2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: MONTANA

MONTANA

Election type: primary
Date: June 2
Number of delegates: 25 [4 at-large, 2 PLEOs, 13 congressional district, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the sub-district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Montana Democrats and decision makers in the state government did what they have typically done between presidential election cycles: not much. There were no efforts to shift the consolidated Montana primary out of its early June position on the primary calendar and few changes for Democrats to the delegate selection plan.

That changed somewhat once the coronavirus began to reshape the 2020 electoral landscape. This did not lead to any change to the date of the primary, but it did trigger a change to the voting process in the Treasure state. Governor Steve Bullock (D) in late March issued an executive order that allowed counties to decide whether to move toward an all-mail election for June 2. A week later every county had. Each county's elections office still has to remain open to any voters who may prefer or need to vote in-person on election day as part of the governor's proclamation.

But every eligible Montana voter will receive a ballot -- not a form to apply for a ballot -- and not be required to pay postage to return it. Counties will pick up the tab for postage.

[This strays from how absentee voting is usually handled in Montana. Typically, voters have to request a ballot, but that step is being skipped during the coronavirus pandemic.]

All ballots are due to county elections offices on before Tuesday, June 2. That is received and not postmarked by 8pm on June 2. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Montana changed by just two delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates decreased by two and the other two categories of pledged delegates stayed exactly the same as did the number of superdelegates.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Montana's 13 congressional district delegates are split across two districts carved out of the one congressional district state. Those districts have a variation of just two delegates across them from the measure of Democratic strength Montana Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
Eastern district - 6 delegates
Western district - 7 delegates*

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The selection of the 19 pledged delegates in Montana will occur at the June 6 state convention. the 13 district delegates will be selected in two district conventions held as part of the state confab. PLEO delegates will be selected at the state convention by a quorum of district delegates and then state conventions delegates -- selected at June 4 post-primary county conventions -- will then select the four at-large delegates. That process has seemingly not changed. It is unclear as of this writing whether the events scheduled for the state convention will be in-person or virtual. There is no news account nor party press release on any changes and the DNC does not appear to have any further changes (or requests) on file.


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late-June when the Montana statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the early June primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

Puerto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary Now Set for July 12

The Puerto Rico Democratic Party announced on Thursday, May 21 that, in consultation with the Elections Commission in the US territory, it is scheduling its presidential primary election for Sunday, July 12.

Party president Charlie Rodriguez indicated that since Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D) was still fighting for delegates to the national convention, the territorial party was stuck under current Puerto Rico law with the primary election as the means through which delegates would be allocated. Additionally, he cited the recent federal court decisions in New York reinstating the presidential primary there. Both New York and Puerto Rico directly elect district delegates on the primary ballot. As a result, not only would presidential candidates potentially be adversely affected by any cancelation of the primary, but so too would qualifying delegate candidates also on the ballot. And although that may have been the party preference -- to cancel the primary and allocate delegates in a different manner -- it was a bridge too far given a likely court challenge to such a move.

This move had been telegraphed to some extent. As a coda to a series of waiver grants, it was revealed last week during a virtual meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) that Puerto Rico Democrats were considering either July 5 or 12 as the date of their primary. The party obviously chose the latter. And that date -- either date, really -- falls after the June 9 date set aside in DNC rules as the final date on which states can conduct primaries or caucuses. As was noted then during the meeting, Puerto Rico Democrats will have to take the final decision and any other changes to their delegate selection plan before the DNCRBC for the committee's approval.

Like a number of other states, Puerto Rico also played a game of primary calendar musical chairs. The Democratic presidential primary was originally set in 2019 for the final Sunday in March, March 29. But once 2020 rolled around and the coronavirus intervened, the territorial government shifted the primary back a month to April 26. However, that new law also included a contingency plan. If the pandemic and its attendant issues stretched to and beyond that late April date, then the Puerto Rico Democratic Party along with the Elections Commission could choose an alternate date. That led to an indefinitely postponement of the election in early April and set the table for the decision on Thursday for the mid-July date.

Puerto Rico now slots into a space on the primary calendar ahead of only Connecticut's in August. It becomes a seventh contest that will fall after the June 9 deadline.


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The press release from the Puerto Rico Democratic Party on the primary rescheduling will be archived here.


--
The Puerto Rico Democratic presidential primary has been added back to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.


