to any great degree?

If states seek to increase either of these measures of attention there are a few rules of the game to use as a guide. Bayham follows one of them quite closely: take note of the number of states with simultaneously scheduled contests. The less crowded the date is, the more it follows that the state would receive more attention. This is also conditioned by how early or late a contest is. Earlier is still better in most cases. The other thing for state actors to look at in making this decision is the national party rules.

Again, it appears that both Republican ideas in the Louisiana case attempt to effectively utilize the national party rules as a means of maximizing the Pelican state's influence. On the one hand, Villere is following the 2008 model; that the race will last longer and that Louisiana could fall into that sweet spot in the calendar where there are not a great number of contests. On top of that, Louisiana could opt for winner-take-all allocation after that point and potentially increase its influence even more. On the other hand, Bayham is estimating that Super Tuesday (and any contests prior to that point) will go a long way toward deciding who the Republican nominee will be and that Louisiana could either continue to help or actually put one candidate over the 50% plus one delegate threshold.

The only clear way for states historically to greatly affect their influence is to move in a year when the parties open the window in which contests can be held. Early adopters of earlier and earlier primaries over the years have been able to increase the amount of attention they receive and that that lasts until that date becomes crowded with other contests in subsequent cycles. This was a point I made back in 2009 when Indiana's legislature was considering a resolution to study the prudence of moving the state's presidential primary to an earlier date was that Indiana had missed their chance. In a series of posts (here, here and here) I found that Indiana would have been better served having moved ahead of the 2004 nomination cycle when the Democrats opened their window to, like the Republicans, allow for February primaries and caucuses. The handful of states that moved up in 2004 by and large increased their amount of attention from 2000 to 2004. When the mass of states that moved to early February for 2008 joined those states, their influence from 2004 disappeared.

Obviously, this is not an option for Louisiana in 2012. They could continue to hold a February primary, but as Bayham points out, that would reduce Louisiana's delegate total enough -- by 50% -- to make it virtually meaningless; not a recipe for drawing candidate and/or media attention. That means that those with the date-setting decision-making power in the state have to find a date that somehow maximizes the state's influence rather than placing it in a position after which the nomination is settled and Louisiana primary voters only ratify a decision made in other states.

To me neither option of the two being discussed by Louisiana Republicans is clearly better than the other. What's driving that to some degree is the uncertainty surrounding the race for the Republican nomination. With prospective candidates holding off on their decisions to enter the race, the development of the field has been stunted. And what, more than anything else, is going to determine how long the nomination race lasts once it enters the primary and caucus phase is whether a clear frontrunner has emerged from the field either during the invisible primary or through success during that period combined with solidifying wins in early contests. No, that doesn't directly affect the decisions that are being made at the state level now on where primaries and caucuses are positioned for 2012, but it is affecting how those actors think about how long the nomination process will last. And that is affecting where states that are considering a move -- or being forced to move due to national party rules -- are considering where to move those contests.

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¹The state required a candidate to receive a majority of the votes in the primary to win any delegates to the Republican Convention, and though both Mike Huckabee and John McCain cleared 40% of the vote in Louisiana, the delegates allocated in the primary went to the convention unpledged.

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A Follow Up on the Oregon Primary Bill

FHQ was fortunate enough yesterday and today to have exchanged emails with Tyler Smith, the attorney who spoke on behalf of the Oregon Republican Party at the public hearing on HB 2429 on March 9. As we have discussed here during this week, that bill proposes moving the Oregon primaries -- including the presidential primary -- from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June. No, that shift is not on the surface all that consequential, moving the Beaver state's primary from late in the presidential nomination process to latest in the presidential nomination process.

However, as is often the case, local factors can play a significant role in shaping a state party's reaction to any elections legislation and that is the situation here. FHQ's statements regarding the points raised in the hearing on HB 2429 were extensions of an Oregon-based blog that left some doubt as to the true nature of both the Republican and Democratic stances on the bill in question. First of all, as Mr. Smith pointed out to me, he was the only one who made any statement at the hearing. The Democratic Party of Oregon has yet to weigh in and the only representative of the party to speak on the matter was House Leader Dave Hunt who co-chairs the committee from which the legislation originated. And that was not necessarily the official position of the state party.

