Tuesday, October 4, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/4/16)



New State Polls (10/4/16)1
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Illinois
9/27-10/2
+/- 3.3%
865 likely voters
53.2
28.4
9.5
+24.8
+15.94
Nevada
9/27-10/2
+/- 3.8%
700 likely voters
44
41
4
+3
+0.27
North Carolina
9/27-9/30
+/- 3.81%
660 likely voters
45
39
6
+6
+1.26
Oregon
9/29-10/1
+/- 4.0%
605 likely voters
45
33
11
+12
+10.12
Pennsylvania
9/28-10/2
+/- 6.1%
496 likely voters
47
38
9
+9
--
Pennsylvania
9/30-10/3
+/- 4.9%
402 likely voters
50
40
2
+10
+5.06
Tennessee
9/28-10/2
+/- 5.0%
472 likely voters
38
50
6
+12
+15.22
1Includes latest wave (9/19-10/2) of UPI/CVOTER polls from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.


Polling Quick Hits:
As the lone vice presidential debate looms over the day, there were a handful of new surveys released. The seven polls were for the second consecutive day primarily from states that are tipped toward Clinton at the moment. That leaves a seeming sea of blue across the board with just one red state represented.

Illinois:
Changes (October 4)
StateBeforeAfter
MississippiLean TrumpStrong Trump
PennsylvaniaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton
For most of the year Hillary Clinton has been chasing Obama's 2012 performance in the bluest of states. That has been true in Illinois as well. But in this new poll from the Simon Institute, Clinton is on Obama's heels while Trump lags well behind Romney's pace from four years ago. Of course, overall both candidates are about the same distance apart as their 2012 counterparts were on Election Day.


Nevada:
It was not that long ago that Trump had reeled off a streak of ties or narrow leads in Nevada surveys. However, the first debate seems to have shifted that dynamic in the opposite direction. Clinton has been tied or ahead in every poll that was in the field after the Hofstra debate. The Silver state already flipped back to the Democratic side of the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum, but the Clinton advantage remains quite slight.


North Carolina:
The same Nevada phenomenon has been at work in North Carolina as well, although there was no Trump polling streak in the Tar Heel state heading into the first debate. Instead, leads traded hands. Now, however, Clinton has run off a string of polling edges that, while still narrow for the most part, has established a pretty firm lead of just more than a point. This shift is pretty well exemplified by the shift across Elon polls: a small Trump advantage in mid-September has been displaced by a six point Clinton lead now. And that was change built more on Trump trailing off than Clinton adding to her share of support.


Oregon:
There are a lot of undecideds in the Hoffman Research survey in Oregon. If they all broke toward Trump things might get interesting in the Beaver state. Yet, there has been nothing in the Oregon polling thus far that such an outcome is in the offing. Clinton has been behind Obama 2012 all year in Oregon, but consistently ahead of Trump by a margin right around the Strong/Lean line. The Hoffman poll is consistent with that.


Pennsylvania:
There are hints -- mostly driven by the two new polls today -- that the polling in the Keystone state is  beginning to resemble those from the post-convention period. That is to say that the margins are inching back up toward the double digits. If the more apparent debate effect dissipates any, things are likely to settle back into the five to seven point range again. The average here at FHQ nudged back above the five point (Lean/Toss Up) line on the weight of these two polls, pushing Pennsylvania back into Lean Clinton territory.


Tennessee:
The one spot of red in a batch of blue polls is an MTSU survey of Tennessee. There are not any surprises here. Trump is approaching 50 percent mark in terms of his average share of support in the FHQ graduate weighted averages and that is enough to have him well ahead of Clinton in the Volunteer state.


--
The headline changes today are the category shifts in Mississippi (based on the addition of the UPI surveys) and Pennsylvania. But the electoral vote count remains unchanged and the flips on the Spectrum of a handful of state were no more than a one cell shift. The Watch List, too, remains virtually unchanged. The list of states is the same, but the two states to change categories continue to huddle around the category lines.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(172)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
MD-10
(17)
OR-7
(179)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
RI-4
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
AK-3
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
ME-23
(185)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
MS-6
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MN-10
(195)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
KS-6
(98)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
NM-5
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
IN-11
(92)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
SD-3
(67)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

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Monday, October 3, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)




New State Polls (10/3/16)1
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
9/27-9/29
+/- 4.0%
602 likely voters
44
33
6
+11
--
Colorado
9/29-10/2
+/- 4.9%
400 likely voters
49
38
3
+11
+4.24
Delaware
9/16-9/28
+/- 4.1%
762 likely voters
51
30
9
+11
+13.60
Florida
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.2%
545 likely voters
46
41
5
+5
+2.13
North Carolina
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.4%
507 likely voters
46
43
3
+3
--
North Carolina
9/29-10/2
+/- 3.5%
805 likely voters
46
45
5
+1
+1.14
Ohio
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.4%
497 likely voters
42
47
4
+5
+0.46
Pennsylvania
9/27-10/2
+/- 4.2%
535 likely voters
45
41
6
+4
+4.86
Virginia
9/27-9/30
+/- 3.7%
892 likely voters
42
35
3
+7
+5.73
1Includes latest wave (9/9-9/29) of Ipsos/Reuters polls from the majority of states.