--
Related Posts:
4/3/20: Puerto Rico Democrats Indefinitely Postpone Presidential Primary

3/25/20: Governor Vazquez's Signature Pushes Puerto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary Back a Month

3/19/20: Puerto Rico Legislation Would Shift Presidential Primary Back to April or Beyond

3/16/20: Puerto Rico Democrats Signal Presidential Primary Date Change

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: MARYLAND

MARYLAND

Election type: primary
Date: June 2
    [April 28 originally]
Number of delegates: 119 [21 at-large, 10 PLEOs, 65 congressional district, 23 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)
    [Addendum to plan]


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Unlike the past couple of cycles, Maryland lawmakers made no effort to uproot the presidential primary in the Old Line state from its position on the primary calendar. The late April spot alongside neighboring states Delaware and Pennsylvania survived into the 2020 cycle. As the nomination process formally began and the coronavirus pandemic became a more serious threat to the normal administration of the election, changes were made. In mid-March, Governor Larry Hogan (R) initially shifted the April 28 primary back five weeks to June 2. But then later in March, the Maryland State Board of Elections signaled an all-mail primary before retreating from that stance a bit in April. The Board voted then to hold a predominantly mail-in primary while still allowing for a reduced number of election day voting sites for those unable to vote by mail. Each county will have at least one election day voting location but no more than four.

All eligible Maryland voters will receive a ballot -- not an application for an absentee ballot as in most other states that have made similar changes -- with prepaid postage. Those ballots can then be mailed back to county elections offices or dropped off in person there.

All ballots are due to county elections offices' drop off locations or postmarked on or before Tuesday, June 2. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Maryland changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates increased by one and the other two categories of pledged delegates stayed exactly the same as did the number of superdelegates in the Old Line state.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Maryland's 65 congressional district delegates are split across eight congressional districts and have a variation of just two delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Maryland Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 8 delegates
CD3 - 8 delegates
CD4 - 9 delegates*
CD5 - 9 delegates*
CD6 - 7 delegates*
CD7 - 9 delegates*
CD8 - 8 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The selection of the 65 district delegates in Maryland will occur on the June 2 presidential primary ballot. That process has not changed although the date of the contest has. PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 20 by the state central committee. It is unclear as of this writing whether that meeting will be in-person or virtual.

[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Maryland Democrats had planned to hold a post-primary state central committee meeting on May 30 to select PLEO and then at-large delegates. District delegates will continue to be elected on the primary ballot, but on June 2 instead of April 28.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late-June when the Maryland statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the early June primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: INDIANA

INDIANA

Election type: primary
Date: June 2
    [May 5 originally]
Number of delegates: 89 [18 at-large, 9 PLEOs, 55 congressional district, 7 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Very little changed for Indiana Democrats before the coronavirus pandemic reared its head in the 2020 presidential nomination process. There was no effort to shift the presidential primary from its traditional early May position; a position the state has occupied throughout the post-reform era.

But the pandemic did affect the nature of the state-level process mid-primary season in 2020. On March 20, Indiana Governor Holcomb (R) pushed the May 5 primary back to June 2 via executive order. Less than a week later, the State Elections Commission voted to waive the excuse requirement to vote absentee (by mail), and on May 11 voted again to move to a primarily vote-by-mail election. In-person early voting will be opened to voters from May 26-June 1, but at fewer locations than during a normal election. Additionally, Indiana voters will have until May 21 to request an absentee ballot. Unlike other states, Indiana is not mailing out absentee applications or ballots. The onus is on the voter to request the application, fill it out, return that and have it approved before receiving a ballot that will also have to be mailed back in.

All ballots are due to county elections offices by noon on Tuesday, June 2. That is received and not postmarked by June 2. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Indiana changed by just three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates decreased by one and the other two categories of pledged delegates stayed exactly the same. And the number of superdelegates shrunk by two in the Hoosier state.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Indiana's 55 congressional district delegates are split across nine congressional districts and have a variation of three delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Indiana Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and gubernatorial elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 8 delegates
CD2 - 5 delegates*
CD3 - 5 delegates*
CD4 - 5 delegates*
CD5 - 8 delegates
CD6 - 5 delegates*
CD7 - 8 delegates
CD8 - 5 delegates*
CD9 - 6 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 55 district delegates in Indiana will now be virtually selected by state convention delegates elected on the June 2 primary ballot. Online voting will take place from June 13-17. Ballots will be sorted based on both congressional district and presidential preference. Only Joe Biden-aligned state convention delegates from a particular district, for example, will select the district delegates allocated to Biden in the June 2 primary.

