The Electoral College Map (6/23/20)

Update for June 23.

Election day is just 19 weeks away, and the state of the presidential race through the broad lens of the Electoral College looks like it did a week ago when these updates debuted. The state-level polls through the FHQ graduated weighted average continues to show an electoral vote tally favoring former Vice President Joe Biden. And neither the steady trickle of survey releases over the last week nor today's new Texas poll have done anything to change that.

Under the surface there have been some changes, but there just has not been enough polling to significantly alter the course of the race. Florida became and has stayed the tipping point state and Minnesota, on the weight of one new poll (and likely an outlier at that), shifted from a Biden Toss Up to a Strong Biden state.

That is really it in the first week of these projections updates. It is not that any of that is without consequence, it is just that those consequences have been fairly limited at the outset.

Polling quick hits:
Texas:
Public Policy Polling has now surveyed the Lone Star state twice this month, and those are the only two polls conducted in Texas completely within the month of June. The earlier poll found the race between Biden and President Donald Trump tied, but Biden's support has trailed off some in the state since then while Trump has held steady. And if one includes the PPP survey in Texas from April, then there is a bit of a pattern: the race has moved from a one point Biden edge in late April to a deadlock in early June to a two point Trump advantage as the month nears its end. Yes, that could just as easily be statistical noise across a group of surveys from one pollster, but it also may not be.

The bottom line through all of the Texas polling in 2020 to this point is that Trump enjoys a lead, but a consistently small one. This latest PPP survey overlays pretty cleanly on top of where the FHQ average has the race in the Lone Star state: basically Trump +2. Although, the poll has both candidates running a little less than a point ahead of their average shares of support.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	KY-8 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	ND-3 (22)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NH-4 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

But this was one of those polls that maintains the status quo. Any survey that comes in essentially mimicking the average -- weighted or not -- will tend to do that. Needless to say, then, the Texas poll did little to shake things up here at FHQ. Texas stays in the group of Trump Toss Ups kept its spot at the bottom of the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum. But the poll did ever so slightly nudge the average margin there up to nearly two points. Texas remains a state much closer than it has been in many cycles of the recent past, but still one that is lodged in the Republican column for now.

And if Texas is a state that is (and stays) close, then that is troubling sign for Trump and his reelection hopes. To have to expend resources defending Texas -- should it come to that -- is going to make it that much harder to go on offense in states the president carried four years ago. And there are actually quite a few states shaded in light blue above where the president's campaign will have to play defense and not offense. Six of the eight states in the Biden toss up category were Trump states in 2016.

But again, there are 19 weeks to go in this race and much can and will happen. The map may not stay this way throughout.

**There were no changes to either the tipping point state (Florida) above on the Spectrum or to the Watch List below. The new Texas poll moved the Lone Star state away from its most proximate category change. It was and is closer to becoming a Biden toss up rather than Lean Trump state at this point.

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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/19/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/22/20)

Update for June 22.

After polling releases took a day off on Father's Day, a couple of new surveys greeted the start of the work week on Monday. Both strayed a bit -- and in different directions -- from the collective picture assembled from recent polling across the country. Neither, however, fundamentally altered the outlook either on the state level or in the tally of electoral votes for Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

Polling quick hits:
Alabama:
States with competitive Senate races in 2020 get not only Senate polls, but tend to churn out a steady stream of presidential race data as well. And that happens whether the presidential race is close or not. Think of all those Brown-Warren polls of Massachusetts from 2012 that nonetheless continually showed Obama well ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in the presidential race. That is what is likely to happen in Alabama this year with Doug Jones representing the one Democratic-held seat most likely to flip in November. Any polls that come out will no doubt also have a test of the presidential trial heat as well and all a very likely to show a healthy lead for Trump.

That said, the internal statewide poll of Alabama from the Jones campaign found a presidential race within 15 points, a margin that passes for "close" in Alabama. But in all honesty, Alabama is not going to be a state that is going to be much closer than that or even anything other than ruby red in November. Nevertheless, the survey finds Biden under 40 points but running five points ahead of Hillary Clinton's pace set in the 2016 race in the Yellowhammer state. But the eye-opening number in this poll -- and again it is an internal Democratic poll -- is that Trump is barely cracking the 50 percent mark in the state, a nearly 10 point decline from the share of support he enjoyed in Alabama in 2016. If Trump is only garnering 53 percent in Alabama in November, then there are a lot of states that were red in 2016 turning blue in 2020.

