Gov. McDonnell Makes It Official: Virginia Primary to March

On Friday, March 25, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell signed both HB 1843 and SB 1246 into law, officially moving the Virginia presidential primary from the second Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. Virginia now joins Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont on March 6, the first date on which the national parties are allowing non-exempt states to hold their delegate selection events. The Old Dominion becomes the first state to move its primary back during the 2011 state legislative session. Arkansas and Illinois had moved back previously, but both had done so before the DNC and RNC had settled in on their respective delegate selection rules; requiring all states with primaries scheduled prior to the first Tuesday in March to alter the dates on which their primaries or caucuses are to be held.

A number of bills in other states seek to move primaries back to that point or later on the calendar, but Virginia because of its short legislative session -- one that expired at the end of February -- was forced to move (if it was going to) ahead of most other states.

The updated 2012 presidential primary calendar can be found here.

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Utah Democrats Settle on March Caucuses for 2012

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Much Ado About Nothing in New Mexico

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Utah Democrats Settle on March Caucuses for 2012

On Friday, the Utah Democratic Party released their 2012 Delegate Selection Plan for public comment. The party opted not to do what other Democratic caucus states have recently done -- moved to April caucus dates in order to receive bonus delegates -- and selected March 13 as the date on which neighborhood caucuses will begin the delegate selection process in the Beehive state. Though presidential preference will be gauged in those caucuses, allocation of delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte will not take place until the state party's April 20-21 state convention.

Updated 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar here.

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Maryland House Unanimously Passes Primary Bill, But Senate Version May Now Be at Odds

Much Ado About Nothing in New Mexico

Four years in...

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Maryland House Unanimously Passes Primary Bill, But Senate Version May Now Be at Odds [UPDATED]

The Maryland House yesterday unanimously passed a measure shifting the presidential primary from February to April and the primaries for state and local offices from September to June. HB 671 passed 139-0. The passage of this bill has always been something of a foregone conclusion considering both the Democratic and Republican leadership in the House sponsored the legislation on the request of Governor Martin O'Malley (D).

However, the ease with which this process may resolve itself may have met some resistance today in the Maryland Senate. The Education, Health and Environmental Affairs committee passed by a 9-2 vote an amended version of SB 501 today. That bill differs from the original companion to the House bill (SB 820) in that the presidential primary would be moved from February to the first Tuesday in March, not April and the state and local primaries would be moved to the second Tuesday in July and not the third Tuesday in June. Part of that was rectified in the amendments offered and adopted by the committee, but now the bill headed to the state Senate floor does not match the House version.

The amendments added the leadership to the list of sponsors which originally included only Education, Health and Environmental Affairs committee vice chair, Senator Roy Dyson (D-29th, Calvert, Charles & St. Mary's Counties) and altered the language concerning the timing of the primaries for state and local offices -- changing the proposed July date to the preferred June date. Dyson alluded to the consensus behind the June date in his comments in the committee hearing for both Senate bills last week. But he didn't say much about the presidential primary's timing. And that portion was left unamended in the version of SB 501 that passed while SB 820 was left in committee. The fact that the leadership was added to the list of sponsors is an interesting pseudo-seal of approval on a measure that will now go to the floor.

The result is that now the Senate version calls for a March primary while the House version -- a version that has passed the chamber already -- endorses an April presidential primary. A few things could happen here. First, SB 820 could emerge from committee and be passed as is and everything is fine. Second, as we saw in Missouri recently, the bill could be amended on the floor to include the April presidential primary date. The third option is that the newly amended SB 501 passes and the two chambers have to figure out how to reconcile the differences on the presidential primary date. Both of the changes bring Maryland into compliance with the national party rules, so that issue is not complicating the matter any.

UPDATE: The Washington Post has more including:

The Senate is expected to amend a similar bill to reflect the provisions of the House version Friday, according to an aide to the Senate president.

The article also says that the House bill passed on Monday. Yeah, it looks that way, and you would probably have to check daily like FHQ does to know this, but the bill passed the House yesterday. The House treated yesterday, March 23, as the March 21 legislative day (see also today's House agenda).

