The Electoral College Map (9/25/20)

 Update for September 25.

Changes (September 25)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up Biden	Lean Biden
Ohio	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Biden

It was September 1 when last there was a change to the overall electoral vote tally at FHQ. Then it was Ohio drifting over the partisan line onto Toss Up Trump turf. And in the time after the conventions, it was not unreasonable to think that close as the Buckeye state may be over the remainder of the race, it would not necessarily jump the partisan line to join the Biden coalition of states. Well, close Ohio has remained in the intervening weeks, and on the weight of yesterday's Fox News poll, the state has, in fact, moved back over to Toss Up Biden territory, raising the former vice president's total projected number of electoral votes to 353. That would put Biden in between the Obama 2008 on the high end and Obama 2012 on the low end.

Yet, there are still 39 days to go until election day as the race enters this final weekend before the first presidential debate next week. There is, then, still time for things to change. And Ohio may very well be first in line to move back over the partisan line once again. Biden's current lead there is a not exactly insurmountable 0.08 points.

Elsewhere on the Friday poll release front...

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.36]
The last time Data for Progress_ was in the field in Arizona in early August, Biden led by three points. In the time since then, Trump has gained a couple of points, seemingly at Biden's expense creating a four point swing and a Trump lead in the latter survey in the series. Polls of Arizona with the president ahead have been few and far between all year, but this is the second one in the last few days. But unlike that ABC/WaPo survey of the Grand Canyon state, this one was more consistent on the Trump number than on Biden's. Biden, in this one, was toward the lower end of his range in recent polling while the president was in the heart of his. The opposite was true of the ABC/WaPo poll.

California
(Biden 67, Trump 28)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +30.23]
There is not a whole lot to make of the update in California from UC-Berkeley. The university pollster last conducted a survey in the Golden state back at the end of the July and found the same 67-28 advantage for Biden. That is not only no change over those last nearly two months, but this poll matches the largest margin in California polling in calendar 2020.

Florida
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.41]
For all the talk about the narrowing of the race in the Sunshine state, there is still a certain consistency there. Yes, the margin has come down in recent weeks, but looking more closely, Biden +3 has become a predictable outcome to polls in September. Of the 19 surveys conducted in whole or in party during this month so far, Biden has led by three points in nearly half of them (9 of 19). And that group includes the latest Data for Progress survey of Florida. Both candidates may come in a little behind their established FHQ averages in this poll, but both are off by about the same amount.

Maine
(Biden 50, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.79]

Maine CD1
(Biden 54, Trump 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.00]

Maine CD2
(Biden 46, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.46]
Further north in Maine, Colby College released poll results to a survey that closely resembled the status quo there. Biden was out in front statewide, way ahead in the first district and narrowly ahead in the second. And it was in the least competitive of the three where the poll diverged the most from the FHQ average shares for both candidates. Biden lagged three point behind his share there while Trump ran a couple of points ahead of his. But consistency is the name of the game with this survey.

Maryland
(Biden 62, Trump 30)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +28.76]
There has not been much survey work in the Old Line state so far in calendar 2020, so the new poll from OpinionWorks had the potential to really uproot Maryland in the order depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum below. And it did. The 32 point margin is basically 25 percent greater than in the other surveys there and expanded Biden's lead to more than 28 points in the graduated weighted average of the margin. That pushed Maryland deeper into Biden's coalition of states.

Minnesota
(Biden 47, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.14]
At one time it looked as if the race for Minnesota's ten electoral votes was tightening, but most of the polling there -- including this latest Suffolk survey -- has found the race comfortably in the Lean category range (five to ten points). There are exceptions, of course, but they are rare. However, while the margin in this poll fell in that range, there was still room for growth for both candidates. Although this was a likely voter sample, there remained more than ten percent of respondents who were either undecided or have to this point thrown their support behind a minor party candidate.

Nevada
(Biden 52, Trump 41 via Fox News | Biden 47, Trump 43 via ALG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.82]
Ohio grabbed all the attention at the outset for jumping the partisan line into Biden territory, but Nevada also changed categories mainly on the weight of the latest Fox News poll there. That eleven point Biden lead is a bit rosy for the former vice president compared to other Silver state surveys. In fact, other than the other Fox News poll (of registered voters) back in January, no poll has found the race outside of a Biden +3-5 range. But those two polls -- even the discounted Biden +8 Fox poll from the first week of the year -- have nudged Nevada over the Lean/Toss Up line into Lean status. But Biden's advantage there is just inside the lower end of the Lean category, so Nevada remains on the Watch List. The likely switch now, however, is from Lean to Toss Up instead of the reverse.

