Shorter Primary Calendars and Unintended Consequences

FHQ heard from Mark Murray at NBC News the other night. He said they were doing a story on the 2016 presidential primary calendar and its potential implications and wanted my take. [Thanks!] I responded with a lot of what has filled the pages here for the last several months: the calendar formation stuff is winding down (calmer than in past cycles), but we're still waiting on the Republican delegate allocation rules at the state level to be layered on top of the calendar order. Also, I briefly discussed some of the quirks covered in our recent three part proportionality rules series -- backdoor winner-take-all contests in the proportionality window and the important distinction between truly winner-take-all contests and everything else after the proportional mandate ends after March 14 (not all states are rushing to change to truly winner-take-all rules).

One thing FHQ did not discuss was the shortened primary calendar the RNC has seemingly successfully manufactured for the 2016 cycle. I did not bring that up because the compressed calendar is likely to speed the process up rather than slow it down, not likely adding to the chaos that some are expecting from the 2016 Republican presidential nomination process. This is something FHQ touched on over at Crystal Ball last month, piggybacking on something that John Sides and I wrote in the days before Rick Santorum suspended his campaign in 2012.

The one line in the First Read piece that troubled me most was this one:

But the unintended consequence of a shortened nominating calendar is that about 70% of the delegates might not be decided until May.

Wait a minute. Kevin Collins had this great tweet a few months ago that was essentially, "so much of social science research boils down to one question: 'compared to what?'" That applies here. Fine, 70% of the delegates might not be decided until May. Compared to what?

Well, first the line -- and I know I'm nitpicking here (That's what I do.) -- is a bit ambiguous. Does it mean that only 70% of the delegates will have been allocated by May or that 70% of delegates will be allocated in May? I think it is the former, but one could make the argument that delegate allocation does not happen until state conventions have formally selected them. Even if that is the case, because of the new binding rules in place in the Republican race in 2016, that formal selection of delegates will have no bearing on how they are allocated/bound to particular candidates.

But let's examine the idea that 70% of the delegates will be allocated by May in 2016. How does that stack up against other cycles? Once the caucuses states more than likely slot into March positions on the calendar, the likely 75% delegates allocated mark will be passed on the last Tuesday in April. That is a full month before the May 22 date on which the 2012 Republican nomination race surpassed the 75% delegates allocated mark; the week before the Texas primary when Romney passed 1144.

Again, that 75% mark will hit a full month earlier in 2016 than it did in 2012. It is counterintuitive to suggest that this will slow things down in 2016, invite more chaos, and lead to a brokered deadlocked convention. All the compressed calendar is, is all the January and February states crowding back into March. Only a few states are actually attempting to move into March from later dates. Texas is the big one of those, but did not really move. The only reason Texas was forced away from the first Tuesday in March date in 2012 was because of unresolved redistricting issues. The primary date shift was forced on the state by the courts.

This may not be the typical Republican presidential nomination cycle, but if history is our guide then things will run their course and have fallen into place somewhere in the window of time between when 50% of the delegates have been allocated and when 75% of the delegates have been allocated -- the 50-75% Rule. That falls roughly between March 8 and April 26.

...before May.

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Colorado Bill to Reestablish Presidential Primary Introduced

On Wednesday, April 29, SB 15-287 was introduced in the Colorado state Senate. The bill would reestablish a presidential primary in the Centennial state for the first time since 2000. The details largely match the description that was leaked last week.

As FHQ said at the time, the interesting news in this is the process being created rather than the switch from a caucuses/convention system to a primary election. Under the provisions of the bill, the Colorado governor would have the power to set the date of the primary in a fairly tight window of time. Before September 1 of the year prior to a presidential election, the governor is called on to set a date for the presidential primary election the following year between:

1. a time NO EARLIER THAN THE DATE THE NATIONAL RULES OF THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES PROVIDE FOR STATE DELEGATIONS TO THE PARTY'S NATIONAL CONVENTION TO BE ALLOCATED WITHOUT PENALTY ...and... 


2. a point on the calendar NOT LATER THAN THE THIRD TUESDAY IN MARCH. 

In 2016, that would mean a small window of time on the calendar from March 1-15. However, the less date-specific front end of that constraint means that, should the national parties in the future allow for an earlier start point to the nomination process, the Colorado window would move with it (without having to return to the legislature for approval). Both that ambiguity and the ceding of the date-setting power to the governor are designed to provide the Colorado presidential primary with a little flexibility; a bit of mobility in the scheduling of the contest.

