The Electoral College Map (9/3/16)

New State Polls (9/3/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
New Hampshire	UNH/WMUR	8/20-8/28	+/- 4.7%	417 likely voters	43	32	5	+11	+5.52

Polling Quick Hits:
There was one late Friday poll out of New Hampshire that failed to get in in time here at FHQ for yesterday's update.


New Hampshire:
UNH has been known to produce some outlier polls, but this August edition of the Granite Poll is fairly consistent with the bulk of the post-convention polling in the state. However, it is a poll that does not seem to be tracking with the narrowing of the national (and other state-level) polls over the last week or two. Still, both candidates are well within the range they have been in in New Hampshire. It just that Clinton is on the high end of her range and Trump is on the low end of his when he has lately been rebounding from the slump he suffered through in the couple of weeks after the conventions.

As it stands though, New Hampshire remains in the Lean Clinton category, more than five points in Clinton's direction.


--
Everything holds steady with the addition of the new UNH poll. New Hampshire remain on the Watch List. The Spectrum and map were unchanged.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	PA-203 (269 | 289)	MO-10 (155)	TN-11 (58)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	NH-43 (273 | 269)	AK-3 (145)	LA-8 (47)
RI-4 (21)	ME-4 (182)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	KS-6 (142)	SD-3 (39)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (187)	OH-18 (320 | 236)	UT-6 (136)	ND-3 (36)
VT-3 (35)	WI-10 (197)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	TX-38 (130)	ID-4 (33)
CA-55 (90)	OR-7 (204)	IA-6 (341 | 203)	IN-11 (92)	NE-5 (29)
NY-29 (119)	MI-16 (220)	NV-6 (347 | 197)	MS-6 (81)	WV-5 (24)
IL-20 (139)	CT-7 (227)	GA-16 (191)	AR-6 (75)	AL-9 (19)
WA-12 (151)	CO-9 (236)	AZ-11 (175)	MT-3 (69)	OK-7 (10)
MN-10 (161)	VA-13 (249)	SC-9 (164)	KY-8 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/31/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/2/16)

New State Polls (9/2/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Iowa	Emerson	8/31-9/1	+/- 3.9%	600 likely voters	39.1	44.2	8.0	+5.1	+1.13
Kansas	Remington	8/22-8/23	+/- 1.55%	3966 likely voters	37	44	9	+7	+7.30
Virginia	Emerson	8/30-9/1	+/- 3.4%	800 likely voters	43.5	43.0	--	+0.5	+6.00

Polling Quick Hits:
Heading into a long Labor Day weekend, there were just a few newly released surveys. Emerson recently came off a summer hiatus and the landline only firm has offered a week's worth of polls that again are either slightly out of step with other recent polling or the beginning signs of a shift. If it is the former, then there is a noticeable Trump-leaning house effect at work. New surveys from both Iowa and Virginia today highlight this issue.


Iowa:
Anything in Iowa not showing a race stuck in a range from about Clinton +3 to Trump +3 has to this point in the  race for the White House been an outlier. The new Emerson poll finds Trump up five points and seemingly fits in that outlier category. But again, it is not far outside of the range; Clinton is on the low end of her Iowa range here and Trump on the upper end of his. That could be a move in Trump's direction or it could be the type of house effect mentioned above. Polling has picked up some in Iowa, but it is among a group of states where more polling would be desirable.

This poll lowered the Iowa average here at FHQ enough to push it past North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum below.


Kansas:
Nearby in Kansas, a new Remington survey provides yet more evidence that the race for the Sunflower state's six electoral votes is just closer than usual in 2016. Kansas is still very much a red state, but Trump continues to lag about 15 points behind where Romney was there in 2012. That closes the gap for Clinton, who is right around Obama 2012, but not enough to make Kansas anything other than a lighter shade of red.


Virginia:
For the second consecutive day a poll was released in Virginia indicating a much closer race than has been the case throughout August. FHQ does not want to explain away either that poll or the new Emerson poll in the Old Dominion. After all, a narrowing nationally would likely mean at least some narrowing in a tangentially competitive Virginia. But the Hampton poll yesterday had a higher of undecideds than has been the case overall. That was true of the last poll they conducted in Virginia as well. That could be not pushing/prompting leaners or something else. But how those leaners break between Clinton and Trump may increase or decrease the margin in the surveys. FHQ will not back track and dip back into the Emerson issues. But the methodology -- landline only -- may be driving what is being witnessed in that series of surveys.