The race in Alabama is unlikely to get to that point unless there is a significant cratering of Trump support. That does not seem all that probable.


Michigan:
While Alabama may be one of those uncompetitive states to get at least regular updates in the presidential race throughout the campaign, that is not a worry in Michigan, the most surveyed state in 2020. After a few recent polls found Biden up double digits in the Wolverine state, the last two surveys have shown a much tighter race. The latest is from Trafalgar Group with Biden up only one point.

However, the answer (or the margin really), as FHQ often says, is probably somewhere in the middle of those two sets of polls. And the FHQ graduated weighted average in Michigan is certainly there, placing the state firmly in the Lean Biden category. Does that make this poll an outlier? Well, both candidates are running behind their parties' share of support in the state in 2016. And that is not exactly a finding consistent with the 7 plus point average shift toward the Democrats that has been borne out of the 2020 polls to this point here at FHQ. It also does not jibe with overall trend that we have seen: Biden running ahead of 2016 and Trump running behind. The opposite is true here.

Come to your own conclusion on whether that constitutes an outlier. Yet, one thing is clear, Michigan remained a Biden state with a roughly 6.5 point lead on average.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	KY-8 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	ND-3 (22)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NH-4 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

No, neither poll did much to shake things up too much. The Alabama poll did draw in the margin there and pushed it four cells toward the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum above. But the state remains in the far right column, deep in the coalition of Trump states. Michigan, despite the tight margin in the Trafalgar poll, did not budge on the Spectrum and the gap did not close enough to bring the average much closer to pushing Michigan onto the Watch List below.

Florida retains its position as the tipping point state and Montana, even without a new survey, slipped off the Watch List. The decay of older polls nudged the margin there below 9 points in favor of Trump, but kept the Treasure state on the upper end of the Lean Trump states.

But with 134 days until the election, the Electoral College stuck at Biden 352, Trump 186.

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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

The Electoral College Map (6/20/20)

Update for June 20.

Changes (June 20)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Toss Up Biden	Strong Biden

Ask and ye shall receive, I suppose.

Yesterday a new survey of underpolled New Hampshire was added into the FHQ state polling dataset and today Minnesota got an update to the state of the presidential race as well. For two blue states that finished 2016 with Clinton and Trump basically within a point or less of each other, Minnesota and New Hampshire are -- or have been -- polled entirely to sporadically during 2020. That still basically remains the case. Both are still woefully underpolled and that has been especially true during this April-June period when Biden's advantage in the surveys out there -- both nationally and at the state level -- has widened. The picture seemed somewhat incomplete with both states shaded in toss up light blue while others around them on the Electoral College Spectrum (below) saw the gap between Biden and Trump increase.

That was true when new data was added for New Hampshire a day ago and is even more true for Minnesota today.

Polling quick hits:
Minnesota:
Gravis Marketing surveyed the Land of 10,000 Lakes on June 19 and found Biden to have a significant advantage there. When the initial question -- Biden or Trump? -- was augmented by pushed responses from undecideds on a follow up, Biden ended up with a 58-42 advantage. That was not much of a departure from the Mason-Dixon poll of the state in May when Trump pulled in a 44 percent share of support. But Biden's comparative number there shot up nearly ten points between the two polls (admittedly from two different pollsters).

But that 16 point margin grabs one's attention, especially when the only other 2020 poll out of the state showed a far more modest Biden lead. It is reminiscent of the recent polling from nearby Michigan. Yes, the Wolverine state has been polled far more than Minnesota, but both ended 2016 in a dead heat between Clinton and Trump. If margin in Michigan has stretched out from that near tie, then Minnesota likely has as well.