As for the Oregon Republican Party response, it makes more sense given the proper context. Mr. Smith explained that Oregon Republican Party bylaws require the party to have completed the delegate selection process -- a process that is complicated by the fact that the party allocates delegates proportionally --by July 1 (Article XVII, Section A). However, if in 2012, the Oregon presidential primary is on June 12, the results would not be certified until thirty days later, or July 11. As the allocation is proportional, that certification is necessary in order complete the allocation properly. But beyond that, it is less than proper to have allocated delegates ten days after the deadline to have done so. The primary move proposed in HB 2429, then, is a very real problem for the Oregon Republican Party.

Well, why not just change the deadline? Why indeed. Again, let us look to the Oregon Republican Party's bylaws. Changes can only be made at the Biennial Organizational Meeting (Article XXVI, Section A) which occurs between January 1 and February 28 of odd numbered years (Article IV, Section A), a point that has already passed in this presidential election cycle. The party also has the option of make amendments to the bylaws -- presumably including the aforementioned July 1 deadline -- at "duly convened" meeting of the Oregon Republican Party State Central Committee (Article XXVI, Section A). There is time in which to make that change, but it is unclear if the State Central Committee is willing or able to get together to get that done should the bill passed the Oregon legislature and be signed into law.

This really is a fabulous example of the overlap of state party and national party rules with state law. And that in a nutshell is why fundamentally altering the presidential nomination process is so difficult.

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Substitute House Bill in Missouri Now Includes Provision to Move Presidential Primary to March

A committee substitute to a broader elections bill in the Missouri House now includes a section that would move the Show-Me state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. The bill, HB 121, is sponsored by the same representative -- House Elections Committee chair, Tony Dugger (R) -- as the other state House measure designed to shift the date on which the presidential primary is held. At this point, both HB 121 and HB 503 have emerged with favorable reports from committee and the only difference between the two bills in terms of election dates is that the former seemingly eliminates the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February as a date on which general municipal elections can be held. The latter leaves that February date as an option. In terms of the presidential primary, though, the intent is the same; to move the date back to March.

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The Links (3/11/11): Staffing Up

The week that was in the invisible primary in the 2012 race for the Republican nomination was one of signing staff for nascent presidential runs.

Haley Barbour brought in Jim Dyke as a communications adviser and James Richardson as an online communications aide to Haley's PAC. Dyke has South Carolina ties and John DiStaso at the Manchester Union-Leader links Richardson to New Hampshire, though he's made the rounds online, with the College Republican National Committee and with the RNC in 2008 and the NRSC in 2010.

Tim Pawlenty meanwhile has either signed Eric Woolson or at the very least gained his support if Pawlenty runs. Regardless of the distinction, this is big simply because Woolson worked with Mike Huckabee in 2008.

Rick Santorum continues to add PAC staff in New Hampshire.

And even though this isn't technically staff, Mitt Romney continues to work Florida for important campaign donors and endorsements. The move could pay dividends in the state during the primary and general election phases of the campaign.

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Oregon Democrats and Republicans on Opposite Ends of Primary Debate

The public hearing yesterday on HB 2429 -- a bill proposed in the Oregon House in January to move the Beaver state's primary from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June -- clearly indicated a partisan break in sentiment on the intent of the legislation. Oregon Democrats -- the majority party in the Oregon House -- came out in favor of the move.

House Democratic Leader Dave Hunt, who co-chairs the House Rules Committee, said he's considering the bill because it would shorten the period for the general election and provide more space between the new even-year sessions of the Legislature and the primary.

In the even years, the session could run as late as the filing deadline in early March, said Hunt, adding that he would prefer to provide some breathing space between the two.

