HB 1355 is on the May 5 calendar in the Senate and should see a vote today.
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Thursday, May 5, 2011
Florida Senate Poised to Create Presidential Preference Primary Date Setting Committee
With time running out on the legislative session (Friday, May 6 is the final day.), the Florida Senate moved Thursday on the House omnibus elections bill that would, among other things, create a committee to select a date for the Sunshine state's presidential primary. HB 1355 was first substituted for the Senate version of the bill (SB 2086) and then weathered a slew of Democratic amendments that sought to remove requirements in the bill it viewed as injurious to voters. To Democratic lawmakers the new law would disproportionately affect minority and college aged voters -- primary portions of the Democratic electorate. For FHQ's purposes, however, the main target of interest in this bill is the new committee which will have until October 1 to schedule a date for the presidential primary.
New Jersey Assembly Committee Set to Examine Moving Presidential Primary Today
From PolitickerNJ:
The Assembly State Government Committee will meet at 2 p.m. to consider legislation (A-3777) sponsored by Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Middlesex) to move New Jersey’s presidential primary election back to June.
This is one of three bills (two in the Assembly and one in the Senate) that would eliminate the separate presidential primary, placing it back in June with the primaries for state and local offices. That had been the traditional date for the presidential primary throughout the post-reform era (1972-present) until the 2008 cycle. It has been estimated that consolidating the two sets of contests would save the Garden state approximately $12 million.
Governor Chris Christie (R) has signalled that he is in favor of the cost-savings. If the bill passes the Democratic-controlled legislature, then, it will likely be signed into law.
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A Typo That Really Needs to Be Fixed
The AP is reporting that the House Committee Substitute to Missouri's SB 282 will move the Show Me state's presidential primary to March. That obviously doesn't jibe with what FHQ has been discussing.
But here's the relevant section from the bill (as has just been passed by the House):
For the record, whoever summarized the bill for the main bill page didn't do the best job. There seems to have been some confusion over the date of the presidential primary (mentions of March are completely excluded) and the primaries for municipal offices (to be held in November). And further for the record, FHQ is also at fault for having missed this discrepancy simply because the HCS version had not been posted when we first reported the November news back in mid-April. No, that's probably not an adequate defense.
In any event, the bill now heads back to the Senate, where it and the House version of the bill (HB 503) both seek to move the primary back to March. So, crisis averted.
From the Missouri Senate's page for SB 282:
The date of the presidential primary is moved from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
But here's the relevant section from the bill (as has just been passed by the House):
Notwithstanding the provisions of subsection 1 of this section, an election for a presidential primary held pursuant to sections [115.755] 115.758 to 115.785 shall be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March of each presidential election year.
For the record, whoever summarized the bill for the main bill page didn't do the best job. There seems to have been some confusion over the date of the presidential primary (mentions of March are completely excluded) and the primaries for municipal offices (to be held in November). And further for the record, FHQ is also at fault for having missed this discrepancy simply because the HCS version had not been posted when we first reported the November news back in mid-April. No, that's probably not an adequate defense.
In any event, the bill now heads back to the Senate, where it and the House version of the bill (HB 503) both seek to move the primary back to March. So, crisis averted.
...unless the Senate balks at that proposed change and maintains the non-compliant status quo -- a first Tuesday after the first Monday in February date.
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Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Missouri Senate Presidential Primary Bill Now Heads Back to the Senate After House Passed with Amendments
The Missouri House today passed the House Committee Substitute to SB 282, the Senate bill initially drafted to shift the Show Me state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. That bill got out of committee in that form but has been on a rollercoaster ride ever since. Let's take a look back:
- The original SB 282 was amended on the floor of the Senate to anchor the state's primary to New Hampshire -- placing the contest a week after the primary in the Granite state -- and subsequently passed.
- The House meanwhile passed its own version of the bill (HB 503) -- moving to March.
- But then the House got the revised Senate bill, turned a 180 on the bill it had just passed and amended the New Hampshire part in committee and changed the primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (presumably in the year before the presidential election).
To say the process in Missouri has been a rollercoaster ride, then, may be an understatement. And that November provision was retained in the final and floor-amended version that passed the House today. Of the five amendments added, none of them pertained to the presidential primary provision in the committee substitute. However, the final amendment does add the first Tuesday in February as an option for public elections -- something the House Committee Substitute removes.
Now the bill heads back to the Senate, where the House bill in its original form is due for floor consideration in the very near future. That bill, it seems, is the only hope of moving the Missouri primary to a compliant date. Governor Jay Nixon (D) would be likely to veto any bill that kept the state in violation of the national party delegate selection rules. Of course, the legislature could override that veto like it did the redistricting plan today, but it isn't clear that a similar winning coalition would be there for such a presidential primary plan.
...and so it continues. SB 282 now heads back to the Senate.
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Tuesday, May 3, 2011
The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (5/3/11)
Washington, DC and Oklahoma are on the move as is the presidential primary calendar.
