The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/21/11)

With Democratic delegate selection plans going public in various states, dates for some of the caucus states are becoming known. So far Hawaii, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming have all proposed dates that will first be public for comment, but then be submitted with any changes to the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee. As such, a calendar update is in order.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
5. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, January 24:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House/Senate)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2)

Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)

Washington, DC (bills: Council)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio

Rhode Island

Texas (bills: House)

Vermont

Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)

Saturday, April 14:

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶

South Dakota

--

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

Recent Posts:

Nebraska Dems Stick with Caucuses Over Primary but Move from February to April

Hawaii Democrats Zero in on April 7 Precinct Caucuses

Wyoming Democrats' Draft Delegate Selection Plan Indicates April Caucuses

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Nebraska Dems Stick with Caucuses Over Primary but Move from February to April

Nebraska Democrats for the first time in 2008 abandoned the Cornhusker state's May presidential primary as a means of allocating national convention delegates and instead adopted a February caucus. The Nebraska Democratic Party will in 2012 again choose delegates to the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte through a series of caucuses. Instead of February, however, the state Democrats will begin the process with precinct caucuses on April 14.

Thus far Democratic caucus states are using the freedom caucus states have in terms of scheduling their delegate selection events -- no partisan conflicts, no checks and balances between the executive and legislative branches, etc. -- to move to later dates. With the pressure of having to hold an early contest that may come from a contested nomination race, Democrats in some caucus states are opting instead to go later and take bonus delegates in the process. That is becoming clearer as more caucus states' Democrats submit draft delegate selection plans for public comment.

[Hat tip to The Green Papers for the link.]

Recent Posts:

Hawaii Democrats Zero in on April 7 Precinct Caucuses

Wyoming Democrats' Draft Delegate Selection Plan Indicates April Caucuses

Oklahoma House Passes Second March Primary Bill

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Hawaii Democrats Zero in on April 7 Precinct Caucuses for 2012

With the release of their draft delegate selection plan this week, Hawaii Democrats, like their brethren in Wyoming, tentatively selected April 7 as the date of the first determining step of their delegate selection process. Those precinct caucuses will kick off a process that will end with the selection of national convention delegates at the Hawaii Democratic convention on May 26, 2012. In 2008, the precinct caucuses in Hawaii took place on February 19. The move, assuming approval from the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee, would bring Hawaii Democrats into compliance with the DNC's delegate selection rules and would bring with it bonus delegates (10% of the delegate total for the April 1-30 period). Again, as was the case with the Wyoming Democratic Party plan, there is no conflict with the national party rules on the timing of the contest. As such, unless there is another violation embedded in the plan, it should meet the committee's approval.

Recent Posts:

Wyoming Democrats' Draft Delegate Selection Plan Indicates April Caucuses

Oklahoma House Passes Second March Primary Bill

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/17/11)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Wyoming Democrats' Draft Delegate Selection Plan Indicates April Caucuses

Though it isn't imminent, the May 2 deadline for state Democratic Parties to have submitted their draft delegate selection plans to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is approaching (Rule 1.D). Before that can happen, though, said draft plans must be posted for thirty days of public viewing/comment prior to submission (Rule 1.C). What that means is that state parties should begin to tip their hands in terms of when they are considering scheduling their delegate selection events. In primary states, that decision is dependent to some degree on what the state legislature has done to schedule or reschedule those contests. Caucus states, on the other hand, are more of an unknown, but these draft delegate selection plans give a glimpse into the state parties' thinking. As long as the first step of the contest occurs within the window of time in which the two national parties allow contests to be held, the approval process from the national parties should be nothing more than a formality.

That seems to be the case in Wyoming where the Democratic Party there has proposed April 7 county caucuses as the first step in determining national convention delegates. Wyoming Democrats appear, it seems, to be shifting the opening of their caucuses back by a month compared to the 2008 county caucuses in a year in which the Democratic nomination will not be contested. By moving back to April, the party opens the possibility of bonus delegates for holding an event in April or later.

Now, it should be noted that the Republican Party has a different set of delegate selection rules and the state parties in caucus states have a different motivation with a contested nomination on the horizon in 2012. That said, Wyoming Republicans are more of a wild card -- especially considering what happened with the Equality state's Republican caucuses in 2008 -- than their Democratic counterparts. As of yet, however, there is no indication from Wyoming Republicans about when they are considering holding the county caucuses in the state.

Recent Posts:

Oklahoma House Passes Second March Primary Bill

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/17/11)

Missouri to a Week After New Hampshire?

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Oklahoma House Passes Second March Primary Bill

The Oklahoma House on Wednesday passed the second of two bills that have originated in the chamber to shift the state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. HB 1615, the companion bill to SB 602 (passed by the Senate last week), passed by a vote of 68Y-27N, a vote with four times as much opposition as the alternate House bill (HB 1614 -- passed Monday by the House). The main difference between the two sets of companion bills is that HB1615/SB 602 contain provisions to not only alter the date of the presidential primary but the primaries for state and local offices as well.

All four bills have passed their houses of origin and are now being considered in the opposite chamber.

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/17/11)

Missouri to a Week After New Hampshire?

California Primary Bill Unanimously Passes Committee Hurdle in Assembly

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/17/11)

With the Utah legislature adjourning last week without either changing the date on which the Beehive state's presidential primary will be held or appropriating funds specifically for the contest, a change is in order with the 2012 presidential primary calendar. Utah has been shifted into the "No Date" category because while there was talk of Utah Republicans utilizing the late June primary for statewide offices as the means of allocating its delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, no official decision has been made.

A change was also made regarding Nevada's shading on the map. Though the two parties in the Silver state have opted to schedule their caucuses for the party-designated February 18 date, with Iowa Republicans now following suit in accepting the February 6 party-designated date there was a discrepancy between how each was being treated on the map. Again, it is FHQ's position that while Nevada or Iowa or even South Carolina or New Hampshire may select a date now, it is only a tentative date until the states currently scheduled throughout the end of January and February move to comply with national party rules. If that doesn't occur, the four exempt states will select dates ahead of the earliest non-exempt state (now Florida).

Links have also been added for new legislation in Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia and Oregon since the last update on March 1.

[Click to Enlarge]

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
3. Finally, Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.

Reading the Calendar:

1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses¹

Tuesday, January 24:

New Hampshire¹

Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses¹

South Carolina¹

A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Tuesday, January 31:

Florida (bills: House/Senate)

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (-34) (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2)

Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Utah

Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)

Washington, DC (bills: Council)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses² (-28) (based on national party rules)

Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona³

Michigan⁴

South Carolina (based on national party rules)

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts⁴ (bills: House)

Ohio

Rhode Island

Texas (bills: House)

Vermont

Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi

Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses⁵ (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)

Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania

May 2012

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico⁶

South Dakota

--

¹ New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

² The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 25, 2011.

³ In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
⁴ Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
⁵ The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
⁶ The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.

Recent Posts:

Missouri to a Week After New Hampshire?

California Primary Bill Unanimously Passes Committee Hurdle in Assembly

Crossover Day Vote Sends Georgia Primary Bill to the State Senate

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.