Shortening the general election by what would amount to three weeks is probably not a solid enough argument for Democrats to make, but the filing deadline argument has some precedent. Discussions in Kentucky during the 2011 legislative session and in Arkansas in 2009 -- both concerning bills to move primaries to August -- contained similar arguments. The perceived benefit is that the filing deadline and thus the decision to run for candidates comes at a point in which the legislature is no longer in session. The "breathing space" Hunt mentions would separate legislative decisions from decisions to run for office; that the latter would have less influence on the former.

Legislative members of the Oregon GOP and the state party voiced far different opinions on the proposed move.

At the hearing, Tyler Smith, a lawyer representing the Oregon Republican Party, opposed the bill. He said the later primary date could complicate the ability of the party to select delegates for the Republican National Convention. And Rep. Vicki Berger, R-Salem, said she was skeptical of holding elections so close to summer when voters have their attentions diverted.

I don't know that either side has really developed a clear set of arguments on this proposed move. Three or four weeks deeper into the spring (or school year summer) probably won't make all that much difference to voters and it certainly won't complicate national convention delegate selection. Other states have scheduled and have had in the past early June primaries with little or no difficulty. The only potential conflict is that a later primary may come slightly closer to the point at which the state parties hold state conventions and begin identifying actual delegates to attend the national conventions. Those occur in July in Oregon, though, and the results of any primary would certainly have been finalized by that point whether in May or June.

In any event, there don't seem to be strong arguments for or against this measure and that doesn't necessarily bode well for the bill passing and being signed into law. Plus, in the grand scheme of things, it isn't in any way altering the impact Oregon is likely to have on the outcome of the Republican nomination race. Both dates are late enough that any impact would be dependent upon the race lasting that long. It could happen, but that goes against the grain of all post-reform Republican nominations.

NOTE: See an update on this post (with a deeper explanation of some of the state-level factors) here.

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An Update on Utah: Locked in on Feb. 7?

While some continue to harp on the Florida problem, there are other states that more immediately threaten the informally bartered scheduling arrangement the two national parties hammered out last year for the 2012 presidential primaries. Minnesota is somewhat locked into a February 7 caucus date for 2012, and while that falls just a day after when the national parties would like Iowa to hold its first in the nation caucuses, the state parties in Minnesota have the final say in the matter. The Minnesota GOP and DFL have to pay for the caucuses and can choose to schedule them when and where they want, though the national parties can lean on the state parties in a way that they cannot with state legislatures. The Minnesota situation is one, then, that has yet to completely play out. To some extent, it may depend on what happens in Florida. Should the state legislature in the Sunshine state opt to shift the primary back, pressure would grow on Minnesota's GOP to shift back as well.¹

Minnesota aside, however, the most imminent threat to the 2012 calendar is Utah. As FHQ pointed out last week, the state legislature in the Beehive state was set to wrap up the work of its 2011 session by March 10 -- today. At that point there were several active bills that dealt with or mentioned the state's Western States Presidential Primary, but none that directly dealt with an alteration of the February 7 date on which the primary is scheduled for 2012. In other words, there was active legislation dealing with elections, but it would take an amendment including a provision to change the presidential primary date as opposed to a newly introduced piece of legislation.

That window now seems to have closed. First of all, the deadline for one chamber of the legislature to have finished up consideration of bills and transmit them to the opposite chamber came and went with little fanfare on March 7 -- this past Monday. That deadline does not preclude the second chamber from adding amendments to an engrossed bill -- one that has passed one chamber -- but no such action has occurred between Monday's deadline and the today's final day of the session. In fact, the bills that even make mention of the Western States Presidential Primary now fall into two categories: 1) Bills that failed to pass one chamber by Monday and 2) Bills that have already been enrolled -- passed both chambers -- and are in the process of being transmitted to the governor for his consideration. Neither the bills that are dead nor those that are on the way to the governor include any provision to shift the February date on which the 2012 Utah presidential primary will be held.

