Thursday, January 21, 2021

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- Biden Running for Re-election

Four years after President Trump immediately upon being inaugurated filed to run for re-election in 2020, surrogates of President Biden took a verbal although not formal step in the same direction. 

Senator Chris Coons (D), the newly inaugurated president's fellow Delawarean, let Politico know very simply that, "He is planning to run again."

Now, part or perhaps all of this feels obligatory. No president wants to kick off his or her term as a lame duck. That gives both Congress and the bureaucracy license to dig in over time and resist or obstruct changes both big and small. This move, then, heads that off, albeit likely only temporarily. 

It also holds at bay other prospective Democrats waiting in the wings. That group, including the newly installed vice president, now has to take an even more wait-and-see approach to any possible 2024 run for the Democratic nomination. But unlike Congress and the bureaucratic end of the executive branch, those potential candidates still have time. And while there may be a flurry of early activity on the rules side for 2024 among Democrats, the majority of visible invisible primary activity is going to continue to occur among the Republicans who are likely to seek the party's nomination in likely just two years time. 

So candidate emergence, to the extent it is going to continue happening as 2024 slowly approaches is going to be a mostly Republican action. 


Recent posts: 

A Few Notes on the 2024 Presidential Primary Calendar

On the first full day of the newly sworn-in Biden administration and a day after the 2020 election cycle came to a close at the federal level, the invisible primary quietly trundled on toward the next presidential cycle. No, not everyone is ready to begin listening to or reading chatter about 2024, but it is happening. And while FHQ has made some passing mention of 2024 activities on social media in early 2021 (and before), we will begin where we often do: with a particular focus on the 2024 presidential primary calendar.

Yes, there is a very long way to go -- 1110 days until (tentative) Iowa caucuses on February 5, 2024 -- but as in the past, since-passed cycles offer a window into what the starting baseline calendar will (probably might) look like in roughly three years time. State laws continue to provide the most guidance as to when the majority of states will hold their delegate selection events next time around. Those laws can, and in some cases will, change over the next few years. But for now, the statutes are the statutes. 

Here are a few things to bear in mind about this initial iteration of the 2024 calendar early in this current invisible primary:

1. For starters, the four early states have no official dates yet. They are always among (if not) the last states to settle the dates for their contests. But the national parties have done a reasonable job during the 2016 and 2020 cycles of informally coordinating the calendar and keeping potential rogue states outside of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina in line. If one assumes that that holds in 2024, then one can project where those protected four states will end up. 

Iowa would kick things off on February 5 with the primary in New Hampshire following eight days later on February 13 based on the last couple of cycles. Now, moving on to Nevada and South Carolina is where things get a bit messier. While the two parties have agreed that Nevada and South Carolina would be among the earliest group of states, they have yet to agree on how to order the pair of states added to the early calendar for the first time in 2008. Democrats have tended to slot the Silver state caucuses third and the Palmetto state primary fourth, just before Super Tuesday. But Republicans, on the other hand, have always placed South Carolina's first-in-the-South primary third with Nevada bringing up the early calendar rear. 

When both parties have competitive nomination races -- not a given for 2024 -- then the South Carolina Republican primary and Nevada Democratic caucuses have tended to fall on the same date. But the Nevada Republican caucuses have been less settled. FHQ has opted to tentatively place it alongside the Democratic caucuses in the Silver state to start for a couple of reasons. One is that those Republican caucuses have been all over the place on the calendar. But second, there is also talk of a transition to a primary in Nevada. Such a move would make it more likely that the Democratic and Republican contests would fall on the same date as in the vast majority of primary states. But again, that would potentially leave the very date on which that contest falls more uncertain. 

That is why these dates on the FHQ calendar are all tentative (based on past information) at this point. All of this, including the order, number and identity of the early states (if any) on any rules the two national parties finalize in the summer of 2022. 


