The Electoral College Map (6/26/20)

Update for June 26.

After a flood of new data on Thursday, all Friday had to offer was a handful of national polls. But the series of Sunbelt polls -- in Florida (Biden +9), Georgia (Biden +2), North Carolina (Biden +2) and Texas (Biden +1) -- from Fox that were released came out just after FHQ went live with the update a day ago. At least those are out there to incorporate.

So let's talk about them.

There were a few people out there who seemed amenable to the idea of Biden being marginally ahead in Georgia and Texas but balked at that gap in Biden's favor in Florida. And while that does grab the attention -- especially for those out there who have followed presidential (and for that matter, a number of statewide) elections in Sunshine state over the last few cycles -- that makes some sense. But if Biden is up two in Georgia and one in Texas and if there has been a uniform shift from 2016 to now, then the margin would be a bit wider in Florida than in the other states. No, it may not be a nine point spread there, but it is probably at or above the line between the Biden toss up states and the Lean Biden states. That is right around or above the 5 percent mark. At FHQ, Florida comes in just under that, but if one were to err on the side of caution, then Florida would likely be a bit in Lean Biden turf.

The North Carolina poll from Fox would be the one FHQ would take some exception to. If it is off, it is not by much, but the two point Biden edge in the Tar Heel state is not exactly consistent with the order of states that has been established so far this cycle. A two point Biden lead in Georgia would likely mean a four point advantage in North Carolina. Again, that is not that big a difference, but one worth point out in light of the Electoral College Spectrum below.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NE CD2-1 PA-203 (269/289)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	NH-43 (273/269)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	FL-29 (302/265)	MT-3 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	NV-6 (308/236)	SC-9 (109)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319/230)	UT-6 (100)	KY-8 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	ND-3 (22)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	TX-38 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	WI-10 (248)	IA-6 ME CD2-1 (132)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

Although this series of surveys from Fox catches the eye, it did little to shake up what has become apparent in the order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum here at FHQ. Florida jumped up one cell switching places with still-underpolled Nevada and Texas swapped spots with Iowa. Both, given the new polls, moved in Biden's direction.

And while the order above did not change all that much, the Watch List continues to grow. Florida joined New Hampshire, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and Pennsylvania as states on the cusp of pushing over into the Lean Biden category. All remain toss ups as FHQ defines it -- below a five point margin -- but the trajectory of change in each is toward Biden. Georgia, too, joined the Watch List. The Biden-favorable survey from the Peach state was enough to bring it within a point of the partisan line, the line separating Biden and Trump states. Georgia and Ohio are now the two states that could break the 352-186 Biden lead in the electoral college tally that has been in place since FHQ began these updates.

Not that that is what matters. Change, as was explained in yesterday's post, will come when it comes. When they occur around here, the changes tend to be fairly durable. But at this point, Georgia hopping the partisan line into Biden's column is more likely than Ohio pushing over to Trump's side.


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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine	from Lean Biden	to Strong Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Wisconsin	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/25/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/25/20)

Update for June 25.

Changes (June 25)
State	Before	After
Wisconsin	Toss Up Biden	Lean Biden

FHQ has been updating its Electoral College projection for a little more than a week now and a typical day has been a poll here, a poll there or maybe a release of a series of battleground state surveys. Today was a little different. Today there were two to three surveys released for the six states -- Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- that many view at the most competitive battlegrounds for the fall election.

Only, today none of them really looked all that much like battlegrounds. Not from the Siena College/ NYT Upshot, not from Hodas and Associates and not from Redfield and Wilton Strategies. There simply was no good news in any of the 15 state-level polls released today for President Trump. And if one were to cling to anything resembling good news for the president it would be that the former Vice President Biden was not above 50 percent in all of the polls. But Biden was above or approaching a majority of support in most of them. That is no enviable position to be in if one is an incumbent president seeking reelection.

And while the raft of new survey data did not alter the topline Electoral College tally here at FHQ, the collective polling did stretch out the margins across the board in all six states, all of which (but Michigan) were already shaded in light blue Biden toss up colors. But now, Wisconsin has slipped into Lean Biden territory on the strength of recent polling that has shown the lead there close to 10 points. The FHQ average there continues to run behind that level, but is a healthy Biden +5.47 points right now.

In fact, here is where all six stand:
Arizona: Biden +3.66
Florida: Biden +3.72
Michigan: Biden +7.45
North Carolina: Biden +1.91
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.59
Wisconsin: Biden +5.47

Now again, in most cases, those margins are likely a bit closer than some other projections/forecasts out there. But allow FHQ a chance to reiterate a point (from past cycles) that has been neglected to this point in the discussions around here. The averages here are weighted based on when they were in the field. A more recent poll carries a greater weight than a dated survey. But it is still an average and the more polling there is in a state, the more insulated it can be to rapid changes. Alternatively, a state with fewer polls may jump around a bit if the survey work that has been done there is more erratic.