Those district delegate votes will be tabulated on June 18 and then all of the district delegates will convene on June 19 and select the PLEO and then at-large delegates to the national convention.

It is not specified in the May 2 addendum to the Indiana Democratic Party delegate selection plan whether that national convention delegation meeting -- the one where statewide delegates are selected -- will be held virtually or in person. 

It should additionally be noted that the Indiana Democratic Party has also filed a waiver request with the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee to delay the selection process by about a month. Under that proposed revision, ballots to elect district delegates would be mailed to state convention delegates on June 22. Those state convention delegates would then have until July 10 to return those ballots. Results would then be tabulated from July 13-15 and a national convention delegation meeting would then occur on July 16 where a quorum of district delegates would select PLEO and then at-large delegates. Under the waiver, Indiana Democrats would have a bit more time to conduct and finalize the delegate selection process.

[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Indiana Democrats had planned to hold post-primary state convention on June 13 at which district delegates would have been selected. A quorum of those district delegates to the national convention would then have selected PLEO and at-large delegates.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-June when the Indiana statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the early June primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

Appeal Denied. New York Democratic Presidential Primary Set for June 23

The US 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday, May 19 upheld a lower court ruling from earlier in the month reinstating the canceled New York Democratic presidential primary.

The state of New York had appealed the district court decision to reverse the New York State Board of Elections action canceling the primary under a new law that allowed the Board to remove candidates no longer in the race. Following the 2nd circuit ruling, the state will not appeal any further.

And that officially slates the New York Democratic presidential primary for June 23, a date just five weeks away.

Candidates both for president and district delegate had already filed for the April 28 primary ballot, so none of the state government nor judicial decisions have had any demonstrable impact on the filing process. Nor does the decision today affect the selection process for those district delegates. They will continue to be elected directly from the primary ballot. However, the date of the state convention and the selection of statewide -- at-large and PLEO -- delegates has been affected in the move to June. The State Democratic Committee will now select those delegates -- based on the statewide results of the primary -- at the late July state convention.

And two other factors will affect the administration of the election. First, the delay in finalizing the date of the New York primary did no favors to the State Board of Elections. Sure, the Board held that up with the appeal, but it also delayed finalizing the ballot for the primary election itself. And under the federal UOCAVA law, ballots are to go out to military and other personnel overseas 45 days before any election. There are workarounds for that -- counting the ballots when they come in, for example -- but a delay is a delay and can influence the implementation of election law.

Additionally, Governor Cuomo's April 24 executive order to provide absentee ballot applications (with a postage paid return option) to all eligible New York voters for the primary must be rolled out in the 35 day window remaining. The details of that process will have to be finalized as well, particularly the return of the completed ballots and whether that is mail-only for voters or if they can physically drop them off with election administrators.


--
One other matter to note is that the New York Democratic Party has amended its delegate selection plan to reflect not only the date change for the primary, but the allocation of delegates. Now, this point is moot at this time given that the primary is back on, but the language of Part 2, Section A of the delegate selection plan lays out the conditions under which the process would operate if the primary were canceled. Originally (and traditionally), the plan has called for all of the delegates to be allocated to the one candidate who has qualified for the primary ballot. That remains the case, but with a slight tweak. As a rider on that provision another is included: "or at the discretion of such Candidate." That addition was seemingly made in response to the deal struck between the Biden and Sanders campaigns to not only allow Sanders to keep his statewide delegates but to get a share of New York delegates if the primary ultimately ended up canceled. It is not and thus that provision is unnecessary. Still, there was a notable change to the language of the rules.


--
Related Posts:
On-Again, Off-Again New York Democratic Presidential Primary is Back on Again

Cuomo Executive Order Confirms New York Presidential Primary Will Move to June 23

New York State Legislature Begins Working on Alternatives to April 28 Presidential Primary

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: HAWAII

HAWAII

Election type: primary
Date: May 22
    [April 4 originally]
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 15 congressional district, 9 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan (pre-coronavirus)


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Hawaii Democrats pretty substantially altered their delegate selection process for 2020. Although the state legislature failed in 2018 to create a state government-run presidential primary, the state party in 2019 made the move toward a party-run primary in the wake of new DNC encouragements for increased participation in the presidential nomination process. That party-run primary was to combine both in-person and mail-in voting and a ranked choice ballot.