Utah, then, is locked into February 7 for next year. The state-sanctioned, state-funded primary will take place on February 7 and while it is true that the state parties in Utah, like Minnesota, have some final say in this, they are less likely to pony up the money necessary to hold a caucus at a later date when a state-funded option is available. Utah Democrats may face some pressure from the DNC to hold a later caucus, but it is unclear how receptive the party would be to that. The best indication of their motives will be when the state party releases a draft of its delegate selection plan for public comment. Republicans in the state, however, have more incentive to buck the national party rules. They have a contested nomination race that might involve up to two favorite son candidates (Romney and Huntsman) and they, of course, have a state-funded option on February 7 at their disposal. So while there is a tradition of caucuses -- early in the post-reform era -- and party-run primaries in the Beehive state, Republicans are now likely to ignore that given a state-sanctioned alternative, albeit at non-compliant time -- on the first Tuesday in February.

With Utah seemingly more locked in on February 7 than Minnesota, the Republican calendar will undoubtedly and now somewhat more officially, kick off some time in January as opposed to the parties' preferred point in February.

NOTE: More on the situation in Utah here.

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¹There is no doubt that the Minnesota DFL will schedule a later caucus date to comply with DNC rules. They will not pay the full costs of a caucus in February only to have the national party strip the state's Democratic delegation of half or more of its ranks in an uncontested race.

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Oklahoma Senate Passes Second Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March

For the second time in as many weeks, the Oklahoma Senate has passed a bill to shift the Sooner state's presidential primary back from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. However, SB 602 differs from SB 808 -- passed last week -- in that the former not only changes the presidential primary date but it also alters the date on which statewide and local primaries are held. The statewide primaries would move from the last Tuesday in July to the last Tuesday in June.

The legislation has a state House equivalent (HB 1615) that is sponsored by the same representative -- Rules Committee chair, Rep. Gary Banz (R-101st, Midwest City) -- who sponsored the House version of SB 808 (HB 1614). Now all four bills are being considered in the House.

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The Links (3/9/11): Ohio

Is there something unique about Ohio and the race to 270 electoral votes in the presidential general election?

William Galston says yes at least in terms of Obama's reelection chances.

Others agree but disagree:

Dave Weigel maps it.

Jonathan Bernstein says the Buckeye state is just like any other close state: in an election that favors one candidate over the other, most of the swing states are likely to break for that favored candidate.

Nate Silver parrots Bernstein and adds that "as the nation goes, so goes Ohio".

Ohio is like any other state in the middle column of the figure below (The figure reflects the 2008 results but with 2012 electoral vote numbers.):

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (153)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (166)	NE-4 (58)
VT-3 (10)	WA-12 (165)	IA-6 (263)	SD-3 (150)	KY-8 (54)
RI-4 (14)	MI-16 (181)	CO-9*** (272/275)	ND-3 (147)	LA-8 (46)
MA-11 (25)	OR-7 (188)	VA-13 (285/266)	AZ-11 (144)	AR-6 (38)
NY-29 (54)	NJ-14 (202)	OH-18 (303/253)	SC-9 (133)	AL-9 (32)
DE-3 (57)	NM-5 (207)	FL-29 (332/235)	TX-38 (124)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (77)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (343/206)	WV-5 (86)	ID-4 (20)
MD-10 (87)	NV-6 (223)	NC-15+1**** (359/195)	MS-6 (81)	UT-6 (16)
CA-55 (142)	PA-20 (243)	MO-10 (179)	TN-11 (75)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (149)	MN-10 (253)	MT-3 (169)	KS-6 (64)	WY-3 (3)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. McCain's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. ****Nebraska allocates electoral votes based on statewide results and the results within each of its congressional districts. Nebraska's 2nd district voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

It will blow with the partisan winds like any other state, but Ohio isn't anymore unique than other competitive states like Colorado or Virginia or Florida or North Carolina. The Buckeye state ended up in Obama's column in 2008 but is not a necessary part of the president's electoral vote calculus in 2012; not anymore than any other competitive state anyway.

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