Ohio
(Biden 50, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.08]
The impact of the new Fox News poll of Ohio is clear enough. By the slimmest of margins, the Biden +5 has moved the Buckeye state over the partisan line into Biden's coalition of states. Putting this one into context, however, reveals that 1) Fox has been Biden-favorable in its 2020 polls of Ohio and 2) that that manifests itself through a Biden share of support that comes in well above his established average based on the full world of 2020 Ohio polling. While Trump's share is generally within his range, the Biden share in the Fox poll has him about four points ahead of his. Back in June it was Biden who was right on his share in that Fox poll, and Trump under his. This one looks like an outlier if only because this is just the second time the former vice president has reached 50 percent in any poll in the Buckeye state.

Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 44 via Fox News | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Trafalgar Group)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.06]
That has not been the case in the Keystone state. Fox News has consistently over three polls had Biden at or over 50 percent. But only now in the first likely voter survey the firm has conducted in Pennsylvania has Trump caught up with his FHQ average in the state. Meanwhile Trafalgar has Trump running ahead of his average and Biden slightly behind his. Neither of these polls is too far off the mark compared to other recent polling in Pennsylvania. Both have the candidates with their established ranges. Pennsylvania -- still the tipping point state -- continues to flirt with that Lean/Toss Up line on the Biden side and has consistently stayed just above it for a while now.

Texas
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.18]
Finally, in Texas, Data for Progress showed a close race for the Lone Star state's 38 electoral votes. And this survey is basically right on the 47-46 advantage Trump holds in the state (after rounding). Things did not change much from yesterday when Texas came off the Watch List but remained in range. In fact, the margin ticked down just a hair but continues to be tipped in the president's direction.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	NV-6 (259)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	PA-203 (279 | 279)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	KS-6 (103)	KY-8 (34)
MD-10 (86)	ME-2 (190)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (97)	ID-4 (26)
NY-29 (115)	CO-9 (199)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ND-3 (22)
WA-12 (127)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (353 | 203)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 ME CD1-1 (148)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (185)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	GA-16 (179)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 279 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Obviously, the Nevada and Ohio moves will grab the headlines today, but there was some other movement beyond those two. Still close in their margins, Arizona and Florida once again switched spots in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum with the Grand Canyon state pushing closer to the partisan line. But as always in the situations, it is best not to get caught up in the maneuvering so much as how close the two are. Any new polls of the two has the potential to flip them again. Further out on the blue end of the Spectrum, ME CD1 shifted down a cell while Maryland moved up a couple of cells toward the left end of the Spectrum.

The Watch List continued to comprise the same ten states as it did a day ago, but the potential changes in both Nevada and Ohio have flipped since then with their category changes. But again, both are still close enough to those lines and could move back given any new polling data. Time will tell, but for now, the electoral vote tally is now projected at 353-185 again.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 25 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)

Update for September 24.

FHQ has said this a number of times this week, but there was a lot to look at today on the polling front: 19 surveys from 12 states. It was a mixture of the six core battleground states (sans Florida), the four Trump toss up states, and then a handful of states that are further out on the ends of the Spectrum that help to calibrate the average swing FHQ has been keeping tabs on from election day 2016 to 2020 general election polling. Currently sitting at Democrats +7.40, that average swing has ticked down a few notches in recent weeks. Once it was approaching eight points, but it topped out and has been receding some since Biden's summer surge that has subsequently regressed to the springtime mean. But that is another way -- the trajectory of average swing across states -- to measure narrowing in this race. So far, it suggests some tightening but not a whole lot.

On to the polls...

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.47]
Data Orbital was last in the field in Arizona in June and little has changed. Biden continues to claim a two point advantage, but both candidates have peeled off some support from undecided/other in those three months. And that is not unexpected as election day nears. However, this survey does overstate both candidates' support relative to their established averages here at FHQ. That, too, should be expected on some level as election day grows closer.

Georgia
(Trump 45, Biden 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 46, Biden 46 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
Over in the Peach state, both Siena and Data for Progress were in the field there for the first time in calendar 2020. And both found a tied race. That is now three poll releases over the last three days to have the race for the Georgia's 16 electoral votes knotted at somewhere in the mid-40s. The average margin continues to reflect that. FHQ now has basically tied at 46.