That a single individual would have the date-setting authority if this bill is passed and signed into law would make Colorado like Arizona was during the 2004-2012 period (when the governor could issue a proclamation to move the primary earlier), but also like New Hampshire and Georgia where the secretary of state holds the power to set the date. Colorado would have less flexibility than Georgia and much less than the carte blanche flexibility New Hampshire's secretary of state has to keep the Granite state presidential primary first.

One additional facet of this bill that should be mentioned is that the aforementioned ambiguity of the front end of the scheduling window does potentially create some uncertainty. Call this the Florida 2013 problem. Recall, that the original law change that brought the Florida presidential primary back into compliance with the national party rules had a similar "earliest point on the calendar in which a delegation won't be penalized" provision. If we were to count only the penalty that both parties levy for going too early, that earliest date a Colorado primary could be would be March 1. Yet, if Colorado Republicans opted for a winner-take-all method of allocation, it would shrink the window down to just March 15.

Fortunately, the last time Colorado Republicans had a primary -- and not non-binding caucuses -- the party allocated their national convention delegates on a proportional basis.

The final take home on this one is that it would transition Colorado from a closed caucuses system to a primary system opened to unaffiliated voters as well. As John Frank reported last week, this is a bipartisan move overall. There are 28 co-sponsors of the legislation across both chambers of the legislature. Two House Democrats join 17 majority Republicans and in the upper chamber where Democrats are in control, six Republicans combine with three Democratic sponsors. That is tilted toward the Republicans, but bipartisan nonetheless. Both parties appear ready to attempt to engage and battle over those unaffiliated voters in higher turnout election that would take place some time during the first half of March.

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Alabama House Committee Favorably Reports SEC Primary Bill

The plan to shift the Alabama presidential primary up a week to March 1 has moved a step closer to reality. The state House Constitution, Campaigns and Elections Committee this week passed SB 240 on to the full body for its consideration.

The state Senate previously passed the measure with only three votes in opposition. And the odds of final passage must seem pretty good. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R) is already hyping the SEC primary. Moving from March 8 up to March 1 would mean Alabama abandoning neighboring Mississippi for other regional partners like Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia as well as Massachusetts, Minnesota and Vermont.

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Washington State Senate Opens Special Session By Sending Presidential Primary Bill Back to the House

After adjourning the regular session last Friday, the Washington state legislature was back at work on Wednesday, April 29, starting a special session mainly focused on lingering budget differences between the divided chambers.

But one other unresolved issue -- among others -- that has some potential impact on the budget for fiscal year 2016 is whether the state will conduct a presidential primary. State Democrats have already committed to a caucuses/convention system for 2016. The question now is whether (and when) Washington will hold a presidential primary in 2016 and whether it is worth the $11.5 million price tag to hold a partially meaningful primary just for Republicans.¹ The Republican-controlled state Senate provided the first move on the matter on the opening day of the special session, passing SB 5978 again -- by a vote of 31-13 -- and sending it back to the Democratic-controlled House for the lower chamber's consideration.

As was the case during the original Senate passage of SB 5978, there were a handful of Democrats who voted with Senate Republicans to hold a presidential primary in 2016 and schedule it for the second Tuesday in March (March 8). But the bigger issue now before the legislature is the budget and the $11.5 million for the presidential primary may serve as a bargaining chip, albeit small in the grand scheme of the budget, as that gets sorted out.


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¹ Washington Republicans in the past have split their delegate allocation nearly evening between the primary (when there is one) and caucuses.

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Minnesota Republicans Considering Skipping Presidential Preference Vote at Next Year's Caucuses?

One of the stories that popped up over the last few months that FHQ thought was a really interesting story -- but just was not getting much national coverage -- is how Minnesota Republicans have been reacting to the new binding rules from the national party. The objective of the Republican National Committee coming out of the Tampa convention and in fact the 2012 presidential nomination process was to cut down on some of the perceived mischief that took place during the process.

One of those perceived problems was the unbound delegate issue that kept arising in one non-binding caucuses state after another. There were two problems that stemmed from those unbound precinct caucuses. First, that the delegates were not bound to candidates meant there was a lack of clarity in the delegate count. But second, it also opened the door to delegates for a candidate who did not win the early stages of the caucuses winning the majority of the delegation at the state convention. The Ron Paul contingent was able to pull this maneuver off in a number of states. 

The lack of clarity and delegates not reflecting the will of the greatest number of caucuses participants at the most participatory/precinct level triggered the rules change, requiring the binding of delegates to candidates based on the results of the earliest statewide election. 