And sure, the states listed above are the most frequently surveyed, and it can take a lot to move the needle. That is what one has seen with all the polling today: a number of big margin polls nudged Biden's support in those states a little more than might otherwise have been the case on a more "normal" polling day. But if one stops in here daily to see a lot of changes, one may leave disappointed. It is not that they do not happen, but that they tend to be more sporadic, but meaningful. When a frequently polled battleground state shifts categories or alters the Electoral College tally at FHQ, it typically means something, that a trend has been confirmed.

Biden, then, has leads across these states that are bigger than they were, sure, but they are also pretty durable.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NE CD2-1 PA-203 (269/289)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	NH-43 (273/269)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	NV-6 (279/265)	MT-3 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	FL-29 (308/259)	SC-9 (109)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	AZ-11 (319/230)	UT-6 (100)	KY-8 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	ND-3 (22)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	WI-10 (248)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states.

Yes, Wisconsin pushed into the Lean Biden category on the map, but there were changes elsewhere in how the race is tracked here at FHQ. For starters, there was enough of a shake up among the Biden toss ups because of these polls that there is no longer just one tipping point state. There are now two -- New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- because Biden or Trump would need both to crest above 270 electoral votes. If both got just the one closest to their coalition of states, then the Electoral College would end in a tie. [Yes, that Biden has a slight edge in Nebraska's 2nd district is important in that calculation.] But it should be said that both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are now on the Watch List below, much closer to changing to Lean Biden states than seeing Trump pull them into his column. And again, Biden at this point has a significant cushion that may serve him well down the stretch should there be any contraction across the country as election day approaches.

Not only did the Watch List add Pennsylvania today, but Wisconsin is newly on there as well. The trajectory of recent change in the Badger state is running away from any shift back into the toss up category. Maine also drifted onto the Watch List based not on new polling but how other states around it have changed. The Pine Tree state is now within a point of moving into the Strong Biden category.


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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Maine	from Lean Biden	to Strong Biden
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Wisconsin	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/24/20)

Update for June 24.

Wednesday brought with it the release of a trio of polls out of a handful of toss up states currently shaded in light blue here at FHQ. With that came the possibility of some changes. But as was the case with the Texas survey released a day ago, these latest polls of Biden toss up states maintained the status quo in each more than anything else.  However, that was more true in North Carolina and Ohio than it was for Wisconsin where the margin ran well ahead of where the average gap here at FHQ is at the moment.

Polling quick hits:
North Carolina:
Public Policy Polling was in the field in North Carolina earlier this week and again found former Vice President Joe Biden to be ahead of President Donal Trump. And while the two point edge is consistent with both recent polling in the Tar Heel state and the average lead Biden holds there, it was a bit of a contraction from the poll the firm released earlier in June. That may or may not be statistical noise between the two surveys, but PPP has had Biden marginally ahead of Trump in all of its 2020 polling of North Carolina.

Ohio:
Similarly, the Quinnipiac survey of Ohio had Biden just in front of Trump which is also in line with the average margin here at FHQ (Biden +0.4). The Buckeye state remains the closest state between the two major party candidates and is the state most likely to alter the current 352-186 electoral college projection. And as odd as it might seem, Ohio has only been surveyed on the presidential race six times in calendar 2020. Typically, the electoral college bellwether has been polled quite a bit more frequently and provides a clearer picture on the state of the race there. But it is not as if the handful of surveys there have oscillated that much. All have shown a race between Biden and Trump within four points.

Wisconsin:
Polling frequency has not been an issue in Wisconsin in 2020, but that was probably never going to be the case with it or any of the blue wall states that drifted over into the Republican column four years ago. And with the exception of a couple of Change Research surveys, all of the polls conducted in the Badger state since the last Marquette survey there have pointed to a margin closer to double digits in Biden's favor than another nail biter as in 2016. This latest Marquette poll falls in that range as well. It along with the stream of recent polling has pushed Wisconsin further away from the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum below and closer to Lean Biden territory. But it is not there yet.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	WI-10 (259)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	FL-293 (288/279)	MT-3 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	KY-8 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	ND-3 (22)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NH-4 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 279 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

While one will always take any new data out of a group of battleground states, the introduction of today's polls did little to alter the outlook depicted above on the map. But the Wisconsin survey did push the Badger state past Florida, deeper into Biden's coalition of states. Despite the two states swapping positions, Florida remained the tipping point state where Biden crosses 270 electoral votes (or where Trump would surpass that threshold if he were to win all of the states in various shades of red plus the Biden toss ups up to and including the Sunshine state).