Polling Quick Hits:
The new work week began with nine new surveys from seven states and another wave of the Ipsos/Reuters States of the Nation polls.

Colorado:
Changes (October 3)
StateBeforeAfter
OregonLean ClintonStrong Clinton
Two eleven point leads will tend to catch one's eye any time they pop up among a series of data in a state that had seen its lead contract in recent days. The polling has fluctuated wildly in Colorado, but the bottom line remains the same: Who is above 40 percent. At the moment Clinton is more consistently above that level. That is certainly true in the Monmouth and Keating polls released today.


Delaware:
Delaware has been lightly polled this cycle -- it always is -- and while Clinton leads, she is overall well behind Obama's 2012 mark in the First state. To be clear, Trump lags Romney from four years ago as well, but by about half as much a Clinton relative to Obama. However, this latest poll from the University of Delaware finds a margin similar to that of the final result in the state in 2012. In other words, Delaware is still a blue state.


Florida:
As strange as it is to see it, Quinnipiac, at this point in the race, finds Clinton up five points in Florida and Trump five points ahead in Ohio. Now, there are certainly some unique (to 2016) demographic reasons why that it is, but it is something to see Florida on the Democratic side of Ohio on the Electoral College Spectrum below. That order has tended to be in reverse -- Ohio to the Democratic side of Florida -- during the Obama era and even stretching back to 2004. But both quadrennial battleground states have consistently fallen in this order since before the conventions.

What is noteworthy about the Florida polling during the back half of September is that both candidates have risen into the 40s, but Clinton has more consistently pushed into the mid-40s with Trump just behind in the low to mid-40s. The Q-poll fits that trend.


North Carolina:
Two polls in North Carolina and two narrow Clinton leads. Like Florida, both candidates have clearly established footholds in the 40s; the mark, perhaps, of the most highly contested states (where third party support is flagging to some extent). The race in the Tar Heel state is close, but the trading of narrow leads there has been displaced with a run of Clinton leads in polls in the field after the first debate a week ago. She already held a very small lead there, but this has solidified it.


Ohio:
This is the one spot of red in an otherwise blue day of poll releases. Whereas Florida saw a tied last Quinnipiac survey give way to a five point Clinton advantage now, the Ohio trendline across Q-polls has moved in the opposite direction. A modest Trump edge in the Buckeye state earlier in the month has become a slightly wider lead now. But that shift occurred in the midst of a continued volatile series of surveys in the state. Ohio remains on the Clinton side of the partisan line here at FHQ, but by less than half a point. Only Nevada is closer.


Pennsylvania:
FHQ could dig into the Q-poll from Pennsylvania, but the story is really the same as it has been there: Clinton is ahead and by a margin that continues to hover around the Lean/Toss Up line.

...which is where the last Quinnipiac poll was (and a great many others have been of late).


Virginia:
Finally, in the Old Dominion, yet another survey -- this one from Christopher Newport -- sees Clinton ahead by six to eight points. That has been the established range there both before and after the first debate. Both candidates gained over their positions in the school's poll from last week, but the story is still the same there.


--
The addition of these nine polls plus the Ipsos data did little to fundamentally alter the outlook here at FHQ. The electoral count remains unchanged and only Oregon change categories, pushing to the strong side of the Strong/Lean line. There were some subtle moves on the Electoral College Spectrum, but outside of Delaware and New Jersey, nothing was more than a cell or two in one direction or the other. The Watch List was more active. Notably, Iowa came back on while Maine dropped off. Both shifted in Clinton's direction.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(172)
PA-20
(263)
SC-9
(154)
MT-3
(53)
MD-10
(17)
OR-7
(179)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
TX-38
(145)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
RI-4
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MS-6
(107)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
AK-3
(101)
NE-53
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(195)
OH-18
(334 | 222)
KS-6
(98)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29+13
(116)
NM-5
(200)
NV-6
(340 | 204)
IN-11
(92)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
UT-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16
(181)
SD-3
(67)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10+13
(165)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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