But that change has not been greeted well across all of the country. In fact, in Minnesota, state Republicans have petitioned the RNC for a waiver from the new binding rules. Thus far the RNC has not seemed open to the request. That makes sense. The national party changed the rules and expects states to make the necessary adjustments unless, in the words of the RNC rules. "compliance is impossible". Impossible is a high bar, especially when binding delegates based on the results of statewide precinct caucuses is a matter that is completely within the control of the state party. It would be another matter altogether if state law governed the binding process and the Democratic Party held unified control of the state government. That would be impossible. Binding delegates is not. 

...at least not theoretically. 

But one option on the table for the Minnesota Republican Party if the last ditch effort at a waiver is unsuccessful is to skip the presidential preference vote at the precinct caucuses meetings. No vote, no binding. That would leave the decision on national convention delegates up to the altered state party rules and/or the state convention. As is, the state party rule contradicts the new national party rule.

Minnesota Republican Party bylaws -- Article VI (National Delegates)
No delegate to the Republican National Convention shall be bound by Party rules (unless bound by the State Convention pursuant to the State Party Constitution, Article 5, Section 3D) or by State law to cast his/her vote for a particular candidate on any ballot at the convention.

Rules of the Republican National Committee -- Rule 16(a)(1) (Binding and Allocation)Any statewide presidential preference vote that permits a choice among candidates for the Republican nomination for President of the United States in a primary, caucuses, or a state convention must be used to allocate and bind the state’s delegation to the national convention in either a proportional or winner-take-all manner, except for delegates and alternate delegates who appear on a ballot in a statewide election and are elected directly by primary voters.

What is preventing any issuance of a waiver from the RNC is what is mentioned above (It just is not that difficult to comply.) and the fact that the national party rules trump the state party rules when and if there is a conflict (see Rule 16(b)).

Of course, that is not the only conflict this situation represents. Not holding a presidential preference vote violates Minnesota state law requiring a presidential preference vote at presidential year caucuses as Michael Brodkorb mentions. The one thing that may pull the state party back from the brink of employing a "take my ball and go home" strategy in reaction to forced binding is that some rank-and-file party members like the idea of hardwiring grassroots preferences into the process.

That was kind of the intent of the rules change.

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Hat tip to Mike Taphorn for passing this news on to FHQ.

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Jeb Bush, Puerto Rico and Backdoor Winner-Take-All Delegate Allocation

It is not some mistake that Jeb Bush is in Puerto Rico this week for a fundraiser and town hall meeting.

According to law in the territory, there is to be a primary election next March; on the third Sunday in March unless that date conflicts with Easter or Palm Sunday.¹ In 2016, it does. Instead of being on March 20, then, the Puerto Rico primary will fall on Sunday, March 13; just at the tail end of the proportionality window.

But why would a candidate make the effort to venture into Puerto Rico in April in the year before a presidential nomination race at the prospect of gaining some proportional share of the territory's 23 delegates? The answer is twofold. First, and Lesley Clark at McClatchy raises this, is that there are potential primary and general election ramifications in Florida's Puerto Rican community to making an appearance in and talking about issues important to folks on the island and in the continental United States.

That is true, but there are broader strategic implications at play here as well that piggyback on that Florida-Puerto Rico connection. The Florida primary is scheduled for Tuesday, March 15. Florida Republicans are also talking about a winner-take-all delegate allocation plan. However, it is unclear if those plans include a truly winner-take-all allocation method or the more-often-used (sans national party penalty) winner-take-most allocation. Let's assume here that it is the former (and FHQ thinks it will be).

The Puerto Rico primary is situated just a couple of days earlier, just inside the proportionality window on March 13. If the party utilizes the same type of allocation plan it used in 2012, then it has the potential to be a backdoor winner-take-all contest. There are no congressional districts in Puerto Rico, so there cannot be any differentiation between congressional district delegates and at-large delegates. All 23 are at-large delegates. That has the practical implication of making the Puerto Rico Republican delegate allocation either truly proportional or truly winner-take-all. Given, the date of the primary, it cannot be the latter.

Recall, however, that a party can include certain thresholds in its delegate allocation plan to guide the process (and still meet the proportionality requirements). In 2012, Puerto Rico Republicans required candidates to received at least 15% of the vote to be allocated any delegates, but if one candidate wins a majority of the vote, then that candidate is awarded all 23 delegates. The latter threshold was cleared by Mitt Romney in 2012 when the former Massachusetts governor won nearly 90% of the vote.