The most onlookers can hope for is additional polling from other firms to aid in determining evidence   as to what the true answer is to what FHQ will call the Emerson question. Both that poll and the Hampton poll pulled the average in Virginia down to six points; just enough to put the state back on the Watch List



--
Compared to yesterday, the map again remains unchanged. However, the Watch List barely adds one state (Virginia). On the Electoral College Spectrum things held steady for the most part. Iowa switched spots with North Carolina, reversing their recent shift.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	PA-203 (269 | 289)	MO-10 (155)	TN-11 (58)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	NH-43 (273 | 269)	AK-3 (145)	LA-8 (47)
RI-4 (21)	ME-4 (182)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	KS-6 (142)	SD-3 (39)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (187)	OH-18 (320 | 236)	UT-6 (136)	ND-3 (36)
VT-3 (35)	WI-10 (197)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	TX-38 (130)	ID-4 (33)
CA-55 (90)	OR-7 (204)	IA-6 (341 | 203)	IN-11 (92)	NE-5 (29)
NY-29 (119)	MI-16 (220)	NV-6 (347 | 197)	MS-6 (81)	WV-5 (24)
IL-20 (139)	CT-7 (227)	GA-16 (191)	AR-6 (75)	AL-9 (19)
WA-12 (151)	CO-9 (236)	AZ-11 (175)	MT-3 (69)	OK-7 (10)
MN-10 (161)	VA-13 (249)	SC-9 (164)	KY-8 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/31/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/30/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)

New State Polls (9/1/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Gravis	8/27	+/- 2.8%	1244 likely voters	40	44	--	+4	--
Arizona	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/28	+/- 3.4%	837 likely voters	43	46	11	+3	+1.50
Missouri	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/27	+/- 3.0%	1055 likely voters	41	47	11	+6	+4.04
New Hampshire	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/28	+/- 3.1%	977 likely voters	46	40	14	+6	+5.14
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/27	+/- 2.9%	1177 likely voters	45	44	12	+1	+1.75
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/27	+/- 2.9%	1134 likely voters	46	42	12	+4	+2.30
Pennsylvania	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/27	+/- 2.8%	1194 likely voters	48	43	9	+5	--
Pennsylvania	Franklin & Marshall	8/25-8/29	+/- 4.6%	736 registered voters	41	38	13	+3	+5.84
Virginia	Hampton	8/24-8/28	+/- 4.7%	801 likely voters	43	41	16	+2	+6.49
West Virginia	Repass Research	8/9-8/28	+/- 4.7%	386 likely voters	31	49	6	+18	+20.99
Wisconsin	Public Policy Polling	8/26-8/27	+/- 3.0%	1054 likely voters	48	41	12	+7	+8.13

Polling Quick Hits:
September dawned with a flood of battleground surveys from Public Policy Polling and assorted other updates in a handful of other states.


Arizona:
The two additions from the Grand Canyon state look a lot like most of the polling -- those not from OH Predictive Insights -- there in the post-convention period throughout August. That is to say that both Gravis and PPP find Trump ahead in the two to four point range. On the weight of those two new surveys, the margin stretches out just enough in Arizona to pull it back off the Watch List. No longer is Arizona on the cusp of jumping over the partisan line into Clinton territory.


Missouri:
Over in fellow Trump toss up Missouri, the story is largely similar to one in Arizona. Most of the post-convention polling in the Show-Me state has had Trump out to a narrow lead in the two to four point range. This latest survey from PPP breaks from that trend, however. Over the last two polls of Missouri -- a couple of head-to-head surveys rather than multi-candidate ones -- the margin has doubled. That was enough to put Missouri back in range of the Toss Up/Lean line and thus back on the Watch List.