And given that the North Carolina and Ohio surveys mostly confirmed the averages that had already been established in each, they both retained their positions on the Spectrum, the two blue states right up against the partisan line.

Although the Watch List stayed the same as it was a day ago, Wisconsin moved closer to being included. Both Wisconsin and Nevada have average margins just under four points and are just off the List at this time.

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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/23/20)

Update for June 23.

Election day is just 19 weeks away, and the state of the presidential race through the broad lens of the Electoral College looks like it did a week ago when these updates debuted. The state-level polls through the FHQ graduated weighted average continues to show an electoral vote tally favoring former Vice President Joe Biden. And neither the steady trickle of survey releases over the last week nor today's new Texas poll have done anything to change that.

Under the surface there have been some changes, but there just has not been enough polling to significantly alter the course of the race. Florida became and has stayed the tipping point state and Minnesota, on the weight of one new poll (and likely an outlier at that), shifted from a Biden Toss Up to a Strong Biden state.

That is really it in the first week of these projections updates. It is not that any of that is without consequence, it is just that those consequences have been fairly limited at the outset.

Polling quick hits:
Texas:
Public Policy Polling has now surveyed the Lone Star state twice this month, and those are the only two polls conducted in Texas completely within the month of June. The earlier poll found the race between Biden and President Donald Trump tied, but Biden's support has trailed off some in the state since then while Trump has held steady. And if one includes the PPP survey in Texas from April, then there is a bit of a pattern: the race has moved from a one point Biden edge in late April to a deadlock in early June to a two point Trump advantage as the month nears its end. Yes, that could just as easily be statistical noise across a group of surveys from one pollster, but it also may not be.

The bottom line through all of the Texas polling in 2020 to this point is that Trump enjoys a lead, but a consistently small one. This latest PPP survey overlays pretty cleanly on top of where the FHQ average has the race in the Lone Star state: basically Trump +2. Although, the poll has both candidates running a little less than a point ahead of their average shares of support.


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MA-112 (14)	CT-7 (173)	NV-6 (249)	MO-10 (125)	NE-2 (56)
HI-4 (18)	OR-7 (180)	FL-293 (278/289)	AK-3 (115)	TN-11 (54)
CA-55 (73)	DE-3 (183)	WI-10 (288/260)	MT-3 (112)	AL-9 (43)
VT-3 (76)	CO-9 (192)	AZ-11 (299/250)	SC-9 (109)	ID-4 (34)
NY-29 (105)	NM-5 (197)	PA-20 (319/239)	UT-6 (100)	KY-8 (30)
MD-10 (115)	MN-10 (207)	NC-15 (334/219)	LA-8 NE CD1-1 (94)	ND-3 (22)
IL-20 (135)	VA-13 (220)	OH-18 (352/204)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
WA-12 (147)	ME-2 (222)	GA-16 (186)	IN-11 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 ME CD1-1 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (170)	KS-6 (68)	WV-5 (9)
NJ-14 (166)	NH-4 NE CD2-1 (243)	TX-38 ME CD2-1 (164)	AR-6 (62)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states up to Florida), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state.

But this was one of those polls that maintains the status quo. Any survey that comes in essentially mimicking the average -- weighted or not -- will tend to do that. Needless to say, then, the Texas poll did little to shake things up here at FHQ. Texas stays in the group of Trump Toss Ups kept its spot at the bottom of the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum. But the poll did ever so slightly nudge the average margin there up to nearly two points. Texas remains a state much closer than it has been in many cycles of the recent past, but still one that is lodged in the Republican column for now.

And if Texas is a state that is (and stays) close, then that is troubling sign for Trump and his reelection hopes. To have to expend resources defending Texas -- should it come to that -- is going to make it that much harder to go on offense in states the president carried four years ago. And there are actually quite a few states shaded in light blue above where the president's campaign will have to play defense and not offense. Six of the eight states in the Biden toss up category were Trump states in 2016.

But again, there are 19 weeks to go in this race and much can and will happen. The map may not stay this way throughout.

**There were no changes to either the tipping point state (Florida) above on the Spectrum or to the Watch List below. The new Texas poll moved the Lone Star state away from its most proximate category change. It was and is closer to becoming a Biden toss up rather than Lean Trump state at this point.

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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Louisiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD1	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nebraska CD2	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll the thad Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (6/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (6/19/20)