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Much Ado About Nothing in New Mexico

Four years in...

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Much Ado About Nothing in New Mexico

The legislature in New Mexico adjourned for the session last Saturday, and in the process a bill that would have moved the presidential primary in the Land of Enchantment -- and those for state and local offices held concurrently -- died in committee. SB 572 was introduced by Republican state senator, William H. Payne (R-20th, Bernalillo) on February 17, the deadline date for legislation to be introduced. The legislation would have shifted the New Mexico primary from the first Tuesday in June to the first Tuesday in March. However, once the Republican-sponsored bill was introduced in the Democratic-controlled Senate, it was referred to the Senate Rules Committee where it spent the last month of the session.

New Mexico has represented a quirky situation the last two cycles (2004, 2008). Typically, in the post-reform era, New Mexico had brought up the rear with a June primary. Though the primary remained in that position in both 2004 and 2008, a 2003 change to the primary election law allowed the parties to decide how they wanted to allocate delegates for the purposes of nominating a presidential candidate.

New Mexico statutes, Chapter 1, Article 8, Section 54 -- presidential primary, date of election:

In the year in which the president and vice president of the United States are to be elected, the registered voters of this state shall be given an opportunity to express their preference for the person to be the presidential candidate of their party in either a presidential primary election or in accordance with the selection procedure for presidential candidates of each voter's party. The presidential primary election shall be held on the same date as the primary election is held in this state.

That "or in accordance with the selection procedure for presidential candidates of each voter's party" segment of the law allowed the parties to decide where on the calendar to hold their delegate selection event. In both 2004 and in 2008, New Mexico Democrats essentially held a firehouse primary on the first Tuesday in February while Republicans in the state continued to allocate their national convention delegates using the June primary. Senator Payne's bill would have changed that, moving the primary for president and all other offices up to the earliest date on which the national parties are allowing non-exempt states to hold delegate selection events.

Unless the state GOP opts to hold its own earlier contest, it appears that delegate selection in both parties will take place during the first Tuesday in June primary in New Mexico in 2012.

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Four years in...

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Four years in...

FHQ let yesterday come and go without marking the fourth anniversary of the site. Usually we like to keep it business-like around here, but it is worth noting that we've been at this for an entire presidential election cycle now. [Are there other measures of time other than presidential election cycles?] Something that started out on a personal level as a means of collecting data about the formation of the 2008 presidential primary calendar for my dissertation research has grown into a resource for not only the formation of the calendar but for tracking the factors relevant to presidential nomination races.

FHQ has come a long way since that first post (and can probably be faulted for starting well after much of the initial calendar action had taken place in 2007), and has morphed from something that wasn't necessarily intended for public consumption to something that is a tool for academics and journalists alike. I'm proud of that evolution and want to extend a hearty thank you to all who have been readers, loyal or otherwise, over the last four years.

Thanks,

Josh

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Battle Lines Being Drawn in Wisconsin?

More on the Possible Mid-Atlantic Primary

Tennessee Senate Subcommittee Hearings Show Support for Primary Move to March over May

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Battle Lines Being Drawn in Wisconsin?

No, not those battle lines.

The Government Accountability Board in Wisconsin over the last couple of days has telegraphed its desire for different primary dates in the Badger state. At this point, that mostly revolves around changing the date of the September primary for state and local offices in order to comply with the MOVE act to ensure that military personnel overseas receive ballots in a timely manner. However, the issue of the timing of the presidential primary has been broached as well.

Recall that the presidential primary in Wisconsin is currently scheduled for the third Tuesday in February, a date that would be in violation of national party delegate selection rules if it remains unchanged. From the AP on the matter of the presidential primary yesterday:

[Government Accountability Board director Kevin]Kennedy's letter said the staff also considered holding the 2012 presidential primary after March 1 at the recommendation of the national Republican and Democratic parties. The presidential primary is now held on the third Tuesday in February.

Local election officials suggested moving the presidential primary to April during spring non-partisan elections. To save money, they also suggested holding the primary for the spring election during the November general election, starting in 2012.

Kennedy said the board will discuss presidential primary changes later.