However, the coronavirus, as in other states, disrupted the state party's initial plans. First, Hawaii Democrats chose to eliminate in-person voting in the originally scheduled April 4 primary. Then, days later, the party moved the date on which mail-in ballots were due to May 22 to allow a bit more time for additional voters to register and for a third round of ballot mailing to occur in early May.

All ballots are due to state party offices by Friday, May 22. That is received and not postmarked by May 22. Since the state party offices are closed due to the coronavirus, there is no option to drop off completed ballots. They must be mailed and received by May 22. No specific deadline time is given.

[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]

Overall, there were significant changes to the way in which Hawaii Democrats planned to run their delegate selection process for the 2020 cycle. Yet, the Democratic delegation in Hawaii changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of district delegates decreased by one and the other two two categories of pledged delegates stayed exactly the same. So, too, did the number of superdelegates in the Aloha state. The nature of the bonus Hawaii Democrats qualified for in 2020 changed. A 15 percent clustering bonus from 2016 was replaced by a 20 percent timing bonus in 2020. The increased bonus masks some small changes to the base delegation in Hawaii for 2020 from 2016.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Hawaii's 15 congressional district delegates are split across two congressional districts and have a variation of just one delegate across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Hawaii Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 8 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 15 Hawaii district delegates will be selected by state convention delegates selected in March 4 precinct meetings. However, those state convention delegates will not make those selections at the state convention as planned. Instead, an online voting system will help facilitate a voting window from June 5-8. The state party will distribute voting instructions to delegates on June 5 and provide a deadline of June for their return. The Hawaii Democratic Party State Central Committee meeting at which PLEO and at-large delegates were to have been selected had been pushed to a video/teleconference call that will fall on June 13. In neither case has the group of selectors changed, but the date and meeting format have.

[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Hawaii Democrats had planned to hold post-primary state convention on May 23 at which district delegates would have been selected. Likewise, a May 24 state central committee meeting was to have selected PLEO and at-large delegates. Both of those in-person gatherings were eliminated in a revised delegate selection plan that received approval from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on April 1.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in June when the Hawaii statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

When Will Biden Clinch? It Depends.

Any guess on what date he pushes it over the finish line, @FHQ? My guess is Georgia and West Virginia on June 9th.

— Matt Cypher (@MLCypher) May 15, 2020

There is certainly an argument out there that Biden wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination back on April 8 -- the day after the Wisconsin primary -- when Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign. The former vice president shifted from being the presumptive presumptive nominee to the presumptive nominee then.

And an argument can be made that the trajectory of Biden's delegate math made that obvious on many of the Tuesdays throughout March. But trajectory is one thing as is the fact that all of the remaining viable candidates other than Biden pulled out of the race for the Democratic nomination. However, crossing over the requisite 1991 pledged delegates to become the nominee is another thing altogether. As of now, Biden is just shy of 1500 delegates and needs around 38 percent of the delegates available in the remaining states with contests to surpass that threshold. Given how the primaries and caucuses have gone since Sanders dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden, that will not prove to be too heavy a lift.

But when will Biden hit and pass 1991?

It depends.

One thing that can be said is that it will not be in May. There are just two more contests -- Oregon and Hawaii next week -- and just 95 delegates to be allocated before the end of the month. June 2 offers both more contests and 479 more delegates. But even then, it would be a bit of a stretch for Biden to get to 1991 by then.

Again, it depends. If one looks at the contests that there are results for since April 8 when Sanders suspended his campaign -- Alaska, Wyoming, Ohio, Kansas and Nebraska -- they paint a certain picture, one where Biden gets almost 74 percent of the qualified vote on average. And if Biden receives around three-quarters of the delegates in future primaries and caucuses, then he will just barely eclipse the 1991 delegate barrier on June 9 when Georgia and West Virginia hold primaries.

Yet, that is something of a rough estimate. It assumes that congressional district delegate allocation will mirror statewide delegate allocation and that may or may not be the case. But that potential variation across congressional districts may end up pushing Biden's magic number clinching point deeper into the delayed primary calendar.

Another variable that may influence when that point occurs is the nature of the small sample of contests that have happened since Sanders's exit from the race. Three of those five contests were in party-run primary or caucus states (Alaska, Wyoming and Kansas). No, that party-run part does not matter to the math going forward, but that all three used ranked-choice voting does. The redistribution of votes in those contests inflates the qualified share of support that both Biden and Sanders received. As a result, the average qualified share used in arriving at the June 9 target date for clinching cited above may be a bit more generous to Sanders than to Biden. After all, much of the voting in the April 10 Alaska party-run primary took place by mail before Sanders dropped out on April 8. The 45 percent Sanders received may not exactly be representative of the share he has gotten and will get in future contests.