[Click to Enlarge]
Reading the Map:
As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
- Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
- The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
- Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
- States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.
Reading the Calendar:
- Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
- States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
- The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
- States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.
2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
January 2012
Monday, January 16:
Iowa caucuses1
Tuesday, January 24:
New Hampshire1
Saturday, January 28:
Nevada caucuses1
South Carolina1
A note on the placement of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Tuesday, January 31:
February 2012
Monday, February 6:
Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)
Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):
Arkansas
California (bills: Assembly)
Connecticut (bills: House)
Delaware
Georgia (bills: House)
Illinois
Montana Republican caucuses
New York
Oklahoma
Saturday, February 11:
New Hampshire (based on national party rules)
Virginia
Washington, DC
Saturday, February 18:
Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)
Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)
Tuesday, February 21:
Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)
Wisconsin
Tuesday, February 28:
Arizona3
Michigan4 (bills: House)
South Carolina (based on national party rules)
March 2012
Tuesday, March 6:
Massachusetts4 (bills: House)
Rhode Island
Texas (bills: House)
Vermont
Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)
Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)
Tuesday, March 13:
Colorado caucuses5 (bills: House)
Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)
April 2012
Tuesday, April 3:
Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)
Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)
Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)
Washington Democratic caucuses (-56) (moved: 3/26/11)
Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)
Saturday, April 14:
Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-60) (moved: 3/5/11)
Sunday, April 15:
Alaska Democratic caucuses (-70) (moved: 4/4/11)
Tuesday, April 24:
Pennsylvania
Indiana
North Carolina (bills: Senate)
West Virginia
Tuesday, May 15:
Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)
Nebraska
Arkansas (-107) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)
Idaho
Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)
June 2012
Tuesday, June 5:
Montana (GOP -121) (moved: 6/18/10)
New Mexico6 (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)
North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-121) (moved: 4/21/11)
South Dakota
1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.
2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.
3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
5 The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
6 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.
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The Links (5/3/11): Quick Presidential Primary Hits
From around the country, some presidential primary news:
The Alabama Senate Committee on the Constitution, Campaign Finance, Ethics and Elections unanimously passed HB 425 (5-0) today. The bill could see a vote before the full Senate as early as Thursday.
Washington state Democrats called an audible on the date of their presidential caucuses for next year. What was April 7 is now Sunday, April 15. The Rules and Affirmative Action Committees made the change at a party meeting over the weekend.
One of the New Jersey bills to eliminate the separate presidential primary and move it back to June may actually get a committee vote on Thursday. Of course, Sen. Richard Codey, who pushed the move to February four years ago, is against the move.
Superfluous though it may seem, the Oklahoma House passed the Senate-amended version of HB 1615 (73-15) today. Yes, it moves the presidential primary to March 6 -- something HB 1614 already accomplished -- but the bill also moves the primaries for state and local offices from the last Tuesday in July to the last Tuesday in June, among other things.
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Has the Clock Struck in Arizona on the Timing of the Presidential Primary?
This is Part Four in a series of posts examining early and non-compliant 2012 primary states and why they have not acted to move their presidential primaries to be timed in accordance with national party rules on delegate selection. See Part One (Connecticut), Part Two (Delaware) and Part Three (Utah and Utah Revisited) as well.
Arizona
- Current Primary Date: February 28, 2012
- Legislature Convened: January 10, 2011
- Legislature Adjourned: April 20, 2011
In keeping with the "clock is ticking" theme used in the cases of Connecticut and Delaware...
Now that the Arizona legislature has adjourned without taking action to move the date of the presidential primary, it is probably past time to ask whether the clock has struck midnight in the Grand Canyon state. More to the point, is Arizona's presidential preference election locked in on February 28, 2012? That question deserves a more nuanced answer as opposed to a yes or no (though it is a little bit of both). First of all, technically, no state is ever locked into a date mandated by state law because the state party always has the option of holding its own primary or caucus on a date of its choosing. That happens occasionally, but state parties more often than not opt for the convenience of the state-funded option. And when state parties don't is usually a function of the state-funded primary being too late (ie: Think Idaho Democrats or Montana/West Virginia Republicans in 2008.). In the case of Arizona, however, the mechanisms are in reverse. The state party would have to choose a later date than that provided for by the state in this instance.
That situation, we haven't witnessed. And neither party in Arizona seems prepared -- not at this point anyway -- to move away from the state-funded option and toward a later, party-funded contest. Arizona Democrats would have more motivation to do so because the national party is unlikely to have a contested nomination race and because the date of the primary as it currently stands is not compliant with the DNC's delegate selection rules. That said, the state party's draft delegate selection plan lists the date of the primary as February 28. Republicans, similarly, have not shown any desire through the legislative process -- a means the party controls -- to alter the date of the primary.