Some of that same sentiment carried over into comments made by members of the board today. Moving the date back to April would return the Badger state presidential primary to the position it held in cycles prior to the the 2004 cycle when the primary date was moved forward into February (see 2000 presidential primary calendar). The interesting thing that emerged from the discussion today was that the board was not going to make proposals that would affect the flexibility of the legislature to make a move on the primary. Again from the AP:

[Government Accountability Board elections specialist Katie] Mueller said staff had also looked into changing to the date of the presidential primary election, on the recommendation of the national Democratic and Republican parties. Clerks initially suggested moving the presidential primary to the same day as the spring election. They also suggested holding the spring primary on the same day as the November general election. That idea was scrapped after staff learned the Wisconsin Constitution prohibits holding any judicial elections during a partisan general election.

Mueller said any future proposals made to change the presidential primary dates would not affect the 2012 presidential primary.

The November primary idea hints at a way for the state to save money by combining elections. And it is noteworthy that that discussion was never taken in the direction of combining the presidential with those April local elections like Director Kennedy had mentioned yesterday.

That last line also really requires a touch more explication. It could mean that Wisconsin has no plans to change the date of the primary, keeping it out of compliance with national party rules. That, of course, is something that will be up to the legislature to decide. But that could also mean that the Government Accountability Board won't make a recommendation on moving the 2012 presidential primary and will simply defer to the legislature to make the decision. The Wisconsin legislature can opt to wait, though, considering its session is year-round. It's something to keep an eye on.

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More on the Possible Mid-Atlantic Primary

FHQ is late to this, but we did want to document what happened late last week with the development of the so-called Mid-Atlantic Primary that would coordinate the primaries in Delaware, Maryland and Washington DC. Maryland and DC are moving ahead with plans to shift their respective primaries to the first Tuesday in April, but as of now, despite the mentions of it in press reports on what is happening in both Maryland and DC,¹ Delaware has remained quiet. Now, that doesn't mean that nothing is going on in the First state, but the progress on moving the presidential primary date there is lagging compared to their neighbors to the south.

And really there was no direct mention of either Delaware or DC in the testimony from Linda Lamone from the State Board of Elections last week in the hearings (March 16, 2011) on the state Senate bills before the Education, Health and Environmental Affairs Committee last Wednesday. There was instead talk of coordination with other, unnamed states and an overwhelming sense -- given the comments from the committee -- that the bipartisan support behind the move to April among the Maryland Senate leadership (SB 820) trumped the alternative bill (SB 501) to move the date to the first Tuesday in March. Meanwhile, the state House bill (HB 671) to move the presidential primary to April -- having had a similar hearing the week before -- was reported favorably from the House Ways and Means Committee and is on its way to being voted on soon after a second reading on the floor.

In Washington, the story is similar. An amended version of the introduced bill to change the dates of the presidential primary and that for local primaries in the District as well emerged from committee and received its first reading and vote last Tuesday. The 10-2 vote on the 13 member Council is indicative of the level of support the bill (B19-0090) has on the Council. The bill would now move those primaries to the first Tuesday in April as opposed to the second Tuesday after the first Monday in June.

And now Delaware the nation tuns its lonely eyes to you.

--

¹ From the AP:

Maryland political leaders, including U.S. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, have been coordinating with Delaware and D.C. to hold their presidential primaries on the same day, to gain more national recognition, [Gov. O'Malley's lobbyist, Stacy] Mayer said. No agreement has been reached yet, she said.

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Tennessee Senate Subcommittee Hearings Show Support for Primary Move to March over May

Rare are the instances when reporting is done on committee and subcommittee hearings on the state legislative level. Well, it happens, but not all that often with bills that would move the date on which state-funded presidential primaries are held. That's why it was nice to see some of that type of reporting last week. From no other source do we get a better glimpse at the motivation behind the shifts or potential shifts of primary dates.

In Tennessee Senate subcommittee of the State and Local Government Committee, state senators debated the two possibilities of a new date for the Volunteer state's presidential primary. Both SB 599 and SB 929 are bills that represent the majority party Republicans' desire to move the primary back to the first Tuesday in March. Tom Humphrey from the Knoxville News Sentinel:

Republican [Majority Leader Mark] Norris, who is sponsoring the bill, said it accommodates requests from the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee.