Iowa
(Biden 45, Trump 42 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 49, Biden 46 via Monmouth)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.36]
The polling in Iowa may be a bit more variable overall, but the bottom line is the same as it is in Georgia. Trump retains a slim advantage but it is tempered by the fact that the Siena and Monmouth polls released today showed three point leads. But it was one for each candidate. Biden was the more consistent of the two across both surveys, but even averaging the two polls comes out to a tie at 46 (rounded), which is in line with where the FHQ weighted averages currently have the contest in Iowa.

Kansas
(Trump 49, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.36]
The aim at Data for Progress may have been to survey the Senate landscape in the four states covered today, but it is a bonus to get the presidential numbers in typically reliably red states like Kansas (and Kentucky below). Again that helps to better calibrate the extent of the swing from 2016 to 2020. This poll represents the closest the race has appeared in the Sunflower state's limited polling in 2020 and also Biden's peak there. With this survey incorporated, Biden is overperforming Clinton by a little more than six points while Trump is lagging an almost equivalent amount behind his 2016 pace in Kansas. However, this survey is more consistent with the FHQ average on Trump's share than Biden's. The former vice president is running about three points ahead of his average. Kansas will stay red in 2020, but it has drawn closer in the last four years, only the gap has closer at a rate greater than the average swing.

Kentucky
(Trump 56, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +17.21]
The other deep red state poll from Data for Progress was conducted in Kentucky. There really were not any surprises here. Yes, the swing toward the Democrats from 2016 to 2020 is above average and nearly the same 12 points, but this survey is much more in line with the established average at FHQ: 55-38, Trump. No poll that on target is going to have much of an impact on the average. And this one did not.

Michigan
(Trump 47, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 51, Trump 45 via YouGov | Biden 50, Trump 44 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.23]
One of these Michigan polls released today does not look like the others. One of these polls is more divergent from the established average margin there than the others. And it is not that Trafalgar missed on one candidate's share and was consistent on the other. It had Trump five points ahead of his average and Biden three points behind his. But then again, this poll is in line with the two other Trafalgar polls in Michigan. The story there is stability even if that series strays from where other pollsters have the race there. Both candidates were above their average shares in the Great Lakes state in the other two polls, but again, one should expect that as election day approaches and undecideds come off the board. But Biden gained more than Trump did -- twice as much -- in the YouGov poll over the firm's last collaboration with the University of Wisconsin at the beginning of August.

Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.26]
The same change that marked the story in the Michigan series from YouGov above is true of the latest Quinnipiac survey of Ohio. Biden continued to cling to a one point edge -- just as was the case in June Q-poll -- but both candidates saw their share of support modestly increase over the last three months. As is the case in both Georgia and Iowa, FHQ has the battle for the 18 electoral votes in the Buckeye state tied at 46. So this poll has both out in front of their average share but Biden by marginally more. The bottom line in Ohio is that it is close, representing a nearly eight point swing from 2016. And again, if the discussion about which states are the most competitive on election day includes Ohio, then Biden is in reasonably good shape unless the overall swing is not uniform everywhere.

Oklahoma
(Trump 55, Biden 33)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +22.11]
What can one say about the situation in Oklahoma? Well, it remains comfortably red for the president. Furthermore, the margin in the Amber Integrated survey is consistent with the FHQ average margin in the Sooner state. Both candidates' support lagged in this poll behind the average share each has in the averages, but neither was by more than two points. This one is par for the course in Oklahoma. It is a safe state for Trump, but one where the swing has been well above average, nearly double it in fact.

Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 45 via YouGov | Biden 48, Trump 42 via Franklin & Marshall | Biden 50, Trump 45 via CPEC)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.08]
The trio of surveys out of the Keystone state today are all not far off of the averages here at FHQ, but there are some interesting notes in the two series from Franklin & Marshall and YouGov. The former has seen Biden's share tick down each month over the last three months, but Trump has remained stationary. And that is not the sort of trajectory that changes things around here all that much. It counters any notion of a narrowing race in Pennsylvania. But the YouGov trend line is different. Unlike the change across the YouGov series in Michigan, Biden lost some ground, but Trump gained, closing the gap, but not to a point as close as the one point Biden lead in the first poll in the sequence in February. This, then, is not a case of regressing to the springtime mean, not completely anyway.