That backdoor winner-take-all scenario in Puerto Rico plus a win in winner-take-all Florida (outside the proportionality window) is a significant one-two punch (over 120 delegates). If a candidate can pull that off in what appears to be a protracted race (at that point), that is important. The key here is that there is less difference between a winner-take-most contest and a proportional contest than there is between a winner-take-all primary or caucuses and everything else. Not all states after March 14 are rushing to be winner-take-all. But some are, and if this race keeps going, targeting those winner-take-all states -- as John McCain did in 2008 -- is a big part of the puzzle in the race to 1235.

Jeb Bush is making that play.


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¹ Here is the text of that primary law:

Those primaries to be held pursuant to the provisions of this subtitle shall be held on the third Sunday of March of the year in which the general election is to be held, except if said Sunday is Palm Sunday or Easter Sunday, in which case, the primaries shall be held on the second Sunday of March of the same year. Primaries shall be held on the first Sunday of March if the aforementioned holidays fall on the second and third Sunday. 

In the case of national primaries, these may be held on any date after the first Tuesday of March of the year in which the general election is to be held, up to June fifteenth (15th) of that same year, as determined by the local body of the national party.

The Republican Party in Puerto Rico used the second part of the law as its motivation for setting the date of its 2012 primary, but ended up scheduling it on the date called for in the first part -- the third Sunday in March (March 18, 2012).

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South Carolina Republicans Eyeing February 20 Presidential Primary Date

South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Matt Moore has said the party is likely to hold its 2016 presidential primary on February 20 according to Andrew Shain at The State. Moore went on to provide a tentative timeline for the carve-out states in the Republican presidential nomination process:

Feb. 1: Iowa 

Feb. 9: New Hampshire 

Feb. 20: South Carolina 

Feb. 23: Nevada 

March 1: Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee

The DNC rules call for more specific dates for the first four states, and while the Republican National Committee rules provide no guidance on that question other than the fact that the carve-out states can hold their primaries and caucuses as early as a month before the next earliest contest, there has been some behind the scenes calendar coordination between the RNC and the Republican state parties in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article19816635.html#storylink=cpy

Documents circulated among Nevada Republican Party State Central Committee members prior to their spring meeting this past March included a summary of the work the leadership was and had been doing to prepare for votes on the particulars of the party's 2016 delegate selection process.¹ That summary revealed a similar timeline (see page 6):

Determined to avoid a repeat of 2012, the RNC decided to set a firm schedule early for 2016, and at the end of last summer, the Chairman of the RNC Rules Committee, Bruce Ash from Arizona, reached out to the early states thru [sic] a series of conference calls where the early dates were determined. The goal was to fit all four states within the month of February, with enough time in between each contest to allow the candidates to travel from state to state and campaign.

By tradition, Iowa holds the first caucus in the nation, and New Hampshire holds the first primary. Iowa selected a caucus date of February 2nd for Republicans (Feb 1st for Democrats) and New Hampshire selected February 9th for their primary. South Carolina preferred February 20th for their primary, and Nevada picked the 23rd . Saturday the 27th was not good for anybody because eight states, including Texas and Virginia, planned to hold their contests on “Super Tuesday”, March 1, and nobody wanted to be within four days of eight competing primary elections. Alternative dates available to Nevada were Saturday the 13th or Tuesday the 16th . These days fall on or immediately after the long President’s Day weekend, which also includes Valentine’s Day, so it was felt that turnout could be depressed if we used those dates. When all factors are taken into account, the 23rd made the most sense in terms of getting candidates to Nevada, being able to host events and get them in front of voters.

The only difference between the two is that the earlier Nevada-based timeline had Iowa Republicans holding caucuses just a week before the New Hampshire primary and on a date a day after the Iowa Democratic caucuses. The parties in Iowa tend to conduct their caucuses on the same date, but are not bound to by state law or party bylaw.

This alignment between those two timelines is evidence that the RNC has worked to tamp down on the calendar chaos from 2011. Additionally, the fact that SCGOP Chair Moore revealed that the party's primary "schedule will be formalized in about two weeks" and that he placed North Carolina on March 1 seems to suggest that South Carolina Republicans do not perceive a real threat from its neighbor to the north. In fact, given that South Carolina Democrats are settling in on a February 27 primary, the current North Carolina law -- which does not account for Democratic and Republican primaries in South Carolina on different days -- may turn out to be compliant with the national party rules (a possibility FHQ raised here).

At least one of the bills in the Nevada legislature -- SB 421 -- now calls for the proposed presidential primary in the Silver state to be on the last Tuesday in February. That matches the February 23 date in both timelines.

Overall, the coordinated timeline points toward the potential Colorado and New York problems on February 2 being non-issues or that their movement into compliance is likely in the eyes of the RNC and Republicans in the carve-out states. The gears are already moving in that direction in Colorado.