The idea, he said, is to "team up with some other states" to perhaps gain more national attention to the Tennessee primary.

But the Democratic-sponsored bill (SB 1875) would shift the date of the presidential primary back to the first Tuesday in May where it would coincide with municipal elections. Again, Humphrey:

Senate Democratic Leader Jim Kyle of Memphis has a bill, SB1875, which would instead set the presidential primary on the first Tuesday in May. Kyle told the senators he would not oppose the Norris bill, but wanted them to be mindful of the impact of the presidential primary date on local elections.

Most cities and counties set their local primary election dates to coincide with the statewide presidential primary date, since they then avoid having to pay most of the election costs. With a February or March primary, Kyle said, local candidates must file their qualifying petitions in November or December, and some potential challengers to incumbents often do not realize that fact, leaving incumbents with "a free ride."

Notice that Kyle's emphasis is not on the potential cost-savings to the state per se but on the burden on challenging candidates due to such an early (February) presidential primary and the financial burden on unreimbursed local elections officials in the event a municipal election is not held concurrently with the presidential primary.

The Republican bills to move the primary to March are still the odds on favorites to pass the now-unified Republican-controlled government.

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The 2012 Candidates: Pawlenty's In (...exploring mode)

Speaking of Minnesota...

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty took the first formal step toward a run for the Republican presidential nomination next year by announcing the formation of an exploratory committee today. Pawlenty's nascent team has put together a series summer blockbuster trailer-like ads over the last year or so, but the former governor is going to have to find a way to use that and other means of making himself known to potential Republican primary voters.

Four Republicans have now formed exploratory committees. The list:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

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Feb. 7 Minnesota Caucuses with March 6 Results?

That is exactly what the Minnesota Democratic Farm-Labor Party is proposing in the draft of its 2012 delegate selection plan (Section III.A). Ordinarily, FHQ would take a skeptical stance on this plan -- with the skepticism based entirely on the scant chance that the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee would sign off on it. In this instance, though, I think DFLers in Minnesota are likely to "get away" with this. First of all, the Democratic nomination is unlikely to be contested. That in turn means that no one in the media or otherwise is going to be clamoring to find out the results of a contest that is likely to be between President Obama and himself. In other words, there's no news there.

I have had this idea come up in the course of conversations about frontloading in the past: the notion that a state would hold its contest early, but release its results later. It doesn't matter in the least for Democrats in 2012 because the results don't matter, but I wonder how open the Rules and Bylaws Committee will be to opening up that Pandora's box. The idea sounds good in theory, but it also seems like something where states or state actors would or could cheat -- leaking their results -- as an attempt to have some influence over the process. That's a slippery slope. If you're looking for a guide as to how likely this is to pass muster with the RBC, pay attention to Iowa Democrats and to a lesser extent New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner. The extent to which they feel threatened and further whether they act on that threat will determine to some degree how the Rules and Bylaws Committee will come down on this one. [At this point, Minnesota is but one of those worries with Florida being more of a threat at the moment.]

The easy out is for the RBC to punt until the 2016 cycle by allowing Minnesota to implement the plan as outlined. The argument that it won't blunt Iowa and New Hampshire's impact in a year in which the Democratic nomination race is settled is solid. But that doesn't mean that Iowa and New Hampshire won't come out against the idea in relation to the 2012 calendar (but be looking ahead to 2016).

UPDATE: It should also be noted that even though the provision in Minnesota state law placing the caucus on the first Tuesday in February was triggered on March 1, the law could still be changed. Could be. However, with Republicans in control of the Minnesota legislature -- and with a contested nomination race -- that is unlikely. With the Democratic delegate selection rules calling for state legislators to do whatever they can to bring the timing of states' delegate selection events in line with the national party rules, a bill could be proposed but would probably not go anywhere. That could, in turn, be part of the Minnesota DFL's defense of the February 7 date. However, that argument would more than likely prove to be less than effective considering the party pays for the caucuses and has the ability schedule the contest when and where it desires.

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