Texas
(Trump 46, Biden 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Trump 50, Biden 45 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.19]
In the Lone Star state, Siena was in the field for their first poll of the season and found Trump up by a handful of points. Compared to the established averages there, both candidates run behind them in this survey, but Biden more than the president. But the Trump number is more in line with his range in recent polls. Biden's is not, and it is attributable to the more inflated undecided/other shares in this survey. Quinnipiac, on the other hand has now conducted three surveys in Texas in calendar 2020, but this is the first with a likely voter screen. Whereas the earlier registered polls showed a one point lead in one direction or the other, the transition to a likely voter sample has benefited Trump, pushing the president to 50 percent while Biden hovered around where he has been in the previous surveys. Texas remains close, but these polls pushed it off the Watch List below.


Virginia
(Biden 48, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.61]
The Christopher Newport surveys of Virginia in 2016 were all over the place, sometimes showing Clinton way up, but almost always with other candidates -- those not from either of the two major parties -- pulling in a hefty level of support that did not materialize on election day. That is not exactly the case with the first of the university's polls in 2020, but this one does stand out from all of the other surveys conducted in the commonwealth this year. And it is all about the margin. No poll of the Old Dominion has had Biden up by anything less than double digits since February. No poll has had Trump as high as 43 all year. And it has been since February that Biden has been below 50 percent in a Virginia poll. The tide may be turning there, or it could be that this poll is an outlier.

Wisconsin
(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.41]
Finally, the last of the blue wall YouGov polls in Wisconsin represents the latest in a series but also a transition from registered to likely voters. The two point Biden lead in February grew to six points in August, but has contracted in the month since with the switch to a likely voter screen. Both candidates gained in that time, but what Trump added was three times that of Biden's gain. But compared to other recent likely voter surveys of the Badger state, this one has Trump well ahead of where he has been elsewhere (and about three points ahead of his FHQ average). Biden crests above his average share as well, but only by a fraction of a point.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	AZ-11 (290 | 259)	KS-6 (103)	KY-8 (34)
NY-29 (105)	ME-2 (190)	FL-29 ME CD2-1 (320 | 248)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (97)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	CO-9 (199)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 ME CD1-1 (128)	VA-13 (212)	OH-18 (203)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (185)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	GA-16 (179)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Again, there was a lot to look at today and a fair number of changes to boot. No, none of those changes were to the colors any states affected are shaded on the map, but there was more shuffling on the Electoral College Spectrum and a couple of changes to the Watch List. Take the latter first. Texas moved off the list but only barely while Virginia on the weight of that outlier CNU poll pushed under the Biden +11 mark and thus inched within a fraction of a point of the 10 point line separating the Strong and Lean Biden categories.

Working from left to right on the Spectrum, Colorado and Virginia swapped spots with Virginia moving closer to the partisan line. Wisconsin moved back to the most competitive middle column, trading spots again with New Hampshire. One should also get used to constant shuffling among the three states that are Trump's first line of defense up against the partisan line. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are just that close to one another. Today, Georgia and Iowa switched places and it was the Hawkeye state that shifted closer to the partisan line. Finally, the new poll of Kansas -- the smallest margin there are year -- moved the Sunflower state past Montana toward the partisan line separating the Trump states from Biden states. Overall, however, Pennsylvania remained in the middle of it all, the tipping point state five points out of Trump's grasp at the moment.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 24 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Virginia	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)

Update for September 23.

Wednesday brought 17 new polls from eight states. Primarily those came from the core six battlegrounds -- Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- but another couple of Trump-leaning toss ups -- Georgia and Ohio -- were also represented. Nothing from the flood of new data in eight of the most targeted states did anything to change the map -- still Biden 335-203 in the electoral vote tally -- but there was some important shuffling in the order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. There will be more of that in the discussion below the Spectrum, but for now, here is a look at the cache of surveys that greeted Thursday.

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Trump 49, Biden 48 via ABC/WaPo | Biden 47, Trump 46 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.49]
Much was made early on today about the Republican tilt to the sample in the ABC/WaPo survey out of Arizona. [The same was true in Florida.] There are two things one can count on one hand about recent polling in Arizona. First, Trump leads have been few and far between, and second, the president has been at or above 49 percent in the Grand Canyon state just four times (in all of calendar 2020). That is not to say this one is necessarily an outlier. It could be the start of a new trend in the Sun Belt. Or, it could be an outlier. The Ipsos poll was the first in the state this year and is marginally more consistent with the FHQ averages. Biden ran a bit behind his average share while Trump was a couple of points ahead of his. But Ipsos was more in the range of typical results than was ABC/WaPo.

Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls | Trump 51, Biden 47 via ABC/WaPo | Biden 47, Trump 47 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.42]
It was the first time in the field for both ABC/WaPo and Ipsos in the Sunshine state as well. But there is an established series from St. Pete Polls. That one can quickly be dispensed with however. Since the firm last conducted a Florida poll two weeks ago, neither the candidates shares of support nor the margin has changed. The focus, then, should probably be on the other two polls. But if one read the Arizona synopsis above, then the message was likely delivered on these Florida surveys as well. The ABC/WaPo poll looks like an outlier pending other future polls and Ipsos also had Biden running a tad behind his average while Trump was a couple of points ahead of his. So yeah, pretty much the same as Arizona. Importantly, however, the margin in Florida continues to tick down toward a tie, but still favors Biden for now.

Georgia
(Trump 50, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.43]
Looking at the update in Georgia from Monmouth there was not a whole lot of change since the college pollster was last in the field in the Peach state at the end of July. Trump gained a point and Biden lost one in the low turnout likely voter model in that time. Even using the high turnout assumptions, the president remained stable since July as Biden lost a point. Neither assumption would have fundamentally changed where Georgia is in the rank ordering of states. Had it not been for the change in Ohio, the Peach state would have continued to be the closest Trump state on his side of the partisan line. It would have remained there had FHQ used the high turnout version of the results, but with the low turnout assumption, Georgia yields the distinction of being the closest Trump state to Ohio.

North Carolina
(Trump 45, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.47]
The latest update of North Carolina from Harper Polling_ finds President Trump easing back into the lead in the Tar Heel state, but by the slimmest of margins. Back in early August it was Biden who held that same narrow 45-44 lead in the Harper survey. And that pre-convention poll, seemingly post-surge for the former vice president, was the high point for him in the series. Earlier polls in May and before had the president up by greater margins (and outside of the margin of error in April). That early Trump advantage has long since dissipated and been replaced in the current period by surveys showing a close race in North Carolina. Not only that, but the range of leads for both candidates has shrunk as well, all the while continuing to give Biden the advantage. But the Tar Heel state is the closest of the states among the Biden coalition right now.


Baldwin-Wallace (Great Lakes Poll #3)

Michigan: Biden +8 (Biden +3, Trump +/-0 since March wave)
Ohio: Biden +1 (Biden +2, Trump -3)
Pennsylvania: Biden +2 (Biden +2, Trump -2)
Wisconsin: Biden +9 (Biden +5, Trump -4)

The last Great Lakes Poll from Baldwin-Wallace came all the way back in March. In the six months since then, all four states have moved in Biden's direction. All have swung at least three points toward the former vice president, but none more than Wisconsin which shifted nine points in that time. That is fairly indicative of the polling of late in the Badger state. While in some other states, most notably Florida, there has been some narrowing of the gap between the two major party candidates, Wisconsin has continued to advantage Biden. Those double digit leads of the surge period for Biden has disappeared, but there continues to be a steady stream of mid- to upper single digit advantages that come in day after day. In this series, it has been enough to push Wisconsin past Michigan, but the Badger state is the only one out of order compared to the Spectrum below.


Change Research (late September battleground wave)

Arizona: Biden +6 (Biden +/-0, Trump -2 since early September wave)
Florida: Biden +3 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0)
Michigan: Biden +8 (Biden +2, Trump +/-0)
North Carolina: Biden +2 (Biden -1, Trump -1)
Pennsylvania: Biden +4 (Biden -1, Trump -1)
Wisconsin: Biden +9 (Biden +1, Trump -2)

There was also another Change Research update from those core battleground states. As has been the case in this twice monthly updated series, there just was not that much change from the last polls in the sequence. Like the B-W updates above, it was again Wisconsin that was out of place, looking marginally less competitive than Michigan. But Arizona was also out of order compared to what is depicted on the Spectrum. The Grand Canyon state ended up on the Biden side of Pennsylvania, and it was that survey that was more divergent from the FHQ averages than was true of the survey in the Keystone state.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	NH-4 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	AZ-11 (290 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (34)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	FL-29 ME CD2-1 (320 | 248)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 ME CD1-1 (128)	ME-2 (212)	OH-18 (203)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	GA-16 (185)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	IA-6 (169)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 WI-10 (249)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