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The proposed Democratic schedule in February looks like this:

Feb. 1: Iowa 

Feb. 9: New Hampshire 

Feb. 20: Nevada 

Feb. 27: South Carolina

That would have the Nevada Democratic caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary overlapping on February 20.

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¹ The Nevada Republican Party was preparing to vote on the mode of delegate selection (primary or caucuses) and on the binding rules that would govern the delegate allocation process in 2016.

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Both Utah Democrats and Republicans Appear Headed for March 22 Caucuses

Though the date(s) probably have not changed (internally with the state parties), the mode of delegate selection and the timing of those events in Utah seems close to set for 2016. Beehive state Democrats have come to the conclusion that the party will not be able to fund an online presidential primary next year. Utah Republicans are set to make a run at an online option for nomination process but as part of a caucuses/convention process.

With the online presidential primary out, Utah Democrats will now caucus in 2016, and according to Lisa Riley Roche at Deseret News, it looks like both Democrats and Republicans will be caucusing on March 22. That would line both parties' delegate selection events up with the presidential primary in neighboring Arizona. That gives the date a bit of a western flavor on the presidential primary calendar.

But that regional clustering is only one of the draws for the state parties. Republicans in Utah can partner with Arizona, but also be able to continue their tradition of allocating national convention delegates in a truly winner-take-all fashion. Arizona Republicans also have that tradition. Much can and will happen between now and March 22, 2016, but both states together amount to nearly 100 total delegates. If one Republican candidate can win both contests on March 22, that cache of delegates would have some strategic implications. [They would even if there were separate winners of the Arizona and Utah contests.]

On the Democratic side, Utah along with Arizona and Idaho would qualify for a (sub)regional clustering bonus for their respective delegations. March 22 is the earliest date on which at least three regional partnering states would be eligible for that 15% delegate boost.

Both Utah parties, then, have some motivation to schedule their caucuses for March 22.

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Proposed Massachusetts House Budget Includes Money for 2016 Presidential Primary

FHQ is late to this, but after Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker's (R) budget seemed to threaten the 2016 presidential primary in the commonwealth (or at least place it closer to the chopping block), the state House set aside more money for the Elections Division in its version of the budget for fiscal year 2016:

[House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Brian] Dempsey said the House plan would increase spending on elections after state Secretary William Galvin warned Massachusetts would not be able to hold a presidential primary next year under Baker’s budget.

This is not all that surprising. Secretary Galvin made similar ominous projections about the money in the budget for the 2012 presidential primary in 2011. That primary went off without a hitch on the first Tuesday in March as planned.

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Nevada Switch to a Presidential Primary Has 'Quiet' Support from the RNC

Both bills to reestablish a presidential primary in Nevada missed deadlines last week to have passed their originating chamber. The idea of trading out the often-used caucuses in the Silver state for a presidential primary is not dead though. Neither are the bills really. As was the case in Washington, because both presidential primary bills have budgetary ramifications, they may be revived (once amended).

Now, Jon Ralston is reporting that there is support for the presidential primary idea at the RNC:

I'm also reliably told that Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, who was in Las Vegas this weekend at Sheldonfest, is quietly supporting the primary and has made calls. Why quietly? Because Priebus knows how nuts the state party is, I'd guess, and wants this as far away from those folks as possible, but knows he may have to work with them.

Mostly, this is based on the rocky road the Nevada Republican Party presidential caucuses (and all the way through to the state conventions) have traveled since they were indirectly thrust into the carve-out state spotlight prior to the 2008 presidential primary season.¹ That is something FHQ cited yesterday.

The final version of the bill sounds like it will have to merge components of both the Assembly version and the Senate version (at least according to the wish list of those Ralston spoke with). The former has the opt-in provision that will allow Democrats the leeway to continue caucusing², and the latter has the consolidated February primaries provision that will save the expense of two primaries (a presidential primary in February and a primary for non-presidential offices in June).

All that entails some more legislative wrangling before the first of June.


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¹ The DNC first gave Nevada along with South Carolina a privileged status alongside (well, behind) Iowa and New Hampshire in 2006 to diversify the early primary electorate. The Republican National Committee allowed Nevada Republicans to join the fun at the beginning of the primary calendar queue after that.

² Nevada Democrats have expressed some concern that losing the caucuses option might affect the party's privileged status from the DNC. Rule 11 of the 2016 Democratic Party delegate selection rules directly specify the "Nevada first-tier caucuses" when providing guidelines for how the carve-out state contests should be scheduled.

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