The party-funded caucus option, then, seems to be a nonstarter. Absent that and given the lack of legislative action by the Republican majority,1 there is only one other avenue by which the date of the primary can be changed and that is by gubernatorial proclamation. But there are limits to that proclamation power if it is even utilized. Here are the first two (and most relevant) subsections of the Arizona statute concerning the presidential preference election:
16-241. Presidential preference election; conduct of election
A. A presidential preference election shall be held on the fourth Tuesday in February of each year in which the president of the United States is elected to give qualified electors the opportunity to express their preference for the presidential candidate of the political party indicated as their preference by the record of their registration. No other election may appear on the same ballot as the presidential preference election.
B. Notwithstanding subsection A of this section, the governor may issue a proclamation that the presidential preference election is to be held on a date earlier than the fourth Tuesday in February. The proclamation shall be issued no later than one hundred fifty days before the date of the election as set forth in the proclamation. The governor shall transmit a copy of the election proclamation to the clerk of the county boards of supervisors.
Is Arizona locked on February 28? No, but they are locked into a date on or before February 28. The governor has the power to move the primary up, (Remember, there was a resolution at the Arizona GOP's meeting earlier this year to urge Governor Brewer to move the primary up. It ultimately failed.) but not to move it back (see 16-241.B), and that will keep the Grand Canyon state out of compliance with both national parties' sets of delegate selection rules.
But is this really of much consequence? Well, yeah, it is. February 28 is one week before the first week that the parties are allowing all non-exempt states to hold primaries and caucuses (March 6) and is the date that the Democrats have reserved for the South Carolina primary.2 More importantly, February 28 is the date most often discussed as a landing point for the disputed Florida primary as well. Arizona may be able to hold a February 28 primary and not affect the timing of Republican contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. But if they take up the spot Florida Republicans -- in the legislature -- want all to themselves, it may push them to keep the Sunshine state's primary where it is on January 31. Once that domino falls, it bumps Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina into January as well.
As FHQ has argued throughout the year, it only takes one state to unravel the process, but that since Florida is the earliest non-compliant state, it has deflected attention away from other potentially-defiant states. Florida has gotten the bulk of the negative attention for attempting to defy the national parties' rules, but there are other states with primaries scheduled for dates that conflict with the calculus Florida is operating under. Arizona falls into that category.
And now that the state legislature has failed to act to move the date on which the presidential primary is held, Arizona is locked in to February 28 at the latest.
...unless of course the state parties fund later contests. Don't bet on that.
--
1 For the record, Arizona Democrats in the legislature did nothing -- proposing legislation or otherwise -- to change the date of the primary. As a result, the party will face an uphill battle in arguing for a waiver or for the DNC to spare them the 50% delegation reduction that comes with a violation of the timing rules (see 2012 Democratic Delegate Selection Rules, rule 20.C.7). Arguing that the Republicans held unified control of the state government is not a sufficient argument as Florida proved in 2008.
2 Republican delegate selection rules allow the non-exempt states to hold contests at any point throughout February. The states are not assigned an order or a specific date, though the assumption is that Iowa and New Hampshire would go first.
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Colorado House Passes Senate Bill to Move Presidential Nominating Caucuses Up
The Colorado House today passed SB 189. The legislation not only moves the Centennial state's presidential nominating caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in March, but also shifts the primaries for state and local offices from the second Tuesday in August to the last Tuesday in June. The latter provision brings Colorado into compliance with the mandates put in place by the federal MOVE act (It requires states to allow for a 45 day window in which military personnel abroad can vote. There would not have been enough time in Colorado, for instance, to finalize the general election ballot after the August primary and still get the ballots off to those in the military without cutting into that 45 day window.).
The bill has now passed both houses of the General Assembly and heads off to the desk of Governor John Hickenlooper for his consideration.
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Oklahoma to March 6
On May 2, Governor Mary Fallin (R) signed HB 1614, enacting the law to move the Oklahoma presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. The bill also continues to give the State Elections Board the ability to move the primary date if a regional primary involving the Sooner state's neighbors develops and as long as that date is some time on or after the first week in March.
Oklahoma now joins Virginia as another state to have moved its primary to March 6, 2012 during the 2011 state legislative session.
[Click to Enlarge]
Hat tip to Tony Roza at The Green Papers for passing this news along.
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Monday, May 2, 2011
DC to April 3
Slightly contrary to the immediately prior post, Washington DC mayor, Vincent Gray, signed B19-90 on Wednesday, April 27, moving both the presidential primary and the primaries for district-wide offices to the first Tuesday in April. The mayor had acted on Wednesday unbeknownst to FHQ -- and other media outlets -- but the DC Council's web page for the legislation had yet to be updated to reflect that as of Thursday of last week.
DC, then, moves to April 3, 2012.
[Click to Enlarge]
And for the record, we are awaiting gubernatorial action on several other bills across the country, including:
Move to March 6:
Move to April 3:
Give the Secretary of State the power to set the primary date:
Cancel the 2012 Presidential Primary:
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