All the new data on the day did not alter the map or the Watch List, but again, it was the order on the Electoral College Spectrum that saw some change after this round of surveys was added. Importantly, the collision course Arizona and Florida have found themselves on of late saw them cross paths with the Grand Canyon state moving one cell further away from the partisan line. The president may not need Arizona if he can pick off a state like Pennsylvania currently on the other side of Arizona in the order, but Trump in most scenarios that hew closely to the established order of states, absolutely needs Florida. That Florida is inching closer to tied, then, is, well, a bit of sunshine for the president.

As mentioned above Ohio jumped both Iowa and Georgia to settle in next to the partisan line. All three states are knotted together favoring the president by less than half a point. Their order is less consequential than their relative proximity to one another. And the talk of Wisconsin's recent margins in the discussions of both series of polls above is also not without consequence. The Badger state pushed past underpolled New Hampshire in the order, moving out of that most competitive middle column to join Michigan. The average margin did not change that much in Wisconsin, but that move in the order speaks to how it has stayed stable in Biden's column as some other states have shown some signs of tightening.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 23 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Texas	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/22/20)

Update for September 22.

There are now just six weeks until election day. And this particular Tuesday, six weeks out, came with 10 new polls from nine states. It was a cache of data that updated the state of play in a number of battlegrounds while also providing new information in a pair of sporadically polled, but comfortably blue states. Across the board, however, the picture of the race for the White House at this moment remained one of stability. Joe Biden continues to hold durable leads in the important states that will determine whether he or President Donald Trump get to 270 electoral votes.

While Florida has drawn noticeably closer in recent days, those former blue wall states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- are still seemingly stubbornly out of the president's reach by five to seven points. For every poll in any of those three states that emerges showing the race around, say, three points, there is another one (or more) that has the battle in those states within that five to seven point range. The president does not need all three of those states, but he will need one and to win all the toss ups to get there.

Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia
(Trump 47, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.23]
The University of Georgia updated its outlook on the race for the Peach state's 16 electoral votes for the first time since a survey just before Super Tuesday back in March. The 51-43 Trump advantage then has closed to a tie, a finding that is consistent with where Georgia stands in the averages here. And as FHQ has said throughout the summer, if the discussion on election day about which states are the most competitive revolves around Georgia and those immediately around it in the order on the Spectrum below, then Biden is likely to be in pretty good shape.

Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.44]
Similar to the UGA series of surveys above, the Selzer polls in Iowa started out 2020 showing Trump up by a margin comparable to the results on election day in 2016. However, over time that lead has shrunk. The ten point advantage the president had over Biden in March around Super Tuesday fell to just one point three months later. Now, three months after that June survey, the battle for those six electoral votes in the Hawkeye state is a dead heat. Iowa is still slightly tipped in Trump's direction based on the full world of polling in the state in calendar 2020, but this series is indicative the trajectory of change there and where things may have leveled off.

Michigan
(Biden 46, Trump 41 via Market Research Group | Biden 49, Trump 44 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.42]
Both MRG and Ipsos have been in the field in Michigan this year, but the trajectory of change reflected in the two series is different over time. Biden gained in both sets, but Trump held pat in the low 40s in the MRG polls while his support grew at almost twice the rate of Biden's in the Ipsos set. The change in the latter can be at least partially pinned on the switch from a registered voter sample in April to likely voter screen being used now. But again, the margin in Michigan, one of those blue wall states from 2016, has been consistently in the seven to eight point range most of the summer. Polls that show a five point margin will cut into that over time, but slowly.


North Carolina
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
The Ipsos survey of the Tar Heel state is the third from a closely contested toss up today that shows a race knotted at 47. Biden has been camped out around 47 percent support in the FHQ averages for a while, but Trump has generally trailed that but a couple of points. North Carolina, like Florida, has narrowed some of late, but the rate of change is much less dramatic in the Tar Heel state. The tight range of results has something to do with that. Biden's leads tend to top out now at +3 and the president's peak in August and September has been +2. Gone are those mid-summer polls during Biden's polling surge where his advantages stretched occasionally into the mid- and upper single digits.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.16]
Ipsos also conducted a survey in Pennsylvania, but unlike in North Carolina, this was the firm's second in the Keystone state. As with the series discussed above in Georgia and Iowa, the Ipsos series in Pennsylvania found a tighter race now than in April. But that six point Biden lead then in a registered voter survey was cut in half under a likely voter screen. That transition may explain the bulk of that change rather than any natural narrowing. One thing that can be said about Pennsylvania polling in September is that Joe Biden is at or over 50 precent much less often than he was in earlier periods. The former vice president does not tend to be far under that majority threshold, but that is also indicative of the subtle changes that may be taking place in the commonwealth and elsewhere.