New Hampshire:
The first new poll of the Granite state in two weeks show a bit of a contraction of the margin in the state. Gone are the double digit advantages Clinton enjoyed in New Hampshire in the couple of weeks after convention season. In that void is a PPP survey with Clinton holding steady in the same basic mid- to upper 40s range she has been in in New Hampshire. The difference is that Trump's dip into the 30s has given way to the a position around 40 percent where he has often found himself in surveys nationally and in the more competitive states.


North Carolina:
Another day and another minimal margin poll out of North Carolina. There have been eight polls conducted in the Tar Heel state since convention season wrapped up on Philadelphia. Three-quarters of those polls have shown a race within two points. The new PPP survey is right in line with trend. As that Clinton +9 outlier from Marist loses weight and additional tight polls come online, the North Carolina margin here at FHQ continues to shrink. Clinton maintains the advantage, but it is becoming increasingly closer in North Carolina.


Ohio:
In Ohio, the consistency is similar to that seen in North Carolina. The difference, however, is that Clinton's lead in the Buckeye state is more comfortable. That is less clear in the averages here at FHQ, but in the post-convention polling, her edge has been in the four point range. The new PPP poll does not change that.


Pennsylvania:
Like Arizona, there were a couple of new polls out of Pennsylvania added to the FHQ dataset. Trump, perhaps, gets some good news in the multi-candidate survey from Franklin and Marshall -- the margin is down to just three -- but both candidates are around 40 percent. This may be evidence that Clinton is on the decline in the Keystone state, but it is also well under where Clinton has been in recent surveys. There is more out there to suggest -- as in the new PPP survey -- that Clinton is holding relatively steady in the mid-40s while Trump has bounced back from bottoming out during the first half of August. In any event, the margin is down in Pennsylvania and that has drawn the state back onto the Watch List, within a point of the Lean/Toss up line.


Virginia:
Outlier? The new Hampton poll certainly looks like it in light of the majority of post-convention polling in the Old Dominion showing the state potentially moving out of reach for Trump. But like a number of other states discussed in this latest wave of poll releases the closing of the gap is more about Trump pulling back to around 40 percent rather than Clinton entering a free fall. Her share in the poll is low but still on the lower end of her recent range.Virginia is still a Clinton lean at this point.


West Virginia:
A rare update from Repass in West Virginia is about what one would expect. Trump leads in a ruby red state -- and comfortably -- but is running a little more than ten points behind Romney in the Mountain state in 2012. Clinton, on the other hand, is in range of where Obama was four years ago. The end result is still the same: five electoral votes in the Republican nominee's column.


Wisconsin:
After a quiet month for polling in Wisconsin, there has been a flurry of survey activity the last two days. The new PPP survey echoes the two from a day ago. Though the point of comparison is one Marquette poll from right after the convention, the 13 point lead there has more than halved in each of the three late August polls just released. The Badger state remains a solid Clinton lean at this point, but the margin there is slowly shrinking.


--
The map again remains unchanged. However, the Watch List loses one state (Arizona) but adds two more (Missouri and Pennsylvania). On the Electoral College Spectrum things held steady for the most part. West Virginia shifts up a couple of spots but continues to be among the most Republican states.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	PA-203 (269 | 289)	MO-10 (155)	TN-11 (58)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	NH-43 (273 | 269)	AK-3 (145)	LA-8 (47)
RI-4 (21)	ME-4 (182)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	KS-6 (142)	SD-3 (39)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (187)	OH-18 (320 | 236)	UT-6 (136)	ND-3 (36)
VT-3 (35)	WI-10 (197)	IA-6 (326 | 218)	TX-38 (130)	ID-4 (33)
CA-55 (90)	OR-7 (204)	NC-15 (341 | 212)	IN-11 (92)	NE-5 (29)
NY-29 (119)	MI-16 (220)	NV-6 (347 | 197)	MS-6 (81)	WV-5 (24)
IL-20 (139)	CT-7 (227)	GA-16 (191)	AR-6 (75)	AL-9 (19)
WA-12 (151)	CO-9 (236)	AZ-11 (175)	MT-3 (69)	OK-7 (10)
MN-10 (161)	VA-13 (249)	SC-9 (164)	KY-8 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/31/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (8/29/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.