2. There are also at this time a couple of states -- Louisiana and New York -- that have contests on the books that would run afoul of the (likely) national party delegate selection rules. And both are a function of local quirks. New York is seemingly the biggest threat on February 6, a day after tentative Iowa caucuses. But since 2008, when New York held a then-compliant primary on the first Tuesday in February, it has been the custom for the New York legislature to leave the February date as is until late in the legislative session the year before the presidential election. It is then, typically in June, that the legislature in consultation with the state parties drafts legislation to codify the delegate selection plan for both parties. Any law enacted thereafter expires at the end of the presidential election year (December 31) and the whole cycle begins anew. The Empire state, then, while scheduled for February 6 is currently non-compliant but no risk of going rogue. 

The quirk in Louisiana is but a calendar/cycle quirk. The presidential primary in the Pelican state is scheduled for the first Saturday in March. In most cycles, that position follows the first Tuesday in March when non-carve-out states are allowed by the national parties to begin holding primaries and caucuses. In 2024, however, the first Saturday of March precedes that first Tuesday in March. This is a small fix and will likely be reviewed in 2023, but the Louisiana primary as currently scheduled by state law would be non-compliant under the likely national party rules. 

All in all, this is a very limited group of rogue (but not really rogue) states to begin the cycle. Both are easy or routine fixes that will end up being non-controversial. 


3. Most of the states without official contest dates are caucus states or party-run primary states. Among that group, dates are rarely set in state party rules. Hawaii Republicans are the exception to that rule. Most state parties wait until the year before the presidential election to set a timeline for delegate selection in the plans they submit to the national parties for a green light. 

But there are also a handful of states and/or territories where the primary dates are unresolved on purpose. Georgia's legislature ceded the date-setting authority for its primary to the secretary of state for the 2012 cycle. That is akin to how New Hampshire handles the scheduling of its primary. And the primary in the Peach state can fall any time before the second Tuesday in June.  


4. Bear in mind that all of this is in flux. Some of these laws will change. In fact, there were a handful of states in 2020 that explored different dates, but none of them made any changes. That may give some indication of future maneuvering, but typically that action will not occur until 2023. That does not mean that there will not be legislation, successful or otherwise, that will will be introduced between now and then. But such legislation is rarely successful. The most urgency on the scheduling of primaries and caucuses comes after the national parties finalize their rules for the cycle and during the state legislative sessions that begin following the midterm elections. 


Friday, November 13, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/13/20) -- 306-232

Update for the afternoon of November 13.


The final calls were made on Friday afternoon with Georgia's 16 electoral votes going to Biden and North Carolina's 15 to Trump. That brings the final 2020 electoral vote tally to Biden 306, Trump 232, the exact same final total in 2016 but on opposite sides of the partisan line. 

The scorecard for FHQ was similar to the 2008 projection when we missed on Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska's second congressional district. Then, the polls-based projection understated Obama's strength. But in 2020 the projection understated President Trump's position in several states through the lens of the state-level polls. So whereas in 2008 the polls lagged behind the eventual winner's performance, in 2020, the issue was the opposite: running in front of the eventual winner. Although the FHQ projection had President-elect Biden winning Florida, Maine's second congressional district and North Carolina, he fell short in all three. 

But FHQ will have a more robust rundown of how the projection in the days to come. For now, the wait is on for state-level certification, the Electoral College vote in December, the congressional count in early January and inauguration on January 20, 2021. All that will occur in the next 68 days.


Thursday, November 12, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/12/20) -- Biden Adds Arizona

 Update for the evening of November 12.


Another batch of counted votes out of Arizona was enough to push President-elect Biden over the the top in the Grand Canyon state on Thursday night. Biden claims the state's 11 electoral votes -- the first time for a Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 -- after President Trump ran out of uncounted ballots to realistically (mathematically) eliminate the narrow deficit separating him and his successor.

Georgia and North Carolina now stand as the only uncalled states. The Peach state enters a hand-counted recount on Friday. Results in North Carolina are now imminent. Counties across the Tar Heel state will finalize their unofficial counts throughout the day on Friday following the deadline on Thursday (November 12) for mail-in ballots postmarked by election day to arrive.