If one looks at the other two contests -- Ohio and Nebraska -- then it is clear that Sanders is very much flirting with the threshold to qualify for delegates. And if Nebraska is the new normal -- a state where Sanders failed to qualify for delegates either statewide or in any of the three congressional districts -- then that would speed up Biden's journey to 1991. Were Biden to receive all of the delegates available -- assuming he is the only candidate qualifying for delegates -- then he would easily surpass 1991 on Super Junesday, June 2.

But how the allocation goes between now and the end of primary season will likely be something in between those two extremes: 1) Sanders receiving about a quarter of the qualified vote and 2) Biden being the only qualifying candidate. Of course, there are not that many contests nor delegates at stake between June 2 and June 9. The caucuses in the Virgin Islands fall on June 6, but there are just seven delegates on the line there.

Look, the bottom line is the one where this discussion started: Biden will be the nominee. The question is when he more officially becomes the presumptive nominee in the delegate count. The above is a rough guide. One thing that can be said is that even if one follows the Sanders-generous extreme above -- the one where the Vermont senator receives about a quarter of the delegates -- then Biden will by the end of primary season have enough pledged delegates in his column to allow superdelegates participate on the first ballot roll call vote at the national convention. That is, of course, assuming the current rules remain the same when the convention Rules Committee adopts rules for the convention.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: OREGON

OREGON

Election type: primary
Date: May 19
Number of delegates: 73 [13 at-large, 7 PLEOs, 41 congressional district, 12 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Oregon Democrats saw very few changes from 2016 to 2020. There were several bills that were introduced in 2018 in the state legislature to change the date of the presidential primary, shifting it into March in all three cases. But for the sixth straight cycle, the Oregon primary remained in mid-May.

The date stayed the same and the administration of the election by the state government remained vote-by-mail. That insulated Oregon Democrats from changes to the delegate allocation process in the face of the coronavirus. There was no need to eliminate in-person voting in Oregon where there was in other states.

All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (PT) Tuesday, May 19. That is received and not postmarked by May 19. Voters who complete their ballots after the Wednesday before the election are encouraged to drop the ballot off rather than mail it. 

[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Oregon changed by just one delegate from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates in all three categories stayed exactly the same, and the delegation gained one superdelegate.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Oregon's 41 congressional district delegates are split across five congressional districts and have a variation of six delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Oregon Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 gubernatorial election in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 9 delegates*
CD2 - 6 delegates
CD3 - 12 delegates
CD4 - 7 delegates*
CD5 - 7 delegates*

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
All 65 Oregon pledged delegates will be selected in a new vote-by-mail system open to all registered Oregon Democrats. Those Oregon Democrats can apply online by May 21 in order to receive ballot instructions on May 27. And participation means either voting for delegate candidates or running for district, at-large or PLEO delegate positions. All three categories of delegates will be elected through the same system. Ballots will be due by June 12.

[Initially, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Oregon Democrats had planned to hold post-primary district caucuses on June 6 and a state convention on June 20. The former would have selected the 41 district delegates while the latter would have been charged with choosing the 20 statewide (at-large and PLEO) delegates. Those in-person gatherings were eliminated in a revised delegate selection plan that received approval from the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 4.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Oregon statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Moves Toward Taking the National Convention Virtual

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) met via conference call on Tuesday, May 12 to consider a number of issues raised by coronavirus pandemic.

Most of the actions taken had been telegraphed before the meeting, but there remained some interesting questions brought up during the meeting in response to some of the agenda items. The easiest hurdles to clear came from state parties' reactions to the public health crisis and its impact on the electoral and delegate selection processes there.

Several states have moved since mid-March to points on the primary calendar beyond what is allowed under DNC rules. Decision makers in Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York all settled on dates beyond the June 9 cut off established in the rules.¹ And all of those states but Connecticut had waiver requests before the RBC today. All were unanimously approved.

Beyond that thumbs up on the state-level changes before them today, RBC co-chair, Jim Roosevelt, also revealed that the delegate apportionment to states would remain the same. States will not receive any further bonus delegates for moves to later dates on the calendar, and as of now, the above states either have received waivers that allows them to skirt any penalties from rules violations or are in discussions with the RBC about their respective situations. Connecticut Democrats fall into the latter category and are between a rock and a hard place with the August 11 primary date state government decision makers landed on falling just a few days before the convention is set to start. That is another state party that will eventually have to bring delegate selection plan changes before the RBC in the near future. Puerto Rico Democrats face the same dilemma. The primary in the US territory was indefinitely postponed in April but the party is eyeing a July 5 or 12 primary date that would also require a waiver from the RBC.