Nonetheless, the gap feels a bit wider than the true margin likely is in Minnesota right now. What would help clear that up? Yeah, you guessed it: some more survey work.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NH-4 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

What the Gravis survey of Minnesota leaves one with here at FHQ though is this: Minnesota shifts sharply toward Biden in the average, pushing out of toss up territory and all the way in the Strong Biden category. Biden's lead in Minnesota in the FHQ graduated weighted average is just a smidge over 11 points. So it is not an edge that is well into that Strong category, but it is there. That is engouh to shift Minnesota six spots on the Electoral College Spectrum (above), far deeper into the Biden coalition of states.

It was also enough to pull the state off the Watch List (below), but only just barely.

With only one new poll to add into the mix, there are only so many changes that can stem from that. And while there were some across the board in FHQ's graphics in this space, it did little to change the overall picture. Biden maintains a 352-186 lead in the electoral college projection and Florida remains the state at the tipping point in the equation. The thing for Biden now is that he claims six states beyond that tipping point and that is a nice cushion to have now or any time. But it is just June and there is still a campaign to be contested, one that Trump reenters to some extent with a rally in Oklahoma this evening.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

The Electoral College Map (6/19/20)

Update for June 19.

With 137 days until Election Day, the work week closed with a couple of new polls added to the mix in FHQ's graduated weighted averages of state-level polls in the 2020 presidential election race. It is difficult to call that a trickle when it is indicative a fairly light period of polling in the race. That will certainly change as November approaches. But for now, it is the information that is out there.

Polling quick hits:
New Hampshire:
FHQ spent the first week rolling out these electoral college updates bemoaning the fact that there was a lack of polling in a handful of states where some new data would likely prove helpful. New Hampshire was among them. And fortunately St. Anselm answered the call and not only added that data, but also clarified the picture of things in the Granite state. Well, clarified things in the Granite state relative to other states around which New Hampshire has ended up in past cycles after the dust settled following the election. And that movement is consistent with other states during this current period of the campaign: the margin in a state that favored Biden before the separate coronavirus and protests shocks has widened.

But to be clear, within pollster changes -- from one St. Anselm poll to the next -- actually saw something of a contraction in the margin. Trump's share of support remained static while Biden lost a point since the April poll. But while that was a status quo-maintaining result, it had the effect of broadening the gap between Biden and Trump in the FHQ averages in the state. Meaningfully, it pushed New Hampshire closer to "Lean Biden" territory. Granted, the bottom line is still that there has not been a great deal of polling in the Granite state in 2020. The new data helps, but more of it from a more widely dispersed group of pollsters would help more.

North Carolina:
Having logged all the calendar year 2020 state polls in a dataset over the past weekend, FHQ must confess that there were not a whole lot of Gravis polls among them. If memory serves, this may be the first state poll the firm has rolled out this year. Regardless, the new poll from the Florida-based pollster finds Trump ahead by three. However, Trump was right in that 45-47 percent range where he has more often than not been in the Tar Heel state all year. The divergent part of this survey was the Biden number; one that was well below the 47-49 percent range the former vice president has been in during the month of June in North Carolina. It was more consistent with Biden's share of support in the state in May.

And while the Gravis survey reduced the margin there, North Carolina remains tilted a little more than a point toward Biden in the FHQ averages, firmly in the toss up category.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	ID-4 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	KY-8 (39)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	ND-3 (31)
MD-10 (115)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	SD-3 (28)
IL-20 (135)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	AL-9 (25)
WA-12 (147)	MI-16 (228)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	NH-4 (232)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NE CD2-1 MN-10 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

As was described above, the new data out of New Hampshire pushed the Granite state further away from the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum above and onto the Watch List below. New Hampshire now joins Minnesota and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district as states (or other jurisdictions) where the average is within a point of moving them into another category, the "Lean Biden" category in this case.

North Carolina maintained its spot among the Biden toss ups just on the other side of Ohio from the partisan line. Here at FHQ North Carolina is as much on the Biden side of the partisan line as Georgia is on Trump's side.

And it should come as no surprise that Florida kept its position as the tipping point state. There just were not enough new polls -- especially among the states that look the closest at this point -- to change that today.

Finally, while there was new data out of New Hampshire, Nevada remains underpolled and Minnesota is lacking too. It would not hurt to get an update from either in the next week.

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Minnesota	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Montana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.