South Carolina
(Trump 50, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +5.98]
What can one say about the state of polling in the Palmetto state? The latest Morning Consult survey there is very much in line with where polling has been all summer there. In fact, the five point Trump edge in the last Morning Consult poll in early August has barely changed. South Carolina is closer than it was in 2016, but it is clearly polling at a Lean Trump state with a margin just inside the Lean/Toss Up line on the lower end of the Lean range.


Vermont
(Biden 56, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +27.44]
Braun Research brings the first glimpse of the race in the Green Mountain state all year. No, Vermont was never at risk of jumping the partisan line to join the Trump coalition of state much less shift into a less dark blue category. But it is good to confirm that with some 2020 data. But as was the case with the first Oregon poll to be released recently, this first foray in Vermont does not appear all that different than how things looked there in November 2016. That has not been true in all of the Strong Biden states, but it has in a handful of underpolled states in that category.


Washington
(Biden 58, Trump 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +24.46]
The case in point is probably Washington. Biden has over performed Clinton in this solidly blue state while Trump has lagged behind his showing from four years ago. The latest Strategies 360 survey is indicative of that on some level. It has Biden right on his established FHQ average share of support. Trump, on the other hand, is running a little ahead of his own average but still almost 25 points behind.


Wisconsin
(Biden 48, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.34]
Finally, Ipsos also surveyed Wisconsin and ended up with results that differ from some of the other Ipsos polls out today. The switch from registered to likely voter samples in Michigan and Pennsylvania drove much of the narrowing both states. But the story is slightly different in the Wisconsin series. The April registered voter survey from the firm had Biden up only three with more undecided voters and more support for other candidates. Both trailed off significantly in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but in Wisconsin, the undecideds remained stable and the other support dried up and ostensibly shifted to the two major candidates, but more so to Biden. That is part of the reason why the former vice president's margin grew from April to now in that sample transition, bringing the Ipsos poll in line with where the FHQ average margin in the Badger state currently rests.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3 MA-11 (14)2	CT-7 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (60)
HI-4 (18)	NJ-14 (176)	PA-203 (273 | 285)	SC-9 (122)	IN-11 (51)
CA-55 (73)	OR-7 (183)	NV-6 (279 | 265)	MO-10 (113)	UT-6 (40)
VT-3 (76)	NM-5 (188)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	MT-3 (103)	KY-8 (34)
NY-29 (105)	CO-9 (197)	AZ-11 ME CD2-1 (320 | 230)	KS-6 NE CD1-1 (100)	ID-4 (26)
WA-12 (117)	VA-13 (210)	NC-15 (335 | 218)	LA-8 (93)	ND-3 (22)
MD-10 ME CD1-1 (128)	ME-2 (212)	GA-16 (203)	MS-6 (85)	SD-3 (19)
IL-20 (148)	MN-10 (222)	IA-6 (187)	AR-6 (79)	OK-7 (16)
RI-4 (152)	MI-16 (238)	OH-18 (181)	NE-2 (73)	WV-5 (9)
DE-3 (155)	NE CD2-1 NH-4 (243)	TX-38 (163)	TN-11 (71)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

For a day with two polls, the expectations may be high for some changes. But there just were not any or very many really. The map and Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago, and there was but one subtle shift on the Electoral College Spectrum. Iowa and Ohio switched spots with the Hawkeye state moving one cell closer to the partisan line separating the Biden and Trump states. But those two -- Iowa and Ohio -- are essentially tied at the moment within a one hundredth of a point of each other in their margins.

Pennsylvania continues to hold down the distinction of being the tipping point state in the order. Trump still has the ground between the partisan line and the Keystone state to make up in order to get back within striking distance of 270.



Where things stood at FHQ on September 22 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008



--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Potential Switch
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Georgia	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Louisiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Texas	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/21/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/20/20)

The Electoral College Map (9/19/20)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.