But the bigger items on the RBC's agenda dealt with the national convention. The committee unanimously passed resolutions to allow state parties to use virtual means to complete their delegate selection processes as long as that did not include primaries or precinct caucuses. Then, however, the body moved on to a more encompassing resolution on convention procedure. There were a couple of main aims that the the RBC was targeting. First, given the public health crisis, the RBC members were concerned with the safety of delegates able to attend the convention in Milwaukee but also the citizens of the city as well. But second, the committee also sought to conduct the business of the convention under the circumstances that the coronavirus has created. Both meant that the RBC had to make changes to the rules where there is no contingency for such conditions.

The resolution attempts to address those twin issues. Procedurally, it allows the convention Rules and Credentials Committees to be the sole arbiters of their respective reports. They will not go before the full convention unless there is a minority report issued as well. That provision did raise some concerns with several members of the committee who were concerned about that (minority report) outlet and what would constitute a passing vote in the committee or on the floor. Would it be a simple majority of those present or a majority of all of the total number of delegates? The distinction matters, especially in the context of a convention that may see some delegates in person in an arena in Milwaukee and some at home. The tentative conclusion was that at past conventions, it had been the simple majority.

And while all of that may get too far into the weeds of convention process, it does matter. More broadly, the resolution also granted the DNC the flexibility to allow the participation of some delegates from afar.

That measure unanimously passed the RBC but has to go before the full DNC for approval before it takes effect.


--
¹ New York Democrats are in limbo to some extent with their primary. The decision to reinstate the June 23 Democratic presidential primary in the Empire state is being appealed to the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals, and any changes made in the wake of that decision could push the New York Democratic Party back before the RBC in the coming days if any cancelation forces further changes to the amended delegate selection plan.

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: NEBRASKA

NEBRASKA

Election type: primary
Date: May 12
Number of delegates: 33 [6 at-large, 3 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 4 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional caucuses
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Unlike some states where most of the changes from 2016 to 2020 occurred because of the coronavirus in 2020, Nebraska Democrats saw changes to their delegate selection on both sides of the pandemic. The biggest pre-coronavirus changes instituted were in response to the Democratic National Committee rules changes encouraging increased participation in the delegate selection process. In December 2018, Nebraska Democrats opted to shift from the caucuses the party had used from 2008-2016 to the state-run primary. That not only changed the format for participation but also had the effect pushing the date of the Nebraska Democratic delegate selection event back by more than two months.

After the coronavirus pandemic turned the 2020 presidential nomination process upside down, the initial reaction from the state government was to mail early/absentee voting applications to all eligible Nebraska voters. But that late March decision was followed by another executive order that canceled all in-person voting in the May 12 primary.

All ballots are due to county elections offices by 8pm (CT) Tuesday, May 12. That is received and not postmarked by May 12. 

[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]

Overall, the Democratic delegation in Nebraska changed by three delegates from 2016 to 2020. The number of pledged delegates increased by four (three district delegates and one at-large delegate), but lost one superdelegate. The majority of the increase to the delegation was based on the later contest. That move from March in 2016 to May in 2020 qualified the state party for bonus delegates.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Nebraska's 20 congressional district delegates are split across three congressional districts and have a variation of five delegates across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Nebraska Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 7 delegates*
CD2 - 9 delegates*
CD3 - 4 delegates

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The 20 Nebraska district delegates will be selected by district caucuses (subdivided by presidential preference) at the virtual state convention on June 13 via phone/video conference. That is a week later than the in-person state convention had been planned prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Post-primary virtual county conventions that feed into the district and state conventions will be held May 17-31. That, too, is marginally later than was originally planned. In-person county conventions were initially slated to fall in a May 14-24 window. Smaller Nebraska counties -- those with fewer than 50,000 residents -- will conduct their teleconference conventions from May 17-24 while the four largest counties in the Cornhusker state will distribute paper ballots on May 17 to be returned to the state party by May 27. Virtual conventions will follow in those largest counties on May 30-31.

The PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected on June 14 at and by the virtual state convention based on the statewide results in the primary. Again, the May county conventions choose delegates to attend the virtual state convention.


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid June when the Nebraska statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the May party-run primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.