Wednesday, November 11, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/11/20) -- Alaska Raises Trump's Total

 Update for the morning of November 11.


New tranche of counted ballots in the Last Frontier puts Alaska in President Trump's column. 

Biden leads in Arizona (no consensus call) and Georgia (uncalled with upcoming hand recount) while Tump has the edge in North Carolina (uncalled but results likely after November 12 deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive).

To this point, the 2020 map looks like the 2016 map with the exception of Biden flips in Michigan, Nebraska's second congressional district, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


Saturday, November 7, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/7/20) -- Biden Tops 270

 Update for November 7 (afternoon).


Calls in Pennsylvania and Nevada in relatively quick succession put former Vice President Biden over the top.


Friday, November 6, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/6/20) -- Morning Update

Update for the morning of November 6.


No calls on Thursday, but...
Trump continued to gain ground in the vote count in Arizona.
Biden overtook Trump in the vote count in Georgia.
Biden continued to gain ground in the vote count in Pennsylvania.


Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/4/20) -- Afternoon Update

Update for the afternoon of November 4.


Multiple outlets have called:
Maine CD2 for Trump
Wisconsin for Biden
Michigan for Biden

Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania remain unsettled.

The Electoral College Map (11/4/20) -- Results


 

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/3/20) -- Election Day

Update for November 3. 
[Updating throughout the day. Scroll down for final margins in states as they go final]





Final FHQ Margins -- 11/3/20 (*flip from 2016)
State
MarginRating
Alabama
+20.07
Strong Trump
Alaska
+6.40
Lean Trump
Arizona*
+2.86
Toss Up Biden
Arkansas
+25.63
Strong Trump
California
+29.26
Strong Biden
Colorado
+12.83
Strong Biden
Connecticut
+24.59
Strong Biden
Delaware
+26.48
Strong Biden
Florida*
+2.94
Toss Up Biden
Georgia*
+0.47
Toss Up Biden
Hawaii
+30.77
Strong Biden
Idaho
+22.58
Strong Trump
Illinois
+16.98
Strong Biden
Indiana
+11.31
Strong Trump
Iowa
+0.79
Toss Up Trump
Kansas
+9.75
Lean Trump
Kentucky
+13.52
Strong Trump
Louisiana
+18.61
Strong Trump
Maine
+13.36
Strong Biden
Maine CD1
+22.75
Strong Biden
Maine CD2*
+1.73
Toss Up Biden
Maryland
+31.54
Strong Biden
Massachusetts
+36.76
Strong Biden
Michigan*
+7.25
Lean Biden
Minnesota
+8.72
Lean Biden
Mississippi
+16.26
Strong Trump
Missouri
+7.14
Lean Trump
Montana
+7.53
Lean Trump
Nebraska
+11.65
Strong Trump
Nebraska CD2*
+6.06
Lean Biden
Nevada
+4.26
Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire
+10.61
Strong Biden
New Jersey
+19.86
Strong Biden
New Mexico
+11.04
Strong Biden
New York
+29.24
Strong Biden
North Carolina*
+1.85
Toss Up Biden
North Dakota
+25.20
Strong Trump
Ohio
+1.26
Toss Up Trump
Oklahoma
+25.05
Strong Trump
Oregon
+20.05
Strong Biden
Pennsylvania*
+5.14
Lean Biden
Rhode Island
+21.79
Strong Biden
South Carolina
+6.83
Lean Trump
South Dakota
+19.75
Strong Trump
Tennessee
+16.62
Strong Trump
Texas
+1.49
Toss Up Trump
Utah
+13.10
Strong Trump
Vermont
+38.27
Strong Biden
Virginia
+12.08
Strong Biden
Washington
+24.18
Strong Biden
Washington, DC
+78.25
Strong Biden
West Virginia
+27.32
Strong Trump
Wisconsin*
+6.69
Lean Biden
Wyoming
